Irkutsk
Ulan-Ude

Blagoveshchensk
Chita
Yakutsk

Birobidzhan
Vladivostok
Khabarovsk

Magadan
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Anadyr
Petropavlovsk-
Kamchatsky
Moscow

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With the ruble and demand

The Far East opened an exporter

With the ruble and demand

Uneven statistics

According to customs statistics recently released by the Federal Customs Service, the total trade in the Far East fell from $ 40 billion to $ 39 billion, moreover, due to a drop in imports. Exports in monetary terms grew slightly - by 1,6% and amounted to about $ 28,5 billion. At the same time, imports fell by 12,8% - to $ 10,5 billion. It should be noted that the situation differs significantly across the regions. So, in the Amur region, Khabarovsk and Kamchatka regions, both exports and imports decreased. Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, Magadan and Jewish Autonomous Regions, Primorsky Krai and the Republic (Sakha) Yakutia increased exports and reduced imports. Finally, the Sakhalin Oblast reduced exports and increased imports (see Table).

It is also worth noting that 70,3% of Far Eastern exports were mineral raw materials, and their export increased by 2,9%, amounting to $ 20 billion.The export of food (8,1% in specific weight) decreased by 4,5%, amounting to $ 2,3 , 7,7 billion Seafood - 2,2% in specific weight and $ 5,4 billion of export earnings (-51,6%). More than half of imports, 5,4% or $ 22,3 billion, are machinery and equipment, their imports fell by 11,3%. Metal structures - 1,2% or $ 18,5 billion in import costs with an increase of 3,4%. Food imports increased by 10,9% (1,15% in the share of imports), amounting to $ 3,4 billion. The Far East imported 9,3% more chemical raw materials (977% or $ 23,1 million in specific weight). At the same time, the import of textiles and footwear decreased by 6,8% (712% or $ XNUMX million in the share of imports).

General results of foreign trade of the DFO regions, in $

Region

2013 year

2014 year

Growth in exports by 2013 year

Increase in imports by 2013 year

export

import

export

import

Far East as a whole

28 billion

12 billion

28,5 billion

10,5 billion

1,60%

-12,80%

Amur Region

442,5 млн

466,6 млн

367,75 млн

398,5 млн

-16,90%

-14,60%

Jewish Autonomous Region

17,9 млн

84,2 млн

23,5 млн

70,4 млн

31,90%

-16,40%

Kamchatka

617,7 млн

92,9 млн

521,8 млн

86,2 млн

-15,50%

-7,20%

Magadan region

302,65 млн

457,97 млн

316 млн

112,5 млн

4,40%

-75,40%

Primorsky Krai

3,3 billion

8,47 млн

3,96 billion

7,5 billion

18,90%

-11,10%

The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)

4,7 billion

173,85 млн

5 billion

68,86 млн

6,60%

-60,40%

Sakhalin Region

17 billion

1,2 billion

16,7 billion

1,3 billion

-1,80%

8,80%

Khabarovsk Krai

1,5 billion

919,85 млн

1,4 billion

793,3 млн

-4,60%

-13,80%

Chukotka

89,97 млн

171,25 млн

142,9 млн

126,5 млн

58,90%

-26,10%

China: both the swine and the reaper

The main import partner of the Far East is traditionally China (19% or $ 5,4 billion in exports and 45% or $ 4,7 billion in imports for the year), and it significantly reduced its share in the Far Eastern market - by 0,5% in export and by 16,1 % in the import component. This country occupies 70,2% ($ 699 million) in Far Eastern imports of electronics and electrical equipment, 30,9% ($ 628 million) in imports of machinery and equipment, 68,9% ($ 311 million) in imports of plastics, from 91% to 99% (about $ 460 million in total) in the import of various categories of clothing and footwear, on vegetables 98,7% ($ 181,8 million), fruits - 48,6% ($ 88,9 million). The import of these goods, except for plastics and vegetables, was slightly reduced. The last two categories increased respectively by 43% and 13,4% in monetary terms.

