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Promproizvodstvo Far East: there is nothing to rejoice, but there is hope

EastRussia opens a series of publications on the results of the development of the Far East for the first quarter

Industrial production in the Far East in the first quarter of 2017 year stagnated - data published by Rosstat, record growth in January-March at only 0,2%, that is, at the level of error. However, the first quarter is not yet an indicator. Chicks in the fall believe that the same forecasts for the entire 2017 year can be done at least by the end of the half year. In the meantime, you should see how the statistics figures danced in the last two months of winter and the first spring month of 2017.

Promproizvodstvo Far East: there is nothing to rejoice, but there is hope
Monthly fluctuations
A year ago, the dynamics of industrial production in the DFO was more inspiring - for January-March 2016 years plus 5,4%. And if you look at the indicators in the context of the period to the period, you can see that the situation has turned upside down. For example, in January 2016 the index was 2,3%, in January-February - 2,4%, and for the quarter - the same 5,4% (in comparison with the same periods of 2015 year). And so it went on all the first half of the year, to a record 5,8% growth for January-July. Only since August the dynamics began to fade - and by the end of the year the Far Eastern industry showed only + 2,2% (to the result of all 2015 year). But if it were not for the indicators of the first seven months, and a year, you will see, did not end even with such a plus.

What do we see in the context of the periods this year? January-17 to January-16 - 5,2%, in January-February to the first two months of last year - plus 4,7%, and for the first three months - pathetic + 0,2%! Where has the growth gone, seemingly outlined from the beginning of the year? data for January-April, by the way, show plus 1,5%. Hence, not everything was lost.

Among those who did not go into the plus - Kamchatka (the index for the first quarter remains in the negative zone). But the saddest thing is that Khabarovsky Krai (minus 0,6% for January-March) passed one of the regions-leaders of industrial production in the Far East. Primorye for the quarter added 1,5%, but in the first two months the industry there did not grow. Slow down and the Amur region, stable in the black - only Yakutia. One can not help but be glad at the Jewish autonomy (plus 32,4% per quarter), but still the industrial appearance of the Far Eastern Federal District is traditionally defined by diversified and industrialized Khabarovsk Krai and Primorye.

Dynamics in the context of "month to month" is also not impressive. For the entire 2016 year there were only two failures - in August (86,9%) and in October (96,1%). All the remaining months Rosstat recorded growth; It was also in January and in February of this year. But the March-17 by March-16 fell immediately to 2,3%. If you look at the regions, then most of all in March (by March of last year), the growth of industrial production in the Khabarovsk Territory was reduced (94,2%); in Primorsky - grew by 10,7%. But March was a failure in this section for many other regions - Sakhalin, Kolyma, Kamchatka, Chukotka. Hence, obviously, the modest indicators of the whole quarter.

I'm glad that from month to month the industry so far seems to be accelerating. So, if in January-17 by December-16 the index was 87,5%, in February in relation to January was 94,7%, in March to February - already plus 6,3%! In general, for the year in this section, production always "jumps"; The question in the scope of such fluctuations. In any case, the year started clearly not right off the bat.

In comparison with the entire Russian Federation, the situation in the Far East does not look too bad (the index for Russia in January-March is 0,1%). But, for example, in the SFD industry growth was 6,2%, and in the North Caucasus - 7,9%. In the Urals and Siberia - 2% plus. The leaders of industrial production growth in the first quarter were small national republics - Altai (plus 52,5%), Tyva (plus 34,9%) and the already mentioned EAO (32,4%). Next, incidentally, is Dagestan. But in absolute terms, the contribution of these regions to the country's industry, of course, is minimal.

In the case of the Far East, apparently, a reduction in investment. Rosstat has not yet provided data for the first quarter, but for the entire 2016 year, a little more than 985 billion rubles were invested in fixed capital throughout the FEFD, which is almost 3% less than a year earlier. As for the shipment of goods of own production, work performed and services on its own, this indicator in the DFO stably keeps at the average limits of 350 billion rubles per month (there are drops to 270, or growth to 395 billion, as in December 2016 of the year) half of these volumes fall on Sakhalin and Yakutia. These two regions periodically bypass each other in absolute terms. Shipment volumes are only slightly inferior to the SFD. But even if one does not add to them the modest figures of the North Caucasus Federal District (allocated, as we remember, artificially enough), the Far East will still be in last place in the Russian Federation. Colony, what can I say ...

