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Bank "Otkritie": the increase in the Central Bank rate will not affect loans
Otkritie Bank does not forecast a strong impact on interest rates on loans and deposits from changes in the key rate of the Central Bank. It may increase by 7% in the near future.
According to Maxim Petronevich, senior economist at the Otkritie Research analytical department of Otkritie Bank, the increase may be 25 bp. and amount to 7%. The main increase in prices was due to three commodity groups: meat and meat products, fruits and vegetables, cars. However, the growth in domestic demand has slowed down.
Petronevich also noted that the introduced epidemiological restrictions will not have a significant impact on the forecast of macro indicators in 2022. However, they can become decisive when making a decision to raise the Central Bank rate.
After the weekly inflation rate steadily exceeded 0,2% per week, the market began to prepare to raise the key rate to 7,5%. If this rate of inflation remains unchanged, by the end of October it may reach 7,8%.
However, Otkritie Bank does not expect the key rate to rise by more than 25 bp. One of the main reasons is that the tightening of monetary policy will not have a significant impact on price movements. Also, many domestic sectors of the economy have slowed down, the nominal income of the population is growing mainly due to the growth of social budget spending and the boom in lending. And the third reason: a change in the key rate may lead to an increased interest of non-residents in the Russian market. This trend could weaken the ruble in the event of aggravation of geopolitical relations.
At the same time, interest rates on deposits and loans are mostly determined by the OFZ rate, and the current level of 3-liter OFZ yield (7,5-7,6%) suggests that there is potential for additional growth of rates by 10-20 bp. compared with the current level of the maximum deposit rate (6,44%). OFZ rates will also determine the dynamics of lending rates for the least risky categories of loans and borrowers with the most reliable profile. However, taking into account the tightening of standards, the growth of rates will also affect consumer unsecured lending.