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Scientist: the second wave of coronavirus in Russia is unlikely
The second wave of coronavirus in Russia will most likely not be, said Agasi Tavadyan, an expert on statistics and modeling of the Center for Economic Research. It is typical only for countries whose residents observed strict quarantine.
As told RIA News Agassi Tavadyan, in Russia, less than 80% of the population observed quarantine. Due to the lack of discipline, there will be a long “tail” of the epidemic with a significant number of infections. But the second wave as such will not be, the expert said.
At the same time, in his opinion, the incidence will remain at the same level until 70% of residents get sick so that collective immunity develops, or until a vaccine appears. The vaccination campaign can begin, according to the scientist, not earlier than in a year.
According to Tavadyan, out of 150 vaccines that are being developed in the world, only 23 have passed the stage of research in humans. There are only four drugs in the final stages of research, and only one is approved for mass vaccination. At the same time, the logistics and production issues have not yet been worked out, and work with the population has not been carried out.
At the same time, as the expert specified, if collective immunity is formed, then the vaccine may not be needed. But in Russia this will not happen until September due to strict quarantine measures and artificial understatement of patients due to restrictions.
Earlier, the virologist, doctor of medical sciences Anatoly Altstein said that would happen this fall. At the same time, if you stop fighting the first wave now, then it will simply immediately grow into the second.