Extraction in the EAO sets records
Traditionally, the industrial production index is made up of indicators of three key blocks: “Mineral extraction”, “Processing industries” and, as it became clear this year, “Provision of electrical energy, gas and steam; air conditioning "(previously used instead the section" Production and distribution of electricity, gas and water ", but last year OKVED codes were changed).

What happens in the extractive industries native to the "colonial" DFO? The growth of 3,3% for the first quarter is less than for the same period last year (6,9%), and all 2016-th (plus 4%)! But they did not fall, and it's already good. Although in neighboring Siberia in this segment - plus 6,5% growth. Production as a whole grew on Sakhalin, in the Magadan and Amur regions, in Yakutia. But all the achievements of these territories will seem simply insignificant against the backdrop of the space breakthrough of the EAO. In January-March, the extraction of minerals in this region grew by ... 939,2%! And this, by the way, is not the limit - in January there was 1243,2% (by January of the previous year)!

At the end of 2016, the JAR also set a record among its neighbors - the index of industrial production in mining was 186%. In the only autonomous region in Russia, the construction of the Kimkano-Sutarsky GOK was completed, with which commodity products began to be shipped to consumers, the Amur-Khinganskaya TRA was established. It is clear that all these breakthroughs are due to the “low base” effect; it is clear that even such fantastic results of one small JAR did not make a special contribution to the overall production dynamics across the entire FEFD.

In general for Russia, production also did not show very good dynamics (plus 1,2%) - stability! In a minus rates of growth in this segment in SKFO, the Central and Northwest districts have left. In the South - a breakthrough in 24,6%, due to outstripping rates of production in Kalmykia and Astrakhan region. Nevertheless, in March, as compared to February, production accelerated in all nine regions of the Far Eastern Federal District without exception. That gives hope for the growth of the segment during the year. Moreover, the colonial approach to the development of the district remains the dominant one; as well as the fact that mining projects are usually implemented by large federal or foreign players. That is, in the production segment, we are basically observing the parallel economy of the Far East in action. "We must, of course, translate the indicators of high industrial growth into the growth of the quality of life, the preservation of social stability, social obligations," Alexander Levantal, Governor of the Jewish Autonomous Region, said in May, commenting on the economic records of his region. To break the head over this major task is not just one Levintal.

Processing is still in the black
The manufacturing industry in the Far East gained momentum in the first quarter, plus 2,8%. In January-March last year, everything was worse (0,6%), and according to the results of 2016, the index of growth in the segment did not reach the positive zone at all - 99,4%. In Russia, there was no growth in this segment in the first quarter (99,2%), but in a number of federal districts in January-March it was more fun. So, 5,4% growth in the Southern Federal District and 8,5% are in the North Caucasus, which also has its own ministry and a “profile” deputy prime minister. But in the neighboring and similar in specificity of the Siberian Federal Okrug - a drop by 1,8%.

I am glad that in the traditionally industrial regions, the segment "manufacturing" in January-March, one way or another, grew: in Primorye, as much as 10,6%. The only exception is Priamurye, in which the index showed depressing dynamics in 83,1%. And this is not the first quarter. "In the main, manufacturing industry has remained with us since the times of the socialist economy, and the new owners failed to reform it even in the period of high state revenues, when the price of oil was high and banks did not spare loans. In capitalism, money is important, but nothing more than the ability to find customers, cut costs and increase labor productivity. It seems that many old enterprises in the Amur Region are dying, "said Andrei Konushok, deputy chairman of the Amur Scientific Center of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in March to the newspaper Amurskaya Pravda.