Electronics, machinery and equipment also lead in the total share of goods exported from this country to the Far East - 14,8% and 13,3%, respectively. Plastics make up 6,6% of export, vegetables - 3,9%, fruit - 1,9%. We add that, although China takes from 50% of all deliveries of meat and meat products to the Far East, the cost of this import last year amounted to $ 0,75 thousand, and decreased to 2013 by 98% (Rospotrebnadzor allowed only at the end of last year. - comment of the author).

The main Russian commodity consumed by the PRC is mineral fuel, oil and petroleum products (this category also includes coal). China consumes, however, only 16,9% of oil exported through the Far East in the amount of $ 3,285 billion. However, for China itself, this product takes 60,6% in Russian imports. About 41,5% ($ 911,6 million) of Far Eastern seafood exports also goes to the PRC and this category of goods makes up 16,8% in the total import of goods from the Far East. Also 77,6% forest from the Far East goes to China. However, this is only 14,7% of the total export of timber products or $ 794 million. Despite the fact that oil exports grew by 1% in physical terms, revenue growth was only 1,8%. Similarly, the increase in natural wood export volumes by 18,5% gave only 12,8% revenue growth. Physical volumes of seafood exports fell by 10,9%, cash - by 7,6%.

South Korea: machines for petrodollars

Exports to the Republic of Korea amounted to 32% or $ 9,1 billion from Far Eastern exports and increased by the end of the year by 8,1%. At the same time, imports from this country (its share was 10,6%) decreased by 23,6% - to $ 1,1 billion. The main item of South Korean imports are automobiles - 34,6% in specific weight or $ 385,2 million, which represents 21,8% of the total import cars to the Far East. And over the past year, this item of imports has decreased by 36% in monetary terms. Import of machinery equipment and spare parts - 18,7% or $ 208,1 million, and the total 10,3% of the total import of these goods into the macro-region. In this category, we also see a decrease in 26,3% in monetary terms. Plastics and products from them - 8,4% or $ 93,9 million, this is 20,8% of plastics imports to the Far East. Imports decreased slightly - by 6,3%.

The main imports to South Korea, as well as to the PRC, are fuel, oil and petroleum products - 81,3%, which is equivalent to export revenues of $ 7,4 billion. For the Far East, Korea is one of the main consumers, occupying 38,1% of the total supply. It is worth noting that the price of hydrocarbons is growing at a faster pace compared to the growth in physical supplies - 9,7% versus 4%. Imports of seafood amounted to $ 1 billion or 11,5%, while Korea consumes 47,5% of all Far Eastern supplies of this raw material. Here, volumes fell by 24,4%, and the price just by 6,2%.

Japan: hydrocarbon diet

At 7,3%, exports to Japan decreased (by the end of the year it amounted to 29,7% of total exports) - to $ 8,47 billion. Imports (16,9% in specific weight) increased by 2,5% to $ 1,8 billion. The main imports of two are cars (60,5 % Or $ 1,1 billion) and machinery and equipment (25,1% or $ 445 million). At the same time, Japan occupies 60,8% in the import of motor vehicles to the Far East and 21,9% - in the import of equipment. Import of cars slightly increased in money terms and in kind (4% and 7,6%, respectively), equipment imports went up by 3,3% and decreased by 9,5% in physical volume.

Fuel, oil and oil products account for an overwhelming share in exports of 93,9% or $ 7,95 billion. Japan consumes 40,9% of Far Eastern hydrocarbons. Under this article, exports fell by 10,1% in kind and 5,8% in monetary terms. The second most important product (with a significant margin) is seafood, 2,5% or $ 210 million; the third is forest, 1,6% or $ 131 million. Seafood exports decreased by 5,3% in physical terms, revenues increased by 4,4%. But the physical volumes of forest export were ahead of revenue growth - 7,9% and 2,1%, respectively.

Other countries: gold, diamonds ...

