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Tariff cut down
Reconstruction of BAM and Transsib can be delayed, despite the active construction in the current year
At the beginning of the week, the Kommersant newspaper published information that Russian Railways in 2017 will face a funding shortfall for its investment program, and one of the projects to be cut will be the modernization of BAM and Transsib. The newspaper's conclusions are based on the draft investment program of Russian Railways. According to the newspaper, in 2017 the total volume of the investment program of railway workers will fall by 31 billion, to 389 billion rubles, the deficit will amount to 85,6 billion rubles. Most of all, this will affect the project for the modernization of BAM and Transsib: its funding in 2017 will decrease by 53,4 billion rubles, budget funds and almost 40% of funding from Russian Railways will be completely removed.
In total, the project will receive 104,8 billion rubles - this is approximately equal shares of the money of the NWF and the company (the fund will allocate 52,8 billion rubles, taking into account the transfer of 2,8 billion rubles from the proceeds of 2015). Taking into account the projected decrease in the inflow of money from the budget, it follows from the project that the BAM and Transsib project will lose 118,3 billion rubles in three years.
It is noteworthy that Russian Railways did not comment on the publication of the newspaper. Just a few days before the publication, the EastRussia correspondent was also interested in the company about financing the modernization of BAM and Transsib and received the answer: "The project is being implemented by Russian Railways in a planned manner. There are no problems with financing."
+ 66,8 million tons of cargo to the level of 2012 year
Recall that the project for the development of the railway infrastructure of the East Polygon (Baikal-Amur and Trans-Siberian Railway) is being implemented by the Russian Railways since 2013. The project provides for the commissioning of additional main routes - a total length of more than 580 km, auto-lock - 680 km, as well as 43 crossings. In addition, the project includes the reconstruction of 90 railway stations - sorting, border, pre-port and priportovyh - involving, among other things, lengthening of reception paths, reconstruction of the main roads, as well as a number of artificial structures.
At the same time, the completion of the modernization of highways was initially planned for the 2018 year, but this summer its term was postponed to 2019 year - the project modernization schedules were thus synchronized with the shippers' plans.
As for the financial side of the project, it is the following picture. Its total value is 562 billion rubles, of which the allocation of 302 billion rubles is provided by RZhD, 150 billion rubles are borrowed funds from the National Welfare Fund (50 billion rubles a year in return for the transfer of its preferred shares to him by RZhD), 110 billion rubles are provided from Of the federal budget. It should be noted here that even at the very beginning of its implementation, the project was subject to technical and price audit of independent audit companies. As a result, the project was optimized for 8,5 billion rubles, which, in accordance with the decision of the Russian Railways and the Government of the Russian Federation, were redistributed - allocated to other projects to increase the capacity of BAM and Transsib.
It is announced that as a result of the modernization of the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway, it will be possible for Russian enterprises to annually annually export to 2020 million tons of cargo to the level of the 66,8 year. Along with this, thanks to modernization, it will also be possible to pass through the main lines to the ports of the Far East mainly freight trains with a weight norm of 2012 million tons and to operate cars with a weight load of 7100 tons per axle. But that is not all. It is planned that the modernization of the highways will have as a consequence the consolidation of the five largest clusters of Transbaikalia, Siberia and the Far East: mining and metallurgy, forestry, energy, processing industry and innovations, and, of course, the key, connecting - transport.
But this is only in the future - when the entire colossal amount of work envisaged by the project will be fully completed. At the present time, BAM and Transsib are still working at the limit of their capabilities. Transportation on them is carried out in conditions of a huge amount of track work with the closure of the tracks. Accordingly, the throughput of the highways depends on the "windows" on each specific day.
The effect will only be on completion
To date, during the 2013-2015 years, the following has been done within the project: a number of works have been carried out for the development and extension of 97 km of station tracks, the construction of 154 km of second tracks, the modernization and reconstruction of about 3 thousand km of tracks, and the laying of 1,5 thousand turnouts Translations. In turn, the implementation of this whole set of works required investments of 148,1 billion rubles.
In response to a question from the EastRussia correspondent about what new opportunities the shipper provides to all that has been done so far in the framework of the modernization of the Baikal-Amur Mainline and Transsib, the RZD responded as follows: "The project is complex and the effect can be achieved only if it is fully completed, to. For each linear object, incl. Railway, if there is a restriction on any of the sections, the effect of the bottle neck is created. "
But, at the same time, the company noted that the throughput of individual stretches, where work is already completed, reaches today 123 pairs of trains per day. While on the adjacent sections, where work is only planned, only 40 pairs can pass a day. As can be seen from these figures, the design work has now increased at times the throughput capacity of individual sections of the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway. How much they are filled with cargo today, it is difficult to say. RZhD, in response to a request to clarify to which requests of the shippers relied on the plans of those works of the project, which to date have already been implemented, declined to comment, referring to trade secrets.