Strangely enough, the leaders of growth were Chukotka (plus 35,7%), Kolyma (25,3%) and Sakhalin Oblast (22,6%). What is strange, given the specifics of these regions. And it could give some hope that the raw materials complex does not develop in enclaves, but works as a multiplier for various industries. But, most likely, this is not the case, and the growth of the manufacturing industry is the success of the food industry (especially the fishing industry), metalworking, chemical production (in PJSC) and other small and medium local players. Interest in this case is a beautiful, but very conditional indicator. For example, if Look at the Chukotstat data on the volume of shipment, it is easy to see the gap between absolute figures in extraction and processing.

Energy - different figures
The data of the UES System Operator and Rosstat statistics on electricity production in the Far East diverge significantly. Thus, SO UES shows that in three months 2017 of the year in the ECO of the East, and taking into account the isolated power systems, 13,8 billion kW / h was generated (minus 2% by the first quarter of 2016 of the year). At the same time, consumption amounted to 13,3 billion kW / h. According to Rosstat, over the first three months, more than 15,7 billion kW / hours of electricity was produced in the DFO, which is 1,9% less than in the first quarter of last year.

Further more. Of the total volume, a quarter, or about 4 billion kW / h, is the contribution of the Amur Region alone. Clearly, at the expense of large hydropower plants in Bureya and Zee, working, as you know, and for export to China. However, according to InterRAO, for the first quarter in the PRC was supplied only 430 million kW / hours of electricity, and the volumes sank by almost 13% (compared to the first quarter of 2016). So, the energy of Amur hydropower plants is in demand in the country? It seems that it really is - in January-March, energy added in the Amur region, and immediately at 21,4%! In other regions, electricity production in the first quarter decreased, most strongly - by almost 17% - in Primorye (except for isolated Sakhalin, where output is stable in volumes). In general, in Russia, electricity production grew by only 0,4%.

New code "Providing with electric energy, gas and steam; air conditioning "shows the energy sector in the expanded section. But in it Rosstat fixes the negative dynamics - the index 94,3% in January-March. Growth - all in the same Amur region (at 10,7%) and Sakhalin (plus 2,7%). The rest of the region has nothing to boast about.

"Big economy" is growing
It is obvious that those segments of the economy in which it is difficult to overestimate the influence of external factors of influence continue to grow. For example, the carriage of goods. In this section, the Rosstat takes into account only the carriage by road for organizations of all types of economic activity, but without small businesses. And what do we see? Growth, and even some - by 26,1% in the first quarter! This is much higher than in the first quarter of last year (2,4%), and for the whole 2016-th (8,3%).

The leaders again - the Amur region. This region also set record-breaking freight rates following last year’s results (plus 68,3%), and the trend is still steady - fantastic 344,3% for the first quarter. In Amurstat, this is explained simply by the construction of facilities for a gas processing plant in Svobodnensky district. Where there are similar mega-projects and construction projects are also developing, freight traffic is also growing - in Yakutia, the Jewish Autonomous Region and the Khabarovsk Territory, on Sakhalin.

The same applies to the turnover - in the whole DFO in the first quarter, he added almost 13%, whereas last year the growth index of this indicator never went beyond 100%. And again Amur leads in the lead - plus 58,3%! But the Jewish Autonomous Region lost almost 40% in cargo turnover, but this is not surprising - in the first quarter of 2016, the autonomous region broke records (plus 80,5%). Such indicators, of course, for a long time will not work for anyone. “Many of the indicators traditionally used to analyze the current general economic situation in the region are related to external injections, the implementation of projects of federal and regional importance. From here and fluctuations both on years, and on the branches, tied on input of these objects. In 2015, the increase in the volume of work performed by the type of activity “construction” was more than 2014% compared to 150 — it was unrealistic to get the same growth rate! ”- explained to the newspaper "Amurskaya Pravda" the dean of the faculty of international relations of the AmU Lyudmila Ponkratova in March this year.

To see the "second economy" - the one that lives on consumer demand, albeit a small, but local population, other Rosstat indicators will help us.

But about this - in the next publication of the cycle.

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