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Health, diaspora, control of residents
The resettlement of a million people from the Caucasus to the Far East will not contribute to the development of the region - an expert
On the eve of the All-Russian conference "Demographic Development of the Far East" Svetlana Mishchuk, head of the Laboratory for Mathematical Modeling of Dynamics of Regional Systems of the Institute for Complex Analysis of Regional Problems, Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, answers questions of EastRussia correspondent.
- Svetlana Nikolaevna, how do you assess the migration situation in the Far East? How much are the tendencies to decrease the outflow of population?
- At present, the overall migration situation has not changed. The positive dynamics associated with a decrease in the migration loss of the population in the first half of 2016 is not indicative and may be associated with the peculiarities of natural growth in previous years (a surge or decline in the birth rate is possible, which has influenced the migration mobility of the population at present), with deterioration in the financial situation of the Far East, which does not allow them to migrate, etc.
With regard to the Amur region, it can be assumed that the increase in the outflow of population in previous years was due to the construction of the Vostochny cosmodrome (the population feared the influence of heptyl, which, combined with the low level of social and economic development of the region, increased the migration outflow). Perhaps in 2016, the population refers to the "cosmodrome" more calmly.
For a full analysis of the current situation, it is necessary to consider the movement of the population in the federal districts of the Russian Federation, and to assess the territorial structure of external migration (with the countries of the near and far abroad).
- Do you have information about who these people are who come to the Far East today? How many of them? Why do they go?
- Traditionally, people came to the Far East to earn money and leave. In the region formed a kind of social community. Which is focused on constant variability - the so-called “flow culture” [the term proposed by L.E. Blyakher in the article The need for nationalism, or national identity in the Russian Far East, - note. ER]. Alas, at present the situation has not changed - the main goal of coming to the Far East is to solve financial problems. The territorial structure of migrants coming to the Far East is dominated by citizens of the CIS countries, primarily - Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Azerbaijan, Armenia.
The entry of individual countries into the Single Economic Union expands the opportunities for migration of citizens from the member countries of the Union (for example, Kyrgyzstan).
- What are the trends regarding the migration of foreign citizens? From Central Asia? From China?
- On the whole, it is difficult to talk about the overall situation in the Far East, as the situation in the regions has its differences. The construction of facilities for the APEC summit led to an increase in the number of Uzbeks in Primorsky Krai. After the completion of the construction, not all of them left, thereby forming a large diaspora. Migrants from Tajikistan are quite active in the EAO, as they occupy a stable economic niche in the region, generally not competing with representatives of other diasporas. In the Sakhalin Region (Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk) a fairly large number of migrants from Kyrgyzstan.
In my opinion, the number of migrants from China remains at the same level.
The main spheres of attracting Chinese capital and migrants are agriculture, construction, and production.
At the same time, one of the options for attracting migrants in addition to the approved quotas is the attraction of highly qualified specialists from abroad. Most often, managers, managers of enterprises are involved in the quality of such specialists. However, the share of this category of migrants is insignificant. At the same time, it is extremely important to assess the migration processes from the far abroad countries taking into account the investment activity of the countries in question, as the practice of attracting foreign citizens to a company with foreign capital is quite common.
- How much is the demand for foreign labor in the Far East against the background of the devaluation of the ruble?
- In the Russian Far East, there is a shortage of labor resources. Compensate for it at the expense of internal reserves (attracting workers from other regions of Russia) is unlikely. The devaluation of the ruble has led to the replacement of labor migrants by the local population, but far from everywhere. Migrants from the DPRK began to be involved, since their wages are lower than those of Chinese migrants.
Attracting foreign workers is an easier solution. But this is a short term option. If we are planning a long-term progressive development of the Russian Far East, then we must remember the need to introduce innovative low-cost (in terms of labor resources) technologies. Lack of labor resources (to a greater degree - low and moderately qualified, which were attracted from abroad) can and should be solved technologically, and not by manual labor.
- How many migrants from China are receiving in the Far East now? From North Korea?
- This is a difficult question, since the remuneration of migrants is not always "transparent". Chinese migrants are most often paid by employers on Russian territory the minimum established by law in the Russian Federation. The rest of the workers receive in China.
I cannot talk about specific amounts, especially the salary level depends on the type of activity. But, for example, a cook in a Chinese restaurant receives about 200 thousand rubles.
