Irkutsk
Ulan-Ude

Blagoveshchensk
Chita
Yakutsk

Birobidzhan
Vladivostok
Khabarovsk

Magadan
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Anadyr
Petropavlovsk-
Kamchatsky
Moscow

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Helping people to save

At the VI International Conference "Demographic Development of the Far East", they found recipes for increasing the population of the Far Eastern Federal District.

Captain Obvious missed the event, but his spirit hovered over the panel sessions. The main message is that more money should be invested in supporting families. At least 3% of GDP, and preferably more. The moderator of one of the sessions, Natalya Moskvitina, and a South Korean expert who spoke on the topic "Health of the Far East" made a difference - he was able to surprise everyone.   

Helping people to save
Photo Shoot: OpenClipart-Vectors from the website Pixabay

Dexterity of numbers and optimism

Opening the conference, its moderator Sergei Rybalchenko, general director of the Institute of Scientific and Public Expertise, admitted without reservations that the goals of the concept of demographic policy in the Far East had not been achieved. The plans were to stabilize the population at the level of 8,3 million people, the fact as of January 1, 2021 - 8,12 million residents of the Far Eastern Federal District. There is a high mortality as a cause, a negative natural increase, and the same negative migration. This is such a paradox - negative growth. On presentation slides, natural growth is measured by a number with a minus sign in front of it. The word “decline” is obviously too discordant with a positive aspiration for the future. Or maybe this is not a sociological term at all.


Image - freeze frame of the broadcast of the conference "Demographic Development of the Far East"

But you can't live with one negative. It is necessary to focus on the good, on worthy examples. And now Sergei Rybalchenko notes that the number of average births per woman on average in the Far East over the past three years from 2017 to 2020 was 1,7, with a target of 1,983. Once again - from 2017 to 2020! However, then he suddenly cites figures for Sakhalin for 2016 - this year there was recorded an indicator of 2,16 births per woman! No, this is not a distortion of the facts. And the title of the slide carries a positive impulse "The basis for decisions for an optimistic scenario: evidence-based practice (Sakhalin Oblast)".


Image - freeze frame of the broadcast of the conference "Demographic Development of the Far East"

“This example, - stressed Sergei Rybalchenko, - we cite not only in this audience, but also at the federal level, as the region that actually set a world record for the possibility of growth rates in the birth rate - the total fertility rate”.

All this happened thanks to measures to support large families. True, then the indicators worsened, but it's a fact. Although not from the initially stated range. The inside story is simple - in Sakhalin, as the speaker noted, they were able to allocate 1,55% of GDP to support families (if recalculated for the whole country), which, with federal support measures, would have amounted to 2,7% of GDP. And this is close to the planned indicator of the demographic concept - there is 3% of GDP.

The conclusion is simple and not new - invest more money in supporting families, you will get an increase in the birth rate. Only Sakhalin has been one of the most successful and non-subsidized Far Eastern regions for a long time thanks to oil and gas projects. Last year, due to their curtailment, the regional budget missed 44 billion rubles. And other regions did not have that kind of money. But who needs such subtleties when the gain is negative?

What to do - also, in general, has been known for a long time - for families without children or with one child, support measures for the purchase of housing or its construction are important, kindergartens are needed, monthly payments for meals for children under three years of age are needed, and compensation for summer expenses relaxation. The list is open. The budget is limited.

However, the demonstration of positiveness was not limited to only one indicator of the birth rate in Sakhalin. There are also gains in life expectancy at birth (life expectancy at birth). This parameter is not for everyone. And again, giving an immediate reason to think about it - in the Far East it is below the national average. 69,2 versus 71,5, but the main thing is dynamics. The more positive it is, the brighter the future. And there is something to talk about. For the period from 2016 to 2019, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) increased life expectancy by 2,16 years, and Kamchatka - by 1,9 years.

