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The rate did not play: preferential mortgage raised housing prices in the Far Eastern Federal District
Price per sq. meter in several regions of the Far East exceeded 100 thousand rubles
“Far Eastern mortgage” was introduced to enable residents of the Far Eastern Federal District to buy housing at an affordable price and to keep the population in the macroregion, but with the start of the program, a paradoxical situation arose - sq. meters began to rise in price. Following the new buildings that are participating in the program of preferential lending, the "secondary" has tightened. Why the “square” is becoming more expensive and whether prices will continue to rise further, EastRussia found out.
In three to four months, housing prices in the Far East may jump due to the “Far Eastern mortgage”. This was announced in the federal Ministry of Construction. However, the price tag has already led to an increase in property prices in the Far Eastern Federal District by 10-15%. The real price increase after issuing a mortgage at 2% was confirmed by Deputy Prime Minister and Presidential Envoy to the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev during a visit to Vladivostok.
Real estate prices in the primary market literally in a month and a half (the time when the program really started working) jumped in all Far Eastern regions. So, in Transbaikalia back in December 2019, apt. a meter in a new building cost 62-64 thousand rubles, now it is up to 70 thousand. In Primorye, where the price of a “square” in the primary market was already one of the highest in the country, now it goes over 100 thousand. Now the apartment is “at the stage pit ”costs the same as before - when putting the house into operation. More than 100 thousand per "meter" will have to be paid in the Amur Region and in the Khabarovsk Territory.
There is a situation where a mortgage at 2% may become less profitable than previously taken, but at a higher percentage. At the same time, the “secondary housing” is pulling up for new buildings - the market dictates its own rules. According to Maxim Omelyanchuk, director of development of the Krom real estate agency, such trends could be foreseen.
“The goal of state programs like the“ Far Eastern mortgage ”or maternal capital, which can also be used to join the mortgage, is obvious: to stimulate the construction industry, the real estate market and keep people in a certain region. After all, it is clear that at the current income level for many people this is the only chance to buy at least some kind of housing, ”says Maxim Omelyanchuk. - But in fact, with a sharp decrease in interest rates, prices per square meter. meter always begin to grow, this is a pattern. From year to year we observe the same story: rates have fallen slightly - albeit by 1% - and people ran to banks for a mortgage. But housing prices at the same time increased so that all the benefits were "eaten up". It would be more profitable for the borrower to take a mortgage at higher interest rates, and then refinance the loan.
But, as Maxim Omelyanchuk notes, a sharp decrease in mortgage rates leads to a significant increase in prices not in all regions. Where there is a lot of housing being built, supply and demand are balanced, but in territories where there are few efficient developers, it is worth waiting for the “square” price to rise.
“In general, I don’t really understand how in such a situation it will be possible to keep people in the Far East. Since prices for the secondary have grown due to changes in the primary market, it is more profitable for the Far East, who already have apartments, to sell them quickly and leave, for example, to St. Petersburg - there, housing prices are comparable. On the whole, lowering mortgage rates instead of developing infrastructure in the region and striving to make people enjoy living there is a one-sided approach to solving the problem, ”adds Omelyanchuk.
INTEREST NOT GUILTY?
According to the doctor of economic sciences, professor of NEFU Tuyara Gavrilieva, the current rise in property prices is due not only to a sharp decrease in the mortgage rate. In this case, several factors played a role.
“Firstly, this is the so-called deferred demand. People knew that the program of preferential mortgages would start in a few months (Vladimir Putin made a corresponding statement in early September. - Ed.), So somewhere developers intentionally kept sales, and somewhere investors-resellers who took apartments in new buildings at a low price and now selling them is much more expensive. But, in addition, the introduction of escrow accounts in recent months also affected: experts warned in advance that this could increase the cost of the “square” by 10-12%. The increased demand for preferential mortgages, of course, also did its job, but I think that within about half a year the market will level out, ”Tuyara Gavrilyeva explained.
Whatever the rise in prices was caused, it is not easier for borrowers. Especially considering who the program is for: young families. However, it is precisely the restrictions in the provision of preferential mortgages, according to the Director General of CreditGrad company Svetlana Kazarinova, that will not allow housing prices to grow indefinitely.
“It’s too early to draw panic conclusions. Of course, when the average mortgage rate in the country is 9-10%, and then 2%, this stimulates demand from borrowers and provokes builders to increase prices. But the growth in value will not be infinite, since the circle of people who can use this program is extremely limited. Restrictions are provided by the age limit and the inability to enter the program if a person has already used other state housing benefits, it is not so easy to apply in this case the capital to enter the mortgage (based on the requirements for the down payment and the total amount of the loan). In addition, this program can be used only once in a lifetime and only for purchase in the primary market - it does not apply to the secondary. And the part of the population to which the program is addressed is hardly able to create a rush of demand. Therefore, speculators will not be able to profit from this story indefinitely, ”says Svetlana Kazarinova.
She explains that real estate prices are rising for various reasons: changes in the Central Bank's key rate, rising tariffs, the difficulty of attracting credit for developers, etc. That is, in this case, there is not one, but several market mechanisms.
ATTRACT OR HOLD?
Can a preferential mortgage keep people in the Far East? According to Svetlana Kazarinova, she can, but only those who took her and only for a while.
“But in general, those who are“ placed ”in the indicated conditions of the preferential program should use it and take a mortgage until they give it,” says Svetlana Kazarinova. “In addition, price increases will inevitably slow in a few months.”
But to attract people to the Far East due to preferential mortgages is unlikely to succeed - the rate does not attract residents of other regions, but the prices per square meter. meters scare away.
“I don’t know who will be able to lure to the Far East in this situation. What are 100-110 thousand per meter ?! In our millionth city, the price per square in houses under construction is half that. At the same time, everything is fine both with work and with salaries, and, in general, in the city we have everything to get an education and relax. Is there a reason to go somewhere and pay for an apartment there at an exorbitant price? ”, Resident of Krasnoyarsk Nikolai Novopashin is indignant.
According to the deputy head of the Ministry of Construction of Russia Nikita Stasishin, because of the issuance of a mortgage at 2% in the Far Eastern Federal District, the proposal does not keep pace with demand. To solve the problem, he proposes to multiply the supply of housing and remove barriers to obtaining building permits. Already, developers are declaring that they lack plots that will be attractive to future buyers. And where there is land, construction companies are in short supply. In the Magadan region, in Kamchatka and Chukotka, there is no one to build preferential housing, it is necessary to create conditions for them and provide assistance.