Judging by the statistics, these stretches are still full today, since the growth of freight traffic in the eastern direction continues today. In particular, over the past years, the Transsib has seen a steady growth in the volume of foreign trade traffic: in 2013, they amounted to 104,6 million tons, in 2014 - 108,9 million tons, in 2015 - 113,1 million tons. The indicators of BAM are no less impressive - over the past 10 years its cargo turnover has increased by 51% - up to 75,7 billion tonne-km. In general, the current growth of railway traffic in the direction of the Far East this year is 10% compared to last year.
And in the near future, the distances with increased capacity on the Baikal-Amur Mainline and the Trans-Siberian Railway will become even greater. In the current year, construction and erection works are deployed at 484 facilities. It is planned to put into operation 4 stations and 11 crossings, in general - 73 km of station tracks; Second main routes on the routes of Imbo - Ust-Orochi, Sakukan-Sallikit, Taksimo-Lodja - with a total length of 54,4 km; Bridge across the river Burei, as well as on the sites of Tynda - Urgal and Bamovskaya - Belogorsk.
In addition, 187 turnouts, 4 traction substations, automatic blocking with a total length of 34,7 km, contact network - 22,9 km, and 80,6 km of railway track will be put into operation. At the same time, as it became known in May of this year, work on the modernization of BAM and Transsib is now ahead of schedule. In general, the implementation of the entire complex of works planned for the 2016 year will cost approximately 100 billion rubles. As you can see, the amount of funds invested this year in the project is 2 / 3 from all that was invested in 2013-2015.
Experts: it's difficult to make forecasts
“The main railway project in the Far East today is the modernization and development of the Eastern range,” Gennady Talashkin, President of the Union of Railway Builders, told EastRussia. - Basically, from the point of view of the further economic development of Russia. And I do not share the skepticism that exists today about this project. For the simple reason that the territory of its implementation - that is, the Far East - is now being dealt with in Russia at the highest level - at the level of the President and the Government. "
According to the expert, the current drop in the all-Russian traffic flow, connected with a number of political restrictions, and, on the whole, economic instability, will not be eternal. The current conditions for the decline in cargo transportation are just a unique opportunity to increase the number and size of capital repairs on the Russian railway network and, in particular, on the territory of the Eastern landfill, thus preparing the Russian railway infrastructure for the future growth of freight traffic.
At the same time, experts are not ready to make specific forecasts for the load of highways today. “At the present time it is difficult to draw any conclusions about the prospects of the BAM and Transsib Modernization and Development project, since, despite the fact that its individual cargo flows are not difficult to predict, it is now quite difficult to understand what the cargo flows of the Far Eastern region as a whole will be, since it is not clear how its ports will develop, how China and some other things will behave, - said Alexey Bezborodov, General Director of the Infranews Research Agency, in a conversation with EastRussia. “That is, there are many problems that complicate the forecast of future freight traffic in the Far East as a whole, making the project for the modernization and development of BAM and Transsib promising.”
Trans-Siberian - Trans-Siberian Railway - Moscow-Vladivostok railway with a total length of 9 km, which is the longest railway in the world. The throughput of the highway is 288,2 million tons of cargo per year, the current volume of cargo transportation is about 100 million tons (in 115, the volume of cargo transported by the Trans-Siberian Railway was 2015 million tons), at present more than 113% of foreign trade and transit Russian cargo is transported along it. In the regions where the Trans-Siberian Railway passes, 50% of Russian coal is mined, 65% of oil refining and 20% of timber production are carried out. At the same time, 25% of the industrial potential of Russia is concentrated on the Transsib route. The Far Eastern section of the highway provides an outlet for Russia in the East to North Korea, China, Mongolia and Kazakhstan.
BAM - Baikal-Amur Railway - railway, the basis of the route is Taishet-Sovetskaya Gavan, has an extent of 4287 km. On its length, 10 tunnels have been pierced, including North-Muyskiy - the longest in Russia. The carrying capacity of the highway is 16 million tons per year, the current volume of cargo transportation is 12 million tons. Currently, the highway is operating at the limit of its capacity. The BAM zone has huge reserves of raw materials. Until recently, only separate deposits were exploited in the regions of BAM influence in industrial volumes. The largest of these were the Neryungri and Urgalsky coal, Korshunov and Rudnogorsk iron ore deposits. At present, the development of the largest coal deposits - Elginsky, Denisovsky, Chulmakansky and Apsatsky - is planned and already partially started in the BAM training range. It is also planned to develop the Tarynakh, Taiga, Deusovsky, Krasnoyarovskoye iron ore deposits, the Chineisky polymetallic and Udakan copper deposits, the Seligdar deposit of appatites.