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Ministry of Economic Development: two years to recover the economy

Ministry of Economic Development: two years to recover the economy
The head of the Ministry of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov announced forecasts for the restoration of Russia's GDP to a pre-crisis level. According to him, reaching the pre-crisis level will only be in the first half of 2022.

According to Interfax, experts of the Ministry of Economic Development based in their economic recovery program on the experience of China, which earlier than anyone began to remove restrictions due to coronavirus. Now in the Middle Kingdom, the economy has recovered up to 75% of its GDP.

There are many misunderstandings in assessing the economic consequences for Russia. According to Maxim Reshetnikov, the forecasts have not been so different: by the end of the year, the economic downturn may be from 2% to 5% according to various estimates. Because of this, the current forecast will be updated by August.

According to current ministry estimates, the Russian economy will show a decline of 2020% of GDP in 5. Then, recovery growth of 2,8% will begin in 2021. In 2022, GDP will grow by 3%, and in 2023 - by another 3,1%. According to forecasts, the main drop is due to coronavirus restrictions: in the second quarter of this year, GDP will decrease by 9,5% in annual terms, in the third quarter a decrease is expected at 6,3%, in the fourth - by 5,2%.

Together with GDP, investment in fixed assets will also fall. In 2020, the decline will be 12%, and in 2021 this figure will show an increase of 4,9%. Growth will continue in the years 2022-2023 - by 5,6-5,7% per year.

Also, according to the macroeconomic forecast of the ministry, a drop in industrial production is expected. This year, industry will decline by 5,4%, but it will begin to recover quickly: in 2021 and 2022, experts forecast growth by 3,3% per year, and in 2023 - by 3,4%.
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