It was possible to increase life expectancy in Yakutia due to a decrease in mortality from external causes, Rybalchenko noted. “From 2017 to 2019, in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), mortality from external causes decreased by 21%, and from traffic accidents - by 18%, murders - by 33%, suicides - 24%. Mainly due to the implementation of the "Territory of Sobriety" project, which now covers more than 50% of all rural areas and 8% of the population. " In Kamchatka, life expectancy has also increased, thanks to a decrease in mortality from external causes - there are fewer deaths in road accidents - by 31%, by homicides by 18%, by suicides by 15%. ("Territory of sobriety" - the practice of introducing "dry law" in settlements on the basis of a collective decision voluntarily adopted by residents at a gathering of citizens - ed.)

The increased safety in transport and its importance for the national economy was also noted by Natalia Agra, director of the Institute for the Study of Childhood, Family and Education of the Russian Academy of Education. “Indeed, in fact, the very economic middle class, our youth, who are the very parents, are dying in car accidents,” she stressed.


Image - freeze frame of the broadcast of the conference "Demographic Development of the Far East"

Life expectancy statistics were spoiled by the 2020th year. Although it appears in the table, it is not indicative, pandemic. If you look from 2016 to 2020 in the Primorsky and Khabarovsk Territories - the most densely populated for a minute in the Far East - the life expectancy in the first case remained at the same level, and in the second it dropped altogether - from 69,13 to 68,6. But this is a pandemic. If you look at 2019 - an undoubted growth - 70,05 would have lived a resident of the Khabarovsk Territory, born the year before last.

Their morals

Speakers from France, China, Serbia and South Korea gave internationality to the representative forum.

The choice of an expert from a country where same-sex marriage has been legalized since 2013 might seem strange to an uninformed viewer, but exactly until he learned that since 2018 France has been ranked first in Europe in terms of births per woman. In 2010, it was 2.029, then declined, but nevertheless amounted to 1.83 children per woman in 2020. Independent and critical experts note that this is the merit of Muslim migrants, who traditionally have large families. But they also receive benefits. In addition, France allocates 5% of GDP to support families - and this is not counting education and health care, Russian plans do not go beyond 3% so far.

Daniel Mathieu, an employment and family expert at the French Ministry of Labor, listed eight factors that make the country so successful in shaping family policy. This is, first of all, the already named significant and varied in forms of financial assistance - 85 billion € (7 billion rubles) in 650, social assistance, tax incentives. A separate line of assistance to families with children up to three years old, and the creation of a childcare and supervision system for working parents.
“If I were asked to make one proposal - just one - as a conclusion for this conference, I would say the following: find solutions adapted to the conditions of the Russian Far East to develop a system of care for young children whose parents are working. These can be certified nannies, they can be new forms of creches, such as a creche at enterprises, but which are located near the workplace, and close to home - this works in France. This helped to solve the issue of caring for 60% of children under three years old, - said Daniel Mathieu.

The French expert also noted that one of the key points of the effectiveness of family policy in his homeland is the presence of the National Family Benefits Fund. This is a foundation, which is a legal entity of the family sector of family support - this organization is responsible for the payment of all types of benefits and material assistance, and for the development of the system of childcare and childcare, including the education and certification of nannies, and for advising families with children on all the details. and possible support options.

