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Scientists suggest three scenarios for the development of the coronavirus pandemic
The coronavirus epidemic will develop in one of three scenarios. This forecast was voiced by specialists from the Center for Research and Policy on Infectious Diseases at the University of Minnesota in the United States. They suggest that outbreaks of the new disease could last until 2022.
As reported RIA News, one of the scenarios is called “Peaks and Valleys”. He suggests that in the summer, under the influence of high temperatures, which reduce the activity of the virus, the pandemic will decline, but will return again in the fall.
The second option, Autumn Peak, will be similar to the Spanish flu epidemic, which hit 100 million people 500 years ago and killed at least 17 million people on the planet. The autumn wave will be much stronger than the spring one and by the end of 2020, COVID-19 will infect most of humanity.
The third scenario - “Slow burnout” would be the most optimistic, the peak incidence rate has already been reached, and the virus will begin to weaken in waves. However, scientists call it unlikely, since the onset of the pandemic, only about 5% of the world's population have been ill with the coronavirus, and at least 60% is necessary for the formation of collective immunity.