- How do you assess the prospect of the demand for the rule of law on the possibility of attracting foreign workers to enterprises in TOPs in excess of regional quotas?
- Of course, this norm will be in demand on the part of investors and residents of TOPs. However, there is concern about the increasing role of labor migrants while the share of the local population at work in the ASEZ is decreasing. Official information on the situation on the labor market of the Far Eastern regions and the real situation may differ.
- How realistic are the goals announced by the Minsk Territory to stabilize the population at the level of 6,2-6,3 million people by 2020 and ensure conditions for further growth to 8 million people?
- In my opinion, the population growth to 8 million people is unlikely. Perhaps, given the positive dynamics of natural and migratory growth, this population will be reached, but in a more remote perspective. So, the maximum population in the Far East was 8,06 million people in 1991, and decreased by 2 million people in 25 years. Achieving the same indicators, but in the opposite direction, for 4 years - is unrealistic, even based on objective indicators. In modern conditions, the socio-economic situation, the standard of living of the population is much inferior to the corresponding indicators in the European part of Russia, which has a negative impact on the consolidation of the population in the Far East. Proceeding from this, it can be said that, given the implementation of measures to improve the investment climate, improve the quality of life in the Far Eastern regions (including the health care system, education, transport, etc.), we can expect a decrease in migration loss and stabilization of the population Level 6,2 million people.
- There were proposals for the mass resettlement of people from labor-surplus regions (the same North Caucasus) to the Far East. It's real?
- Such proposals sounded, they want to attract almost to 1 million people, give them the opportunity to get education, etc. This will certainly not contribute to the development of the Far East. It must be understood that migrants will not stay in the region in the current socio-economic situation, low level and quality of life in the Far East. It turns out that the funds spent will not reach the goal - there will be no increase in the permanent population in the Russian Far East.
In my opinion, it is necessary to increase the attractiveness of the region not only in terms of receiving wages and financial benefits, but also in terms of the benefits of permanent residence on its territory. And in this context, it is necessary to create conditions for raising the level of skills or obtaining the necessary education by the local population, to carry out measures of preferential housing purchase (possibly in rent as on Sakhalin), and create real opportunities for the residents of the Far East to travel to the central part of Russia for rest.
- Please, name 3-5 the most important measures to be implemented in the Far East within the framework of demographic policy.
- First, to solve the issue of providing health services in medium and small settlements. There is currently a shortage of doctors and medical personnel. Working personnel do not always take advanced training courses, which negatively affects the quality of treatment of patients. The high mortality rate can be reduced by early qualified diagnosis of diseases. The construction of federal centers does not solve the problem of prevention and treatment of diseases at the initial stages, therefore it is extremely important to resolve issues with the availability of medical services.
Secondly, it is necessary to carefully monitor inter-ethnic relations in the macro-region.
In the national structure of the regions of the Far East, there is an increase in the share of migrants (both for the purpose of employment and for the purpose of permanent residence) from the countries of Central Asia, which may aggravate inter-ethnic relations.
Thirdly, monitoring and control over the activities of TOR residents is necessary. The improvement of economic indicators does not reflect an improvement in the living standards of the local population and an increase in the attractiveness of the territory. If we are talking about a demographic policy, the creation of preferential terms for residents of TORs should lead to the formation of a positive image of the Far Eastern regions in terms of living in them.
Finally, it is necessary to constantly assess the internal structure of the macroregion from the point of view of the more active development of some territories and the possible weakening of others. Such a transformation will require measures for the relocation of people, their retraining, etc.
- Is there enough now developed measures to reverse the situation?
- Quantitatively, perhaps enough. It is important to evaluate the quality of the activities. In my opinion, the problem lies in the generalization of problems and ways to solve them. The concept of demographic development of the Far East is being developed as a whole for the macroregion. However, the subjects have differences in the demographic situation. Each region requires an individual approach. Perhaps it is difficult in terms of implementation, but this is the only way to correctly assess the situation and address problems.
To live in the Far East - it is necessary to love and know that it is mutual. And reciprocity can be created with the help of population policy measures! The implementation of regional demographic development programs, if I am not mistaken, is financed independently by the subject of the federation, and this initially dooms the underdeveloped regions to a negative result.