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Pipe all over the head
What will change the Far Eastern fuel market
The construction of branches from the ESPO-2 oil pipeline to the Khabarovsk and Komsomolsk oil refineries will be completed approximately in 2015-2016. Oilmen say that the "pipe" will be able to provide factories with a large amount of raw materials, and, consequently, the volume of production will also increase, besides, transport costs will fall by 30-35% compared to the delivery of oil by rail. However, independent oil traders and experts are not sure about this. They believe that, in addition to the "pipe", the Far Eastern market for fuels and lubricants can change the construction of two new refineries and the export of oil and oil products to the APR countries.
The timing of laying off the branches from ESPO-2 to two Far Eastern oil refineries has shifted more than once. If last year the media talked about building a branch to the Khabarovsk refinery (owned by NK Alliance) by the beginning of 2014, now the spokesman of the Allianz oil company Andrei Rumyantsev told East Russia about the "end of this year". The withdrawal to the Komsomolsk refinery (property of Rosneft Oil Company), according to the company, will be built in 2016.
At present, raw materials are delivered to both refineries by tanks by rail. Therefore, the construction of branches will be able to reduce transportation costs, oil workers are sure.
At the same time, transportation costs are not the only component of the price of fuel. "Specific costs for production - a factor less significant than the price of oil, tariffs, etc., so the pipe will not become magical," said A. Rumyantsev.
"The oil pipeline will allow to transport the necessary volumes of oil taking into account the modernization of the oil refineries," the press service of Rosneft told East Russia, but the company did not say anything about the volumes that will be delivered to the plant by the "pipe". By the way, not only West Siberian oil is transported to the KNPZ by rail, but also by Sakhalin through the Okha-Komsomolsk-on-Amur oil pipeline.
The candidate of economics, the head of the department of hydrocarbon resources and the forecast of the development of the oil and gas complex of the Institute of Petroleum Geology and Geophysics of the SB RAS Leontiy Eder agree with the oilmen.
Until the branches are built, and the KNZP and KhNPZ have not completed the modernization, the plants will not be able to fully supply the Far East with fuel.
"With respect to gasoline, KhNPZ and KHPZ can close about three quarters of the region's needs, in terms of DTs - completely," A. Rumyantsev said. Therefore, now the Far East market of fuels and lubricants needs the help of independent oil traders, they are engaged in small-scale fuel reselling from Rosneft and Alliance and through retail sales through their gas stations. The same one-third of the gasoline dealers are delivered to the Far East with Siberian refineries.
An independent oil trader, the owner of the company Biskur, Sergei Mikelov, believes that "with the availability of money, you can buy anything, but often purchased oil products are uncompetitive in the Far Eastern market. However, to date, the exchange is working. There was a period when Rosneft did not sell anything to private traders at all. " Nevertheless, in his opinion, Rosneft still does not benefit from buying fuel: the difference between petty-wholesale prices and retail prices per liter of gasoline and diesel fuel from Rosneft is less than a ruble.
“Rosneft’s oil depot in Khabarovsk often does not provide independent traders with sufficient fuel. Suppose I order 250 tons, but I get only 30. It is expensive to transport petroleum products from Siberian refineries because of transportation costs, but we have to, ”said S. Mikelov. He is confident that the construction of the drawbacks will not change the situation - “the monopolist will not lower the prices of products if his business profitability has increased. Only the market will force it to lower prices, and, in fact, there is no market for fuel and lubricants in the Far East, there is no competition. ”
"The capacity of this refinery in the amount of 1 million tons will not significantly affect the fuel market of the Far East, including the Khabarovsk Territory, since its share will not exceed 5-7% of the total capacity," Eder believes. - The main problem of the construction of such a plant will be the source of raw materials - crude oil. The company is unlikely to be able to obtain permission to connect to the trunk pipeline system of OAO AK Transneft. And the supply by rail will be associated with significant transportation costs at the final price of the goods. "
Last year, information appeared on the Alliance’s sale of the Khabarovsk refinery Rosneft. This was written by authoritative Russian media, but the representatives of oil companies did not officially confirm the information.
“First, we will complete the second stage of the reconstruction of the refinery, build a pipe. Then you can talk about the sale of the company. Currently, the company is not for sale (especially a separate plant), ”said A. Rumyantsev to an East Russia correspondent.
Rosneft did not comment on the situation at all. Independent traders are sure that the sale of the plant to the fuel market will not be better.
“If Alliance sells Rosneft to the refinery, the fuel market of the Far East will face complete monopolization. “The entire Russian market of oil products from Irkutsk to the east will pass into the hands of Rosneft,” S. Mikelov is sure. “Either Rosneft will create a monopoly in the Far East, or leave the Alliance logos at gas stations and will not change its pricing policy.”
VNHK is a petrochemical complex, which Rosneft laid near Nakhodka in the 2012 year. A significant part of the petrochemical products of the VNHK project is planned to be exported to the APR markets. For this purpose, the construction of the production of polymers is provided for in the petrochemical complex. "The project will also create a unique opportunity for the export of Russian-made final products with high added value to promising Asian markets," said Rosneft. The complex will operate on the "pipe", Rosneft plans to extend a branch from ESPO-2 to Nakhodka.
"The construction of VNKhK with the release of products with high added value can give the region a significant multiplier effect," commented L. Eder. "The impact on the domestic fuel market may not be so noticeable due to the orientation of production mainly for export to the APR countries."
Now with the KHPZ in the countries of the APR, Rosneft exports mainly dark oil products. "Alliance" also almost does not export auto fuel, according to A. Rumyantsev, "export programs are actually formed according to the residual principle".
In general, analysts are confident that Rosneft is able to increase the export of Russian oil to China.
"According to the forecast of INGG SB RAS, the total oil production in the East of Russia could amount to 2015 million tons in 56,6, 2020 million tons in 74,63, and 2030 million tons in 87,7," Eder said. - At the existing fields to be developed and planned for development, the production peak will be at the beginning of 2020, when oil production will increase from 35 to 71 million tons. This will be possible due to the introduction and reaching the designed capacity of the Vankor, Yurubcheno-Tokhomsky, Kuyumbinsky, Srednebotuobinsky , Suzunsky, Boat and Tagulskoye fields. All these sites are owned and controlled by Rosneft.
Oil production in Eastern Siberia by Rosneft in the open fields developed and prepared for development in 2020 will grow almost threefold from 25,7 to 60 million tons (+ 45 million tons to the current 25 million tons - note East Russia) and further Up to 65 million tons, the analyst believes. As a result, Rosneft will be able to meet its obligations to supply hydrocarbons to China.
East Russia Help
Oil refining in the Far East
Completion of modernization of the KHPP "Rosneft" plans in 2015, after that the plant will be able to process 8 million tons of oil per year. In 2013, the volume of oil refining at the plant amounted to 7,1 million tons of oil. According to Rosneft, gasoline production this year was limited to 474,6 thousand tons, diesel and marine fuel production amounted to almost 2,6 million tons. The volume of oil refining in 2012 amounted to 7,48 million tons, the plant produced 7,31 million tons of various petroleum products, from Which 1,41 million tons were gasoline, 2,07 million tons - DT.
As reported in the NC Alliance, in 2013 Khabarovsk refinery processed 4 391,8 thousand tons of oil, this is 11,6% more than in 2012 year, and produced a total of 4 283,7 thousand tons of petroleum products. In 2013, the plant produced 474,6 thousand tons of gasoline (13,4% more than last year), 281,6 thousand tons of diesel fuel (6% more than last year). Currently, KhNPZ is also undergoing reconstruction, in the future the plant will be able to process up to 6 million tons of oil per year.