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"A noticeable decline in the quality of life of Russians will begin in 2016 year"
Andrey AkhremenkoHead of the Laboratory of Mathematical Methods of Political Analysis and Forecasting of the Faculty of Political Science of the Moscow State University
The “average” dynamics of the Far Eastern constituent entities of the Federation almost exactly repeats the all-Russian one, with only one insignificant, but important difference: the general tendency towards a decline in growth is seen more clearly in the region, despite a slight rise in 2013. On average in Russia, the level of quality of life achieved in 2013 turned out to be the highest in all recent years, and overall growth is still continuing. However, in the Far East, the rise in the last year only compensated for the previous decline; a new “historical maximum” was not achieved. Thus, so far there is no reason to count on the region's transition to a “catch-up development” trajectory.
The most significant factor that caused the backlog of the Far East from Russia as a whole is the health situation of the population. This applies to both indicators, which in our study constitute the health index: infant "survival" and life expectancy at birth. At the same time, if the dynamics of life expectancy in the Far Eastern Federal District roughly corresponds to the average Russian, the infant mortality rate is deteriorating.
The second factor of this lag is the level of security of citizens. Here, however, the regional dynamics looks encouraging: the lag behind the average level in the country, though slowly, but declining.
According to the indicators reflecting the ecological and social situation, the Far East is practically on par with Russia. And, unlike the housing and utilities sector, all the social indicators (poverty level, property inequality, unemployment) in the region are in full compliance with the average Russian indicators. The differences are so insignificant that they can not be taken into account.
In the Far East, as in previous years, two groups of regions are clearly distinguished - outsiders and leaders. If something is stable, then it is this division.
A relatively successful cluster includes the Sakhalin and Magadan regions, the Kamchatka, Khabarovsk and Primorsky regions. The word "comparative" sounds because in this group only one federal subject in 2013 managed to rise above the average for Russia's quality of life - the Sakhalin Region (by the way, in 2012 there were two such regions). A difficult situation with the quality of life can be called in the regions of the "lower" cluster, which includes the Amur Region, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), the Chukotka Autonomous District and the Jewish Autonomous Region.
From the point of view of the dynamics in the "successful" group, the leaders are Sakhalin and Magadan oblasts, which demonstrate growth rates above the national average. Some concern, on the contrary, is the development of Primorye, where in 2013 for the first time there was a decline in the quality of life.
In the group of outsiders, the most promising trajectory of the Amur region, where in 2013, there was the most significant increase in the quality of life indicator throughout the region. But the Jewish Autonomous Region demonstrated the strongest decline.