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Analysts have estimated the impact of coronavirus on the Russian economy
The Russian economy may suffer from coronavirus due to cheaper oil. These conclusions were reached by Citi analysts. According to them, the economic consequences of the infection can nullify the effect of Putin's promised support measures to the population.
According to Citi forecasts, due to a drop in passenger traffic by 70% and freight traffic by 40%, Chinese oil imports will decrease by three million barrels per day. Russia accounts for about 15% of imported raw materials.
Citi Referenced Analysts "Vedomosti", lowered the forecast for the price of a barrel of Brent by $ 11 in 2020. This may slow down the growth of Russian GDP by 0,28 percentage points to 1,72%. At the same time, Vladimir Putin’s proposals to increase social support for the population would accelerate him by as much.
The Ministry of Economic Development had similar estimates, while the agency estimated the costs of new support measures at 383 billion rubles in 2020. According to Citi analysts, if the virus continues to spread, then new costs can only become countercyclical support for economic activity.