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Where to find a million people for the Far East
By 2021 year in the Far East is planned to create about 80 thousand new jobs. So much labor will appear in the district only as a result of applying exceptional measures that try to systematize in the concept of the demographic policy of the Far Eastern Federal District. Whether there will be an agiotage around this work, whether people will stretch - the correspondent of EastRussia
The draft concept on demographic policy in the Far East for the period up to 2030 is now in active development. Recently, it was discussed by the participants of the first meeting of the interdepartmental Working Group on Population Policy in the Far Eastern Federal District. Proposals from experts, representatives of the scientific community and the public will be considered at a round table in the framework of the Eastern Economic Forum. Active network in the collection of proposals will take the network social platform "Eastern Vector", which provides support for socially significant projects in the Far Eastern regions. Demographic conference in Khabarovsk will be another platform for discussion of public initiatives, which will be held at the end of September this year. "We have to submit a document for discussion to these two control points and to accept it until the end of the year 2016," declared the Deputy Minister of the Russian Federation for the Development of the Far East Sergey Kachaev.
Let's remind that the outstripping socio-economic development of the Far East, for which the state is doing everything possible and impossible, inevitably rests on the issue of cadres. Therefore, not so long ago, Minskostokrazvitiya was entrusted to lead the development and implementation of the Concept of the demographic policy of the Far East for the period up to 2030, as well as the plan of measures for its implementation at 2016-2020. The measures proposed in the concept should be aimed primarily at stabilizing the population and creating conditions for the natural and migratory growth in the number of residents of the Far Eastern Federal District. Together with Minvostokrazvitiya, the Concept is developed by 18 federal ministries and departments, as well as executive authorities of the Far Eastern regions. Expert support is provided by the interagency Working Group on Demographic Development of the Far East. It is headed by Sergey Kachaev, and his deputy is the general director of the ANO "Institute for Scientific and Public Expertise" Sergei Rybalchenko.
To provide methodological support for demographic policy in the Far East in the regions and at the municipal level, the concept envisages the development of model (model) programs for the demographic development of each Far Eastern entity, taking into account its specificity (share of the rural population, established family model, customs and traditions) and agreed with the measures implemented federal level, including various federal programs. In addition, the concept provides for the development of other model regulatory legal acts in the field of demographic and family policies, as well as standards for managing demographic processes at the regional and municipal levels.
Pilot programs of advanced demographic development are planned to be implemented in several regions of the Far East. Most likely, in the Khabarovsk Territory, the Sakhalin Region and one of the northern subjects. Such programs will include measures to optimize the health care system, to protect the reproductive health of the population, to improve the quality of life of families with children. “These programs will be financed at the expense of state and federal targeted programs, regional and municipal budgets, employers' funds,” the Ministry of Eastern and Eastern Development said.
Lock and draw
The strategic demographic goal of the Far East until the year 2030 is to stabilize the number of 6,2-6,3 million people by 2020 year and to ensure the conditions for its further growth to 8 million people by 2030, of course, based on the sustainable social and economic development of the regions. The development of a demographic development program that is separate for the Far East seems all the more reasonable, since the scale of the needs of the Far Eastern productions in the workforce is really impressive: by 2021, a total of 80 thousand new jobs are planned for creation in the Far Eastern Federal District.
"New enterprises need workers in various specialties. We must consolidate the available labor resources in the Far East and attract qualified personnel, "says Sergey Kachaev, the main goals of the demographic development of the Far Eastern Federal District.
It goes without saying that such a quantity of new labor in the Far East will appear only as a result of the application of exceptional measures. And not scattered, but lined up in a single key and linked to each other, as well as with measures that are already being implemented in the Far Eastern regions. “When developing the concept, we take into account the fact that at present there are a number of questions on systematization of already existing demographic measures in the Far East, as well as the targeting of a number of them specifically not demographic development. At the same time, the development of the concept of the demographic development of the Far East is also based on the fact that, as practice shows, demographic measures work most effectively in the case when they are provided in one package. For example, when not one measure of support is provided to a mother or family, but a whole package of them, ”noted the Russian Minister for the Development of the Far East. Alexander Galushka.
