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Central Bank: Far East will be least affected by pandemic

Central Bank: Far East will be least affected by pandemic
The Bank of Russia made a forecast for the state of the Russian economy after a pandemic for the next three years and lowered its key rate by 50 percentage points. According to the forecasts of the regulator, inflation will accelerate, and GDP will decline. At the same time, it is emphasized - it is not yet clear how long the restrictions due to coronavirus will last.

The report of the Bank of Russia, presented to the board of directors, was based on the statistics of Rosstat at the end of April. The Central Bank says that Siberia and the Far East will be least affected, where due to the coronavirus pandemic, not such strict restrictions have been introduced as in central Russia.

At the same time, experts clarify that the deep recession in the world economy will recover after the resumption of transportation, the recovery in oil prices and the lifting of restrictions due to the coronavirus pandemic. According to the accepted baseline scenario, one non-working month will cost Russia's GDP 1,5-2% of annual GDP. 

The Central Bank predicts a decrease in GDP of 4–6% according to the results of 2020 with a subsequent increase of 2,8–4,8% in 2021 and 1,5–3,5% in 2022. The Russian economy will return to the pre-crisis level by the end of 2021 - the beginning of 2022. Earlier gave the same forecast Chairman of the Board of Otkrytie Bank Mikhail Zadornov.

Along with the economic decline, inflation will also accelerate. By December 2020, it may be about 3,8-4,8%. Together with it, prices will rise, which will begin to recover only by the second half of 2021.
September 25: current information on coronavirus in the Far East
Digest of regional events and latest statistics