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Experts: quarantine month will cost Russia 3-6% of GDP
Five weeks declared non-working from March 30 to April 30 will accelerate the fall of the Russian economy, economists say. Such "holidays" without specific measures to support business will cost the country up to 6% of GDP.
According to RBC, economists suggest several possible scenarios by the end of the year. Alfa Bank experts suggest that immediately after five weeks of quarantine, GDP will decline by 6%. According to the optimistic scenario, if the epidemic can be controlled quickly, the Russian economy will lose 1% of GDP by the end of the year, if quarantine is prolonged, then losses will amount to 3-6% of GDP, according to various estimates.
At the same time, freezing the work of the service sector will reduce economic activity by 20%. One week of quarantine costs the economy 500-600 billion rubles, the chief economist of the Expert RA rating agency Anton Tabakh calculated. A group of economists, including Konstantin Sonin and Sergey Guriev, published an open letter calling for the introduction of strict quarantine, mass testing for coronavirus and large-scale measures to support the public and business. Only in this case, according to their forecasts, the 2020 crisis will be short-term and the economy will recover quickly. Among the necessary support measures, economists offer one-off payments to pensioners and the poor. The total amount of necessary costs will be about five to ten trillion rubles.
According to estimates of large retail chains in Russia, the consumer market will fall to the level of the XIX century. In the regions, bans were introduced for the next month on the sale of goods of the non-food sector, with the exception of essential goods.