Outflow slowed down
It should be noted that the development of the concept is taking place against the background of the following trends in the demographic development of the Far East. "At the present time, it has not yet been possible to reverse that trend, when the wave of visitors to the Far East is much lower than the flow of people leaving, and does not cover the outflow of the population. In 2015, the population of the Far East decreased by 6,6 thousand people. Of course, this can be interpreted with a strong desire as an achievement - the migration outflow from the region over the previous five-year plan was about 23 thousand people per year. But it's still difficult to talk about "order", "the director of the Institute for Economic Research of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Academician, told in an interview to Ogonek magazine Pavel Minakir.
According to him, in the Far East in the past five years there has been a steady decline in the outflow of the population. The academician explains it simply - the main wave of those who want to leave has been done for a long time. Left the district mainly two groups of the population. These are young people up to 35 years, who were looking for higher earnings in the western regions of Russia, as well as older people who after retirement left after the children "to the mainland". Their relocation was also associated with the sale and purchase of real estate. But now that the markets have risen, it has become difficult for those who want to leave to sell their homes in the Far East to buy an apartment in Central Russia. Both labor markets and the prospects for new work have become blurred. All this influenced the dynamics of the outflow.
And who comes to the Far East today? According to Pavel Minakir, the basis of this flow is "shift workers". People go on a set of enterprises, often on new projects. If employees go for a long time, then families come with them. The distribution of the inflow along the edges and regions varies greatly. Most go to the areas of oil, gas and fish processing enterprises. Agricultural migration is very small. As for the southern regions, Chinese people engaged in agriculture travel through the border. But they come only for the season - they do not always live and do not take statistics into account.
“At present, we have to speak not about seven million people in the Far East, but only about a little more than six. Moreover, even if people today cease to leave this macro-region, its demographic situation will still remain bad - a bad indicator will be determined by subtracting from the small birth rate all the increasing mortality, as the population in the Far East today is aging more and more ”, the director of the regional programs of the Independent Institute for Social Policy Natalia Zubarevich.
In this vein, the goal to secure the remaining population in the Far East does not look easily achievable. “The leadership of the region is taking some political measures to reduce the outflow of the population (hectare of land, the Torah, the Free Port), believing that this will really reduce the outflow. In fact, this may make adjustments to the motives of potential migrants from the region. Perhaps in the future there will be motives for potential migrants to the region. But all this takes time, not a year or two, but much more. And most importantly, it is necessary to improve the living conditions of people. So far, the migration outflow remains, ”explained Pavel Minakir.
In addition, according to Zubarevich, “the concept is a concept, but the fact is that there are no such tools for its implementation in Russia today”. “The federal budget today spends money on measures to support families with children, the regions also have all the funds distributed, and the Ministry of Eastern Development has a small fund, the funds of which are not intended for the development of demography. But the main problem is not even in money - to implement the concept, much more powerful tools are needed. Because, even in the same majority of Western European countries, despite not having all the necessary funds, the population continues to decline steadily, ”the expert notes.
On what to concentrate?
If you consolidate the population, it seems, it’s not necessary anymore - its number has already reached its limit, then it means that you need to think about growth - first of all, a migration one (natural growth will yield results only in an overly distant future). “Among the measures proposed for inclusion in the concept, it is planned to introduce additional measures to support young and large families, including those moving to permanent residence, it is also proposed to introduce in the macroregion a raising factor for maternity capital, to introduce a program to improve housing conditions for families with children the birth of children, bring the health care system closer to the workplace and place of residence, improve the organization of the emergency medical service, including developing ation, ”the EastRussia correspondent was informed in the Ministry of the East.