An unexpected statement was made by the following international expert - Ding Jinhong, director of the Institute for Demographic Research of the East China Normal University, a member of the Committee on Population, Resources and Ecology at the People's Political Consultative Council of the People's Republic of China: “The organizers asked me to talk about what is being done in China in the field of increasing fertility. It seems to me that this topic is rather difficult in China, we have more discussions on this topic than any actions. In general, we could learn from you - from Russia and from France. It is you who are taking steps in this direction. " The Chinese speaker lamented that even the relaxation of state policy, which made it possible to have two or even three children, did not lead to an increase in the birth rate. “2013th year - we see the figure of 16 million, the peak value in 2016 - 17 million, after that the indicators crept down in 2020 - last year, when the population census was carried out - the increase was only 12 million. We see a gradual gradual decline in growth. " There is no need to worry about the lack of population in the PRC yet, but the low birth rate - 1,7 (as in the Far East - ed.) creates problems in terms of population aging. Ding Jinhong shared the reasons for the low birth rate - the late age of marriage, the reluctance of mothers to have children, and even said that the PRC has a similar tendency - residents of the provinces bordering the Far East of the Russian Federation, leave them - go to the southeast, to warmth. The Chinese scientist could not share effective recipes. He only mentioned that experiments are being carried out to organize a nursery, where you can take a child from the age of one year, and that there are proposals to introduce tax benefits for families with children.

What it takes for children to be born

Panel session “Modern Russian family as the basis of the state. How to inspire people and stop the population outflow from the Far East? " promised to clarify and explain what to do. Moderated by her mother with many children, the host of the TV channel "Spas" Natalia Moskvitina. She was the first to answer the burning questions by the Minister for the Development of the Far East and the Arctic, Alexei Chekunkov. And he shared his observation:

“Suddenly, the contours of the world appear, which are very favorable for our largest country in the world, for the Far East - the contours of the world where it is not necessary to live in a multi-million dollar metropolis to be happy, the contour of the world where it is important to be close to nature, where healthy is important. climate, healthy relationship with the environment, with sports. And in this sense, we have developed a simple formula for happiness, which we are trying to provide to all residents of the Far East. This is such a Far Eastern "Three D" - this is your Home, Dignity, Prosperity. " True, the fourth "D" was immediately added - from the word "must" - each Far East should have his own housing, and it should appear, thanks to measures to accelerate construction. Aleksey Chekunkov called self-realization, work that supports families, and is provided by over 2600 new enterprises that have started in the Far East over the past few years, as "dignity", and "prosperity" is a decent wage.

Since 2019, 47 thousand Far Eastern families have received a one-time payment at the birth of their first child in a double the amount of the subsistence minimum, more than 12 thousand families have received an additional payment of 30% for maternal capital, more than 50 thousand families have received a monthly payment at the birth of their third child, Alexey said. Chekunkov. And the TFR already mentioned above - the average fertility rate in the Far East is higher than the national average - 1,7 versus 1,5! Promising that the state will continue to support the young seven and "fill the economic engine with additional social measures."

Natalya Moskvitina's derived formula "House - Dignity - Prosperity" reminded another one attributed to the Kaiser of Germany Wilhelm II: "These" three Ds "are actually like, remember, in Germany" three Ks "- Kirche, Kinder and Kitchen, right? This is the kitchen, the church and the dresses, right? And we have "three D" - this is home, dignity and prosperity. So I think that the beginning has been made, we will move forward. " (there are different versions of the Germanic "three K" - Kirche, Kinder and Küche (German) - church, children, kitchen, however, there are other options - August 17, 1899, in the English "Westminster Gazette" there was a note "American ladies and the emperor. The four Ks of the Empress. " It described how William II met on his yacht with American women - supporters of civil equality for women. After listening to them, the Kaiser said: - I agree with my wife. And do you know what she says? That it is not a woman's business to do anything other than four "K" (...). These four "K" - Kinder, Kirche, Küche, Kleider [children, church, kitchen, dress] - approx. ed.)

Comparison of our "three D" with the German "three K" somewhat shaded the information announced earlier by Elena Mikhailova, director of research at VTsIOM. According to her, despite effective measures to improve the quality of life in the region, benefits, improvement of infrastructure, by the end of 2020 48% of residents would like to leave the Far Eastern Federal District, this is the highest indicator in recent years and 4% higher than in 2019 ...


VTsIOM infographics

At the same time, the share of parents who would like their children and grandchildren to stay in the same region turned out to be minimal since 2017, and the number of those who wish their heir a radical change of registration has increased - 33%.

