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Will the yuan compete with the dollar?
In June of this year, at the 6 summit of the heads of the BRICS states in the Brazilian city of Fortaleza, the creation of the BRICS Bank
Multilateral international cooperation of the BRICS countries
In 2008, after the financial crisis broke out, the BRICS countries consistently created cooperative mechanisms based on trade, economic and financial instruments. At the summit in South Africa's Durban, the leaders of the five countries agreed on the creation of a new development bank, and this year, after a comprehensive assessment, the BRNIX Development Bank was announced at the 6 BRICS Summit.
In the modern world, where the dollar is the leading currency, no country has levers of influence on US monetary policy, on which fluctuation in inflation largely depends. Dollar standard also causes inflationary processes in countries with a positive balance of trade, up to the situation when the Central Bank of the country is forced to abandon the rigid binding of the national currency.
To combat these problems, Ronald MacKinnon proposed a project to improve the dollar standard, and Walter Mondale - the way to create a single currency, following the example of the EU. Unfortunately, the BRICS countries today do not have the conditions for creating a single currency, but they need to strengthen financial cooperation. Firstly, a group of five states should develop a joint position on financial issues and increase its presence in international financial organizations such as the IMF and the World Bank. Secondly, the BRICS countries will have to develop cooperation in high-tech and other industries, expanding the use of national currencies in mutual settlements to reduce dependence on the dollar, as well as diversify the global foreign exchange market.
Replenishment of the investment deficit in the infrastructure of the BRICS countries.
The agreement signed at this summit provides for the purpose of creating a BRICS development bank "to provide funds to the BRICS countries and other developing economies to create infrastructure and ensure stable economic growth." Today, the BRICS countries are experiencing a lack of funds for investment in infrastructure, and the existing financing channels do not allow meeting the demand for this type of investment in full. Thus, Brazil, South Africa, India have a current account deficit of $ 52.4 billion, $ 23.3 billion, and $ 88.1 billion, respectively. This indicates that these countries lack domestic funds to meet the demand for infrastructure investment. China and Russia, on the other hand, have current account surpluses of $ 193 billion and $ 72 billion, respectively, which indicates the ability of these countries to invest large amounts of funds in infrastructure. Nevertheless, despite the availability of large amounts of funds, investment instruments in both Russia and China are extremely undeveloped, which reduces the efficiency of investments. Thus, even China and Russia lack funds to invest in infrastructure.
Solving the problem of profitability of foreign exchange reserves
Since the 90-ies of the twentieth century, the export orientation of the BRICS countries has led to an increase in their foreign exchange reserves. As of 2012 year, the total amount of foreign exchange reserves of the BRICS countries was estimated at almost 4.5 trillion dollars, which was 40.6 world currency reserves. However, if we consider the stability of sources of currency, only China has those, and the sources of foreign exchange earnings to other countries are characterized by an unstable nature and a high level of volatility. Despite the large volume and rapid growth of foreign exchange reserves, the BRICS countries lack the tools for their effective investment, which is reflected in their low profitability. This is mainly due to the use of low-risk and low-yield bonds of the United States and other developed countries, rather than shares or bonds of companies and various organizations. American 10-tiennye bonds had an average yield of 3-6%, but after the crisis, which arose due to "bad loans", the implementation of a quantitative easing policy led to a drop in bond yields to 2%, which in turn caused a drop in stock indices and Decrease in profitability of direct investments.
The creation of a BRICS development bank will, firstly, slow down inflation in the BRICS countries by slowing down the growth of the monetary base; secondly, bank lending or profits from investments in the real economy will be able to increase the yield of government securities, as well as stimulate domestic demand for investments in infrastructure; thirdly, the creation of the aforementioned bank will give impetus to the use of national currencies in settlements between the BRICS countries, turn them into convertible currencies, and also help to reduce dependence on the dollar.