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Analysts: Far East reaches peak coronavirus incidence

Analysts: Far East reaches peak coronavirus incidence
The Far Eastern regions reached the peak incidence of coronavirus. Analysts who developed predictive models of COVID-19 incidence in the regions came to such data.

According to RBC, the models were presented by two analytical product development companies: Megaputer Intelligence and scientists from the design office of Ufa Aviation University and Bashkir Medical University. They analyzed data from open sources using machine learning and predictive analysis algorithms. The severity of the quarantine measures taken was also taken into account in the analysis.

According to Megaputer Intelligence, some Far Eastern regions, territories of central Russia, the Northwest and the Volga region have already reached maximum incidence rates. According to the optimistic forecast, the peak incidence rate in Moscow was reached on May 6, and according to the pessimistic forecast, the peak is expected on May 26, when 6,2 thousand new cases per day can be recorded.

Scientists from Ufa came to approximately the same conclusion: according to Russia, according to their data, the peak incidence rate was May 8–9. The same situation in certain regions: first, an increase in the incidence is observed, then, thanks to the early introduction of restrictions, it stabilizes. After this, outbreaks occur in places of population concentration. By mid-May, according to analysts, the incidence reached a peak.

Moreover, even in large regions where the growth of cases continues and the situation with the epidemic remains tense, the number of people who have recovered grows faster than the number of those who become infected. According to scientists from Ufa, classical mathematical models were used for analysis, the accuracy of which in the horizon of seven to ten days reaches 96-97%.
July 13: current information on coronavirus in the Far East
Digest of regional events and latest statistics