Health bar with a touch of absurdity

The final chord of the conference was the discussion of the state of health of the Far Easterners. It does not shine, especially against the background of the high level of alcohol consumption and the general negligent attitude of the inhabitants of the region to their health. But the speakers, and among them Oleg Salagai, Deputy Minister of Health of the Russian Federation, and the representative of the World Health Organization (WHO) in Russia, Melita Vuinovich, and the chief freelance specialist of the Ministry of Health of the Russian Federation on reproductive health, Corresponding Member of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Professor Oleg Apolikhin, expressed cautious optimism, to improve the situation, if deep systematic work begins to change the worldview and attitude of the residents of the Far Eastern Federal District both to their own personal health and to the health of partners and the whole family.


Image - freeze frame of the broadcast of the conference "Demographic Development of the Far East"  

And you need to start from infancy, from kindergarten and school - from organizing healthy meals in schools, promoting healthy lifestyles and creating all the conditions for him so that the choice of health is an easy choice, not a problem. Regions - Yakutia, Sakhalin, shared their successful practices in creating "zones of sobriety" and cycle paths. Everything went according to plan until the floor was given to the speaker from South Korea - Park Sung Jin, senior vice president for industry and academic cooperation at the steel company POSCO. For eight minutes he talked about the company, about its performance, how it is concerned about the future, and about the university it founded. Separately and in detail, he dwelled on the creation of a venture ecosystem that helps new technologies enter the market and bring profit to its creators - from laboratories to the final implementation, about the system of financing research work ...

Here the session moderator - Arina Sudakova, curator of the Moscow International Salon of Education "New Culture of Public Health" - could not stand it.

- I would really like you to make a bunch of all these technologies with what you do to preserve health ... Because all these platforms, we understand them, we also study them, we look at trends. But the point is precisely from the point of view of capitalization - do you consider your company and the people inside as the main value? - she tried to instruct the speaker on the vector of the conference. - What are you doing to make your employees healthier?

- ABOUT! Okay. I will try to explain in more detail about the relationship of what I am talking about with health care. Do you want that? Yes?

- Yes!

“I thought we were talking about regional problems, not just health care, that's the point,” Park Sung Jin explained, “I guess I misunderstood, I didn’t quite properly prepare. But I will continue then ...

- We are very interested in your experience from the point of view of your attitude to a person, to the company's employees, as an element of global capitalization ...

- Okay. So - for new businesses, companies were originally created initially as research centers, now they started investing in startups, and you see that venture capital investments have grown incredibly. A lot now depends on digital technologies, data banks ...

The respected Park Sung Jin talked about artificial intelligence that can predict the future, heal diseases and the economy for another eight minutes, until the moderator forced him to admit that his company, on its own initiative, invested $ 10 million in the Korean healthcare system over the next 10 years. This money will also go to genetic research. It is a contribution to the future of the health care system.

“Our venture capital firms have to take care of the technological side of the healthcare system themselves. This will be the answer to your question, - summed up the guest from South Korea.   

 

Dry demographic balance


Nevertheless, proposals for improving the demographic situation were formulated. This is, first of all, the creation of the Future Generations of the Far East Fund, which should become a kind of analogue of the French National Family Benefit Fund, state investments in support of families with children should be at least 3-4% of GDP, and 6% of GDP for health care ... All regions need to adopt the experience of increasing the birth rate on Sakhalin in 2016 and the experience of Yakutia in reducing mortality from external causes and increasing life expectancy - especially in terms of creating "sobriety territories". The main emphasis should be placed on supporting large families - they should account for at least 40% of all investments. In addition, maternity capital for large families should be increased to one million rubles - this measure, experts hope, will double the birth rate of the third child in the family. The main non-financial areas should be the creation of support for working parents, the development of the institution of certified nannies, so that moms and dads can create a gross regional product, being calm about their children.

September 18: current information on coronavirus in the Far East
Digest of regional events and latest statistics