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Russia in the short term - where further?
KaraganovMember of the Presidium of the Council on Foreign and Defense Policy of the Russian Federation, political scientist, dean of the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics of the Higher School of Economics
On the side of Russia is the rising "not the West", which is the majority of humanity, and the most dynamic economies. Financial means, alternative technologies, albeit less effective, will not be difficult to find. The world has changed dramatically, increasing the freedom of economic and political action for all countries.
It grows and new economic and transport configuration, based on the integration of land beginning of the Chinese economic Silk Road with the Russian Trans-Siberian and BAM, the Northern Sea Route. Apparently, around SCO, with its probable extension to India, Pakistan, in the long term - Iran, a new grouping with the growing Eurasian security component.
Nobody knows what kind of medium- and long-term damage sanctions can inflict on the Russian economy. At the same time, the economies of a number of European countries are already suffering and because of the reduction in exports, and because of the decline in confidence in business in a situation of stagnant stagnation.
So there are grounds for finding a compromise with the Europeans in the medium term. Although it is impossible not to take into account the above described deep reason for the rejection by European, especially German, elites of the rigid behavior of Russia. In the direction of continuing the confrontation, the Americans interested in it will also crush. And the situation in Ukraine will constantly add fuel to the fire.
And most importantly - formed a clear impression that the economic weakness pedaling Russia, attempts to aggravate it, indicate the absence of a viable and long-term strategy is a key element of Western strategy in the current crisis. If the Russian elite, the leadership and the president are not ready for decisive economic reforms - even in the mobilization option, this strategy can be successful.
Where to go?
The crisis of such depth, which is based on the fundamental interests of its main participants, is unlikely to end in the medium term.
So the success of 2014’s foreign policy will be developed or dispersed in economic policy. Russia is like a boxer with a beautiful head, a reaction, strong hands, but weak legs. If we do not strengthen them, the battle will very likely be lost.