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"The emphasis should be on attracting foreigners"
Experts of the conference "The demographic development of the Far East" - how to solve the problem with personnel in the macro-region, why the Chinese are leaving and what to do with the outflow of qualified specialists.
Yuri Avdeev, Leading Researcher, Laboratory of Social and Medical Geography, Pacific Institute of Geography, Far East Branch, Russian Academy of Sciences
Unfortunately, the measures aimed at stimulating economic and social activity in the region, which are now being undertaken by both the embassy and the Ministry for the Development of the Far East, are chaotic and non-systemic. For example, TORs have nothing to do with areas of advanced development. It turns out not the territory, but the place where preferences are given for individual businesses. This is copied from the Chinese special economic zones, but in China there is a surplus population and therefore it was necessary to limit the SEZ regime and separate it from a large number of people. In the Far East, each person is on the account, and the territory of advanced development should be for everyone who engages in entrepreneurship.
According to the message of Vladimir Putin to the Federal Assembly of the Russian Federation, the Far East is recognized as a priority region for the entire XXI century. And what does the ministry offer as a priority? Exports of raw materials? What did we do before then? We essentially did the same.
Unfortunately, the same priority of development does not work. We are very seriously lacking what could be called the eastern policy of Russia. We have an ocean, there is a cosmodrome - these are the priorities that could become a locomotive not only for the Far East, but for the whole country. In addition, we need to solve the problem of manpower. When preparations were being made for the APEC-2012 summit, the cadres were using God knows from where - Mexico, Turkey, and only after a while guessed that there was China nearby.
Today, the Chinese will not go to us. If in 1960, the average level of salaries in the People's Republic of China was $ 10-12, then today it exceeds $ 600, and this figure has grown rapidly since 2000. In construction, where today a Chinese worker receives $ 1-1,5 thousand, which Russian employer will provide this level of income? We have lost this labor.
At the same time, 1 million people live in the radius of 300 thousand km from Vladivostok, and only the northeast provinces of China have at least 8 million unemployed. This labor force could be used. Not to mention the North Korean labor force. But the main problem for attracting Chinese people is wages.
When preparing for the APEC-2012 summit, the initial cost was 114 billion rubles, and then it grew, and grew to 680 billion, taking into account the investment of state companies. But even these amounts are not enough for us. Our experts have calculated the ratio between the cost of Vladivostok's human capital and the cost of the constructed infrastructure. And, in my opinion, this is one of the most important indicators, which explains why people leave here.
Human capital assessment includes average life expectancy, age characteristics, wages, incomes and other characteristics. So, for today the share of infrastructure is only 2,2% of the cost of human capital of Vladivostok. If you take Moscow - this is 9%, in London 25%. We decided: how much should I invest in infrastructure to reach even the level of 8%? It turned out that another 900 billion rubles. But the question is: who will master this all?
It is extremely important to solve the problem of infrastructural saturation of the territory, and this can be solved only by attracting foreign labor. There are no other options. From Siberia, we can attract only a small fraction, and this is the flow that will then return back. The emphasis should be on attracting foreigners. It may need to be done within a limited time frame. For example, at 10-15 years to create the maximum level of favor for attracting foreign labor. And to direct it not to where it goes - to trade, for example, but to equip infrastructure. Only in this case, we will be able to create attractive living conditions in the Far East, substantially change the current situation. And the most important is the sector associated with individual housing for young families. This is perhaps the most important measure for changing the demographic situation.
Alexey Firsov, Head of Consulting Projects, VCIOM
The Far Eastern labor market, by the recognition of both employers and recruiting agency specialists, is extremely scarce. At the same time, all market participants note this trend: the best employees leave for other regions of Russia. Regardless of whether these workers came here from other regions or countries, they are recruited here - after working for some time in the Far East, people are eager to leave the region in order to continue their career growth.
At the same time, employers talk about the weakness of the local labor market. If we talk about the management team, local cadres can not close the vacancies of large companies due to insufficient preparedness. Workers' specialties also remain vacant, but already due to low motivation of the local population.
The solution is the import of workers from other regions. But this is difficult to implement. At a nominal enough high salary in comparison with other regions of Russia purchasing power here is much lower. And when recruiting people from other regions, this is very clearly manifested. People come and look at life here, and they want to return to central Russia. At the same time, employees point to the unpreparedness of the social infrastructure: there are not enough kindergartens, medical institutions, it is difficult for them to solve housing problems.
Central Russia lives in the paradigm of the Chinese threat, but local employers say not about the arrival of the Chinese, but about their departure. There is an outflow of workers from the PRC, there is no one to replace them. Russians do not go to work specialties, the Chinese leave, there is hope for North Koreans, but it still remains in the theoretical plane. Ukraine is theoretically a good resource, but in reality people come, face a lot of systemic problems, try the local life and leave.