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Will the image of the Far East strengthen the ties with the Americans
The Far East can become a zone for establishing economic relations with the United States, concluded in the expert-analytical center of the FEFU. EastRussia understood whether it is possible to transform Washington's policy into the APR through the Russian Far East.
Discussion of US policy in the Asia-Pacific region took place last Friday in the FENU expert-analytical center. According to experts, from the 1990-ies the influence of the American special services on the Far East has not weakened. Intelligence agents have traditionally used the territory of the region to conduct intelligence activities, often not related to Russia, mainly in relation to China and South Korea, says FSB reserve lieutenant colonel Alexander Gribov.
"The US intelligence community uses its full potential in the interests of the ruling elites of its country, and above all the so-called American" war party ", to which it is oriented," notes Alexander Gribov. "It is difficult to identify where the intelligence community, and where the hand of this party. I do not think that all actions will be aggressive because the US has always been different in its desire to impose its hegemony on the world, but the US intelligence apparatus is very cumbersome and difficult to control . Amb Moreover, style of US intelligence affairs is becoming outdated: an aggressive approach was relevant in a bipolar world, when there were only two powerful states - the USSR and the US Now the world is multipolar. ".
Although the US does not see Russia as a significant player in the APR market (in the US government documents, Russia is "the threat of 1 in Europe"), but it is making significant efforts to weaken China. The Celestial Empire has recently strengthened its position in the arena of East Asian countries and is striving to become a "hegemon", which America does not like at all. Experts are sure that Russia should in no case support the US policy of weakening China, but, on the contrary, continue to establish economic and political relations with the Middle Kingdom. Recently, the platform for such a policy is just the Far East.
"For the most part, in the weakening of China's geopolitical influence, the United States intends to use India, although I doubt very much that India will do it," says Artem Lukin, deputy director of the Eastern Institute-School of Regional and International Studies, FEFU. Japan and Australia, while George Bush said that China is a strategic competitor of the US in the APR, calling for a "strike" over China, but this course weakened 11 September 2001, when the United States realized that the main threat was the Islamist cue terrorism. "
The expert reminds that by the time of 2010 about the "blow to China" they remembered again, but in 2012 Putin returned to the presidency in Russia, "Ukraine and the Crimea" began - and the US focused its main attention there. "Now we remember again about China: it is listed as a threat to the No.NNUMX national security of the United States, and Russia is only on the second place in this list." Turning Russia to the east in America is not taken seriously yet - Russia is still considered a European state. , Trump himself sees it as a purely economic threat, and in this he and his supporters are very different from representatives of other elites of the US who see in China a serious geopolitical threat to the world hegemony of America.Thus, we observe a split in the common Islands in the US, and much of the American policy in the APR depends on what part of the elite win - Trump, or "party hegemonists", referred to above yet we see that Trump loses, "-. said Artyom Lukin.
DO NOT TRY TO ASIAN DISASSEMBLY
If China continues its expansion into the APR, the United States will have to reconsider its policy towards Russia, experts believe. It is possible that the United States will even try to find an ally in the face of Russia to contain China.
According to the leading expert of the FEFU expert-analytical center Vitaly Savenkov, the Russian Far East in the medium term may become a neutral platform for the development of economic relations between the APR countries, Russia and the United States.
"With the participation of the United States, we can get a flow of tourists, and trade, and direct air transportation, and anything," said Vitaly Savenkov. "And we will become a true international outpost from the ATP branch, we need to establish contacts on the American coast, and the functionaries of the Far East The East should be interested in relations with America, and not roll down to the point that "you smoke American cigarettes - the enemy." It is necessary to remove the internal tension. "
TO INTEREST AN AMERICAN ELITE
According to Artem Lukin, the expansion of the simplified visa regime operating in the free port of Vladivostok to American citizens would be an excellent move in this direction, but Dmitry Shelest, deputy director of the FEFU expert-analytical center, believes that the time for such a step has not yet come: between Russia and the United States are still too tense political relations, and the US Department of State has recently become much fewer people ready for a dialogue with Russia.
"However," objected Artem Lukin, "we, for example, can go without a visa to Guam - the territory of the United States, but we can not come to the European Union on such terms to any territory, I'm not saying that to extend the influence of a simplified visa the Americans need tomorrow or the day after tomorrow, but at the appropriate time such an action would be a step towards establishing at least economic relations. "The Far East could become an exemplary demonstration site of relations between Russia and the United States, but so far neither Russia nor the United States. "
However, even if the Americans are allowed to simplify their entry into Russia through the Far East, they will not go there en masse - they are well at home, experts say.
"Americans do not like to travel further than their own country," notes Vitaly Savenkov, "Therefore, in this country, as in any other, domestic tourism is developed." But the interest in the Far East as a center for establishing economic relations between countries can be demonstrated by the US business elite ".