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Software capabilities and increased obligations

The new version of the State Program for the Development of the Far East sets super-targets for many indicators

Software capabilities and increased obligations
In mid-August, Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev approved the changes made to the state program "Social and Economic Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region." And the first document to be in effect from 15 on April 2014 of the year became history. Two weeks before the Eastern Economic Forum (WEF), the Ministry of Eastern Development has received a tool that outlines priorities and areas of work, sets specific target indicators and sets clear budget guidelines. By the way, the WEF itself is also mentioned in the State Program - as one of the main events in the complex development of the DFO.

As the Minister of the Russian Federation for the Development of the Far East Alexander Galushka noted, “the state program should become an integrated management tool aimed at raising the level of socio-economic development of the Far East. This includes, in particular, attracting domestic and foreign investments, realizing the human resource potential of the macroregion and creating new high-tech jobs, primarily for the Far Eastern people themselves. All this is being done so that in the Far East you want to live and work. ”

"The state program in its new edition takes into account all those new tools for the development of the macroregion that have been legislatively enforced during the last two years. And who have already sung to prove their effectiveness in practice. The fact that these instruments were not taken into account by the State Program in the previous version made it very difficult for the authorities of the Far Eastern subjects to work. But this does not mean that the state will not create new tools and that the state program will not be renewed again, "Deputy Prime Minister and Plenipotentiary of the President in the Far Eastern Federal District Yuri Trutnev told EastRussia. According to him, the most important thing is that the deadline for the implementation of the updated State program is increased to 2025. "Although a number of new enterprises in the Far East have already been created today, many more will take a considerable amount of time to create. The increase in the period of implementation of the State program is also important because during negotiations with certain investors who want to take advantage of state support within the framework of their investment projects in the Far East, if such support is provided, the state assumes budgetary obligations that require their implementation only in the future - For example, in 2018 or 2019-th years. That is, due to the extension of the state program, the state has an opportunity to assume obligations, which nothing will interfere with, "stressed Trutnev.

On the eve of the WEF, the EastRussia columnist carefully studied this document. Already the first figures indicate that the Ministry of Eastern Development can not refuse to be courageous. Judging by the updated version of the state program, the team of Alexander Galushka takes on increased obligations in the accelerated development of the Far East. The main ones are: the creation of 103,3 thousand new jobs (including 16,42 thousand - highly productive) and the growth of the population of the Far East and the Baikal region to 11,2 million by 2025 year. The state program also fixes the allocation of budget allocations for 46,6 billion rubles annually. As a result, the implementation of all activities will cost the state up to 2025 in more than 460 billion rubles.

Five subprograms and three FTPs

The structurally new state program consists of five subprograms and three FTPs. The sub-programs are aimed at creating conditions for the advanced social and economic development of the Far Eastern Federal District, supporting investment projects, increasing the investment attractiveness of the Far East and balanced territorial development. It is noteworthy that the State Program has only two goals, but which! The first is "raising the level of social and economic development of the Far East and the Baikal region," the second is "ensuring the need for labor resources and securing the population in the Far East."

Let's take a closer look at the subroutines - for all of them, except one, the executor is Minvostokrazvitiya. The most important and expensive sub-program prescribes the creation of a network of territories for advanced development (TOP) and the development of free ports. At the same time, there are no plans for replicating the TOR sites: 2025 will be their 21 year (now 13 is already created), with the volume of only private investments exceeding 1,5 trillion rubles (now a little more than 0,5 trillion investments). But it is in the TOPs that the lion's share of planned new jobs will appear (74,8 thousand, including 12,45 thousand - high-productivity ones).

It is difficult to overestimate the decisive role of this subprogramme - it is precisely due to the residents of TOP and SPV in the Far East that the volume of attracted investments should also multiply. And this is the first good goal, which will not be easy to achieve: since 2011, the volume of investments in fixed assets in the DFO has been steadily declining. In essence, this program prescribes the format of the new industrialization of the FEFD, since it is in the TOP that "the complex of productions, including export-oriented and using modern competitive technologies, should appear".

The state says that it will invest primarily in infrastructure. The creation of transport, energy, communal, engineering, social and other infrastructure necessary for the work of the TOR and free ports will total more than 183 billion rubles, of which 6,1 billion will be already this year. Until 2025, under this subprogram, Minskostokrazvitiya is going to spend about 20-22 billion rubles a year. The peak of financing - 22,9 billion rubles - is planned for 2025 year. Apparently, for insurance. By the way, the co-executor of this subprogram, which is clearly not accidental, declared Rosmorrechport. Port areas are the basis of the Free Port of Vladivostok, in addition, the port site is in the TOP of Kamchatka. In addition to investments in infrastructure, the authorities will help residents with labor resources.

Another 14,5 billion rubles before the year 2025 is planned to be invested in measures for balanced territorial development, as well as in the implementation of the Federal Target Program "Social and Economic Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region" (this direction can be called lawmaking). And the subprogram "Enhancing the investment attractiveness of the Far East" - spend only 7 billion rubles. Funds - approximately 600-800 million rubles a year - will go to "create a system aimed at attracting investments to the Far East", "attracting residents of TOP, direct investments", "comprehensive solutions to the development of human capital," "ensuring business growth Investors, including foreign ones, to the implementation of projects in the Far East "and" ensuring positive migration dynamics through additional inflow and consolidation of the population in the Far East. " The key actor of this subprogram should be the Human Capital Development Agency, which will have to provide at least 90% of the jobs created by the workforce.

More than 178 billion rubles have been announced to support investment projects, with about 10 billion already this year. And this is the second most expensive subprogram. Such projects in total for 2025 should get 55, with the accumulated volume of investments in 1,1 trillion rubles (excluding budgetary investments). But in general, the volume of investments utilized in investment projects should exceed 2025 trillion rubles by the year 1,7.

The peak of budgetary generosity in this direction will have to be again for the last year of the implementation of the State program. But in general, this direction will be allocated annually for approximately 20 billion rubles. As a result, due to the formation of competitive on the external and internal markets of production, 25 thousand new jobs (including 3,8 thousand - high-productivity ones) should be created. Interestingly, of the total number of projects for the Development Fund of the Far East, only 10 is fixed (so far, the FRDF has been involved in only two projects), which is very strange given the plans for its capitalization.

Baikal without money

It is interesting that the State Program includes a separate subprogram supporting investment projects in the Baikal region. And its executor is written not Minvostokrazvitiya, and the Ministry of Economic Development. This is the only direction that the Far Eastern department shared with colleagues in the government - completely, even without the status of "co-executor." The fact that this subprogram prescribes the creation in the Baikal region of only 2,63 thousand new jobs (and this is not a joke), and the implementation of all three investment projects, gives a piquant situation. "Formation of competitive production and production complexes in various sectors of the economy", as well as "exceeding the share of investments in fixed assets in the GRP for the Baikal region over the average share in the Russian Federation" should, apparently, happen by itself, as the budget for Implementation of the subprogram is not provided.

And this is despite the fact that the state program states that the development of the Far East “is impossible without successfully solving the tasks of economic and social development of the Baikal region adjacent to it, which provides transportation links and a resource base for the implementation of promising projects oriented to the markets of the Asia-Pacific countries”. In this connection, the FEFD and the Baikal region should be considered as a single macro-region, although “the tools and mechanisms for their development may differ significantly”.

It is not surprising that the portal made a logical conclusion - the Baikal region remained only in the name of the State Program. “We have previously been there superficially, almost like extras in the title. But now everything is clear. What will this mean for the edge? The answer is natural: nothing good. The lack of financing is all, ”the Finance Minister of the Trans-Baikal Territory from January 2013 to July 2016, Andrei Kefer, told the publication.

As for the FTPs included in the State Program, they were inherited by her, you might say. Thus, the FTP "Economic and Social Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region" will end in 2017. This is an "old" program, implemented from 2014 year. Most of it is spent on the development of transport and energy infrastructure, which is necessary "to ensure the accelerated development of the macroregion." It goes to help the subprogramme to support investment projects.

The cost of FTP up to 2017 year inclusive exceeds 161 billion rubles, of which more than 93 billion are federal budget funds. This program has the most mundane indicators - the growth of the length of motor roads (at 763,3 km) and the capacity of the ports (by 2,21 million tons), the reconstruction of 17 airports, the construction of four driveways at the BAM, etc.

Another such "down-to-earth" Federal Target Program prescribes the development of the Kuril Islands. The previous version finished in the last year; But this year it was replaced by a similar program, calculated up to 2025 year. The volume of financing - 68,9 billion rubles, of which 27,8 billion accounted for the federal budget. It is planned that the number of the permanent population of the Kuril Islands will grow to 2025 thousand people by the year 24,3 (from the current 19 thousand), the volume of shipment of fish processing products will amount to 8,1 billion rubles (from 6 billion in the current year), and the volume of investments in fixed assets - 5,9 billion rubles (from 3,4 billion in the current year).

Target indicators

The main indicators according to which the Ministry of Regional Development will assess the success of the work being carried out is the GRP physical volume index, the growth of investments and the number of the permanent population, as well as the receipt of taxes, fees and other mandatory payments to the consolidated budget of the Russian Federation from the Far East and Baikal region.

Most importantly, for all of these indicators, specific figures are indicated - 2012 data is taken for the database. Incidentally, not by the way, successful. Pay attention to the growth of the index of investments - its excess over the level of 2012 year will begin only from 2018 year. Although this year, according to Alexander Galushka, the growth of investments in the Far East should be 10%.

2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
Index of physical volume of GRP,% 103,5 105,6 107,7 109,8 113,1 116,5 121,2 126 132,3 138,9
Index of physical volume of investment in fixed assets,% 90,5 98,8 107,9 109,9 113 114,5 117,4 121,8 128,1 132,2
The number of permanent population, million people (Far East and Baikal region) 10,7 10,7 10,8 10,8 10,9 10,9 11 11 11,1 11,2
Incomes to the budget of the Russian Federation, billion rubles 965,2 1062 1168 1285 1414 1554 1710 1880 2069 2276

Interestingly, in the State Program, all of these indicators are presented in the regional context, including for the three deprived subjects from the Baikal region (except for the Trans-Baikal Territory, it includes the Irkutsk Region and the Republic of Buryatia). For example, the index of the volume of GRP to 2025 in Chukotka should be 150,2%, in Primorye - 147,8%, and in the Jewish Autonomous Region - 147,2%. And the index of the physical volume of investments in fixed capital (in comparable prices, the cumulative total to the level of 2012 of the year) will be a record in 2025 on Sakhalin - 200,6%, in the Magadan region - 160,6%. In this case, in Chukotka, the same indicator will be equal to 65,2%. Given that the objectives of the state program are referred to as “subjects of joint jurisdiction” of the Russian Federation and regions of the Far East, and the achievement of these goals is “ensured by the implementation of state programs of the subjects of the macroregion”, the document, in fact, sets targets for each of the governors. Speaking quite simplistic, the heads of regions are important actors for the implementation of the state program (for example, the amount of co-financing of federal programs depends on them, as well as the speed at which sites are allocated for TOP).

As for the size of the resident population, the announced figure in 11,2 million people, in fact, refers to the very Far-Baikal macro-region. Specifically, no special growth is planned in the FEFD - in 2025, almost 6,5 million people should live here (the remaining 4,7 million are residents of the Baikal region). Now in the Far East - a little over 6,2 million population, the goal of the State Program, obviously, is to consolidate those who remained. This is logical and realizable, as well as a small increase, possible, including through the creation of the very 100 thousand new jobs. By the end of the State Program, the number of Yakutia’s population (which grows) should exceed 1 million, and the Primorsky Territory (which so far suffers most from the DFO - both migration and natural) - for 2 million.

Have to work

It is noteworthy that shortly before the approval of the new version of the State program, the government of the Russian Federation announced the results of the implementation of federal programs in 2015. Minvostokrazvitiya received a low rating - 64,6% (for example, the best regional program - for the development of the NCFD - the same indicator was 89,5%). According to the data provided in the government's summary report, the planned values ​​of the indicators (indicators) of the State Program "Social and Economic Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region" "were largely not achieved". "As the reasons for not achieving a number of indicators, the responsible executors of the" territorial "state programs included in the direction of the List" Balanced Regional Development "indicate the decline in the volume of manufacturing industries, the rise in the cost of imported investment goods, the economic uncertainty of investors, the deterioration of a number of macroeconomic indicators in 2015 (for example, GDP), a deterioration in the growth rate of the Russian economy, and crisis phenomena. "

The same report states that the implementation plan and the detailed schedule for the implementation of the state program were not drawn up at all, and therefore "the evaluation of the implementation of the control events of the corresponding state programs according to the methodology of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia was not carried out." At the same time, the cash execution of federal budget expenditures under the Far Eastern state program was 97%, but the Ministry of Eastern Development as a performer received a grade below average, or 50%. However, this is the best indicator, for Minkavkaz, for example, it is 37,5%, and for the Ministry of Economic Development, as an executor of the program for the development of the Kaliningrad region, it is 25%.

Whatever it was, now the Far Eastern ministry has a new state program, which Yuri Trutnev has already dubbed "the project for the development of the Far East." “We had questions regarding the government's“ project office ”. We were asked what project we can single out for him. We can single out a project called "Development of the Far East". It is laid out according to the design principle, as the project should work, so we put it together. We can also name the indicators for the next years, name how they will be achieved. All this is traced by the number of new jobs, attracted investments, new enterprises. This thing is designed as a project, ”Trutnev said in an interview with TASS. In his opinion, “we have not yet fully used the potential of the institutions that have been created for the development of the Far East. Today, a number of institutions are just beginning to delve into the problems. We will make sure that they work too. But the Far East Development Fund is working, the Far East Development Corporation is working. The Investment Promotion Agency and the Human Capital Development Agency are in their early stages. We must ensure that they are also useful. In general, we have created everything as a system ”.

The most important thing is that the State Program finally fixes the directing and coordinating role of the Minsk region in the processes of outstripping development of the Far East. But at the same time it was noted that "the task of accelerated social and economic development of the Far East is complex and can be solved only on the basis of interconnection in time and space of activities implemented by various federal executive bodies, state authorities of the subjects of the Russian Federation located on the territory Macroregion, as well as the largest companies ". "It is required to consolidate available resources within the framework of the model of concentrated development, realizing projects with maximum impact." The success of this consolidation will be met by the Ministry of Regional Development.
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