A special place in the concept will be taken by measures and projects in the field of youth policy, also a special role is given to socio-psychological aspects (birth rate stimulation, support for large families, special programs for women to help them return to work quickly after birth, etc.).
"We need to concentrate on supporting young families and families with children, especially those with many children. At each stage of the life cycle, the family has new needs, to help solve which the state, local authorities, and the employer should. The most effective measures are not associated with benefits, but with affordable services - nurseries, kindergartens, the opportunity to give the child a quality education, access to health care, children and family recreation, the possibility of solving housing problems with the appearance of a new child in the family, "- Sergey Rybalchenko.
"The annual need for housing in the Far East is 10 million square meters, and only three million are under construction," the Director-General of the Agency for the Development of Human Capital in the Far East notes Valentin Timakov. "But effective mechanisms for solving the housing problem in the Far East already exist. For example - free provision of land to large families for the construction of housing in Primorye and Yakutia. There are also effective proposals being worked out - including: the creation of housing-funded cooperatives with the provision of guarantees from the state and the development of a new mortgage product specifically for the Far Eastern regions. "
Some experts, in turn, are sure that the demographic development of the Far East will be helped only by cardinal measures. And that is insignificant. "The maximum that is possible as a result of the measures being taken now is to slow down slightly the outflow of the population now taking place in the Far East. But there is no question of any achievement of eight million people in the Far East. Unless after full opening of the Far Eastern borders thanks to which unlimited penetration into the territory of Russia of gastarbeiters from the countries of North-East Asia is possible. It is impossible to expect to achieve this goal at the expense of the population living in Russia. Therefore, since the option of opening borders is impossible, there is nothing left to do but live with the understanding that in the Far East no population growth will occur, and learn how to manage its existing size, "Zubarevich said.
She notes that the demographic picture in the Far East will be heterogeneous - the population will decline most actively in its north, to a lesser extent in the south. “The Far Eastern population will be more and more concentrated in large cities, and medium and small cities of this macroregion and villages will rapidly lose it. If not migrant workers from the Asia-Pacific region, then an increase in the population in the Far East is possible only when life in its conditions is not so expensive, and its infrastructure should be developed, ”added Natalya Zubarevich.
Demographic development is not only complex, but also delicate. In many ways, it depends on the mentality of the population. And there is no separate concept - the separation of the development of the demographics of a particular territory from similar processes in other territories - will not help. But there are still some advantages in the concept of the demographic development of the Far East that is currently being developed. The main thing is that it will systematize the existing measures of state support. In addition, for each Far Eastern region separately, and for the entire macroregion as a whole, it will clearly spell out demographic perspectives.
"Before creating and giving a clear form to concrete projects for inclusion in the concept, it is necessary to study in detail all the existing legal and regulatory framework, programs and the effectiveness of their implementation, as well as demographic development plans for the Far East - in order to avoid contradiction with them. In addition, one should have a full understanding of state priorities in modern economic policy, which provides for the establishment of a TOP network in the Far East. Themselves, the concept programs must be incorporated into existing and developed regional and municipal programs, as well as the existing legal and regulatory framework. In essence, they should be an addition to this framework of this or the Far Eastern region, and not only take into account their historical past and natural conditions. And even more so - to be developed on the basis of what is lacking in local programs and existing NAPs, "Deputy Director of the Institute for Regional Studies and Urban Planning of the National Research University" Higher School of Economics "told EastRussia Yevgeny Plisetsky.
The main conditions for the successful implementation of the concept of demographic development in the Far East, in his opinion, are the same as for the implementation of any state programs. The first is the availability of all the means necessary for its implementation and a permanent allocation, without any delay. The second is effective monitoring and monitoring of their implementation. For some of the measures - the shortest possible term for the creation of fixed assets, provided for them, and for some - the maximum degree of benefits. "It seems that in addition to the concept of the demographic development of the Far East, it is also possible to develop a separate concept for its migration development," said Yevgeny Plisetskiy.