Of the European countries, Belgium was the largest foreign trade partner - 9,5% ($ 2,7 billion) in the share of exports and 1,3% ($ 137) million in imports. Imports from this country in comparison with 2013 increased three times, exports increased by 5%. The main import item last year was ferrous metal products, $ 114,3 million or 83,3%. However, it is worth noting that this is a "one-time demand", since in 2013 only $ 2,6 million worth of goods were imported under this category. In second place is the import of watercraft worth $ 10,6 million (7,7% in specific volume). it also doubled compared to the previous year. Precious stones and metals remain the main export item to Belgium - $ 2,7 billion, or almost 100%. At the same time, the Belgians bought 62,8% of the total Far Eastern exports of jewelry and raw materials for them. The supply volumes increased by 5,1%, while the price - by 2%.

The share of the United States in Far Eastern imports was 5,9% ($ 622,4 million), in exports of 0,8% ($ 239 million). At the same time, the export of goods to the USA increased by one and a half times compared to the previous year, imports decreased by 12,8%. Basically, the Far East imported machinery and equipment worth $ 213,6 million (34,3% in weight) and ferrous metals worth $ 99,2 million (15,9%). in the first category, demand fell by 10,4% in money terms and by 38,7% in kind. In the second case, it grew by 7,9% and 0,8%, respectively.

It is worth noting that India and Israel are large consumers of precious stones and metals from the Far East. Last year, the Indians purchased these goods by $ 686 million, which amounted to 97,1% in specific weight or 15,9% in total supplies of these products from the Far East. In real terms, exports grew by 1%, in monetary terms fell by 2,5%. For Israel, exports of jewelry and raw materials amounted to 100% or $ 572,4 million in weight, this country consumed 13,3% of all deliveries last year; despite a slight decrease in physical volumes - 0,8%, the revenue of Far Eastern exporters increased by 14,1%.

Expert opinion: “physical volumes of trade will remain”

As a senior researcher at the Economic Research Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, Candidate of Economic Sciences Dmitry Izotov notes, export statistics were affected by a drop in commodity prices for a number of goods, as well as a slowdown in the economies of the leading countries in the region - all this made it difficult for Far Eastern export products.

“We must bear in mind that there is a worldwide decline in prices for resources, for energy, for metals. Gold may have played a little bit of the consequences of the fall in 2012, but on the whole, the downward trend in metals can be seen from 2011. As for oil prices, here we are experiencing the consequences of the “shale revolution” and the rejection of the policy of “quantitative easing” in the United States. "Debt economy" (building up domestic and foreign debt as the main mechanism for stimulating economic growth. - comment of the author) assumes that the dollars must ultimately return to the issuing country. As a result, the value of dollars as one of the main assets increased, and that of oil fell. And in connection with the reduction of costs in the United States, there will be a transfer of orders that were previously placed in Korea, Japan, China, precisely to the United States, closer to the main consumer. Thus, raw material demand in Asian countries is narrowing, ”explains Dmitry Izotov.

As for imports, it is obvious that in Russia there is a decline in consumer and production demand. This is due to the devaluation of the ruble and high interest rates on loans - the latter is the result of the "stabilization policy" of the Central Bank. The more expensive the loan - the less available working capital and less opportunity to purchase the necessary goods.

"The Far East does not produce a whole range of consumer and industrial goods. Therefore, due to the dependence of the macroregion on imports, in any case, in the medium term, further devaluation of the ruble will disperse consumer inflation and stimulate a new price increase, "the economist believes.

Much will depend on whether Russian employers will correlate with the fall of the ruble indexation of salaries. This measure may lead to a surge in imports, but it will be short-lived: "for sure there is a certain balance of" unsatisfied demand. " People are trying to buy something for themselves, but the prices for such goods will be quite different. " At the same time, the physical volumes of imports of consumer goods can hardly be reduced, just some high-price goods will not be consumed in the former volumes, and their replacement will be cheaper. This will affect cars, home appliances, electronics and many other groups that have inexpensive analogues.

The main supplier of such goods for the macroregion is our neighbor China. But it is worth noting that the "golden times" of cross-border trade with the Middle Kingdom were over. The largest flow of Chinese goods is delivered to Russia from the ports of Guangdong province, this production through the Indian Ocean, the Suez Canal, the Mediterranean goes to Holland, the Black Sea or Baltic ports. From there, Chinese imports fall into the western regions of Russia, and part of this flow reaches the Far East. Also goods from China by rail arrive in Russia through Kazakhstan and Transbaikalia. The other, the "little stream", which goes straight to the Far East, is mainly consumer goods, food (fresh fruits and vegetables), investment goods and construction materials. And even Chinese textiles mostly go through the western regions of Russia. "The model, when the border regions of the Far East had more serious advantages in trade with China, remained in the past, as the entrepreneurs of the northeast of China still sold products that were produced not in them, but in the south. Cross-border "shuttle" trade from 2004 year has been greatly reduced. In fact, the commercial rent, which was previously obtained by shuttles from the border provinces, is now appropriated by firms from central Russia, "the economist said.

As for the import of investment goods, it is more difficult to predict. “There is information that China will provide Russia with a loan in yuan, intended for large commodity companies. Such a loan is provided for future energy supplies. In exchange, Russia will acquire investment goods in the PRC. But these funds will most likely be spent on products of the domestic sector of the Chinese economy, ”says Dmitry Izotov. What does this mean in practice? There are two sectors of the Chinese economy, he explains. Domestic is actually Chinese companies, and foreign are global brands that place production in the PRC. But in export articles all of these goods are listed as Chinese. However, if Russia will receive Chinese loans for the purchase of equipment, we can only rely on the products of the domestic sector of China, and not on goods of international class, explains the economist.

The devaluation of the ruble can also have positive sides. Given that foreign technology is becoming too expensive for Russia, it can not be ruled out that its suppliers will decide to place part of the assembly facilities in the European part of the country. "Japanese, Korean and Chinese manufacturers in principle can do this. The main question is - what will be the degree of localization, because if the share of foreign components is still high - the price will be high, "said Dmitry Izotov.

However, it is not worthwhile to count on rapid import substitution, especially in the Far East. For example, in the production of meat, poultry, dairy products, much depends on the tariffs of monopolies. If there is an indexation of tariffs, then the cost of producing the same meat will at best equalize its price with the imported one, or else make it even more expensive than the imported one. And, for example, broiler eggs, breeding cattle, seeds - are almost entirely imported from abroad. Therefore, with the devaluation of the ruble, the value of these goods also increased. As the cost of industrial packaging.

In general, the expert from the Institute of Economic Research of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences notes, trade with Asian countries may decrease in the short term in terms of value volumes denominated in US dollars. But in quantitative terms, and statistics show this, there is no drastic reduction, as there is an inelastic demand: buyers for Russian products will, but its price in dollars will be lower. It is likely that there will be even an increase in the physical volumes of exports for some commodity items in the Far East. In the sphere of imports, a short-term reduction in imports of light industry goods, vehicles, construction materials, consumer goods and long-term use is possible. And the dynamics of this reduction will largely depend on the economic situation in Russia. As for the possible consumer interest of foreign tourists to cheapened (in ruble terms) Russian goods, the Far East by and large has nothing to offer them.

“Due to the weak localization of production in the Far East in particular, and in Russia as a whole, the prices of consumer goods that will be imported into the region will also grow. Probably, the statistics of the growth in purchases made by foreigners in large cities of the Far East is related to the stocks of products from the rest of Russia, as well as high-quality goods from Europe and other developed countries. This stock will run out, and demand too, ”the economist concludes. But tourist and other services will be more accessible for foreigners. However, the tourist "trickle" flows mainly in the major cities of the Far East. This Vladivostok, Blagoveshchensk and, in part, Kamchatka. “Mostly Asian tourists travel to the west of Russia. St. Petersburg, Moscow, the Golden Ring - there are really a lot of them, and probably will be more, ”concludes the expert.

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