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Primorye-2030: what will it be?
New development strategy of Primorsky Krai: transit, industrial sites and innovative cluster
In Primorye, finally, a new development strategy up to the 2030 year, developed by the National Research University Higher School of Economics, has appeared. This lengthy document contains a lot of diverse information worthy of discussion. Here we will try to cover the whole and see its most significant features.
Lev Kolomitsindependent analyst
The most important task of the Strategy is “the creation in the region of favorable conditions for life, work, study and entrepreneurship, ensuring a steady migration attractiveness of the region for the population of Russia”. Strategic priorities - development of transport infrastructure and capabilities of seaports and cross-border infrastructure; gas chemistry and petrochemistry; shipbuilding and ship repair; fishery and timber industry complex; mining and enrichment of minerals; Agriculture; tourist and recreational complex; development of human capital (that is, in general, everything in the region is from a more or less lively economy). Note that a dozen priorities - this is an oxymoron and the path to the dispersion of resources, because you can not run in all directions at the same time.
How did the edge go to 2018? Primorye ranks “below average” in almost all economic indicators: 74’s place in the country and the last in the FEFD in the investment rating; capital productivity is lower than the national average (79 place in the country and 9 place in the DFO); payments to the budget per person employed in the economy are 100,27 thousand rubles (2 times lower than the average Russian figure). The tax burden on fixed assets - 3,16 kopecks per 1 ruble (in Russia - 7,9 kopecks, in the DFO - 5,67 kopecks), over 10 years, this figure in the region has more than doubled. Investment in fixed assets per person employed in the economy - 125,20 thousand rubles. (50 place in the country and the lowest in the DFO). The ability to update fixed assets (the ratio of investment to the value of fixed assets): 84 place in the country and the last in the DFO. Investment potential of value-added production: lower than the average in Russia by 4,4%, and lower than the average in the DFO by 9,5%.
In terms of the share of investments in GRP, the region takes 69 a place in the country and 8 in the DFO. The share of innovative products in the volume of GRP in the region for 10 years has halved - to 0,16%, which is 40 times lower than the national average (71 place in Russia) and 12 times lower than the average for the DFO (7 place) . The share of innovative products per person employed in the regional economy is 1,18 thousand rubles, which is 51 times lower than the national average (71 place in Russia) and almost 20 times lower than the average DFV (7 place). Investments in fixed assets in the economy of Primorsky Krai in 2016 amounted to 123,5 billion rubles (96,5 billion rubles for large and medium-sized organizations). According to this indicator, the Primorsky Territory lags far behind other regions of the Far East (Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) - 275 billion rubles., Sakhalin Region - 248 billion rubles.).
Such indicators have developed, despite all the preferences and advantages of the territory - the APEC-2012 Summit, the FEFU bridges and campus, the TORA and the Free Port, the best climate in the Far East, the presence of the sea, three borders, the highest population density and relatively well-developed infrastructure. Of course, the competition with the Sakhalin oil fields in terms of investment is obviously a losing business, but in all other respects the region does not look like a promised place. We need to talk about the reasons separately, but we will pay attention to the options for the future proposed by the Strategy. As an alternative to this, 4 scenarios are considered, obtained by combinations of pairs of factors: “low / high rate of implementation of backbone projects” and “low / high rate of infrastructure development” (derived from the volume of investments).
"Evolutionary scenario." Investments in infrastructure development remain at current levels. Reduced investment programs of state-owned companies, insignificant investments from the Asia-Pacific region. The main driver of development is the export of coal, oil and other commodities, the development of resource sectors (forest, fish). The risk of the scenario is the lag behind the average Russian level of growth (1 - 1,5% per year), population outflow.
“Infrastructure development”. State investments in infrastructure development will increase significantly, this will ensure a significant growth rate of the economy due to the growth in cargo handling. Project implementation rates are low. The growth rate is slightly higher than the average Russian (2 - 2,5%). Private and foreign investments are limited. Demographic increase is absent.
"Reliance on a private investor." The volume of state investment in infrastructure remains at the same level, the growth of investment from the APR countries, the increase in exports to China, the Republic of Korea and Japan. Accelerated development of Primorsky Krai as a transport and logistics complex. The maximum growth rate - 4 - 4,3%. Migratory increase at the expense of foreigners.
"Creative growth." Growth of state investments in infrastructure / growth of private (foreign) investments. Development of resource sectors, manufacturing, transport and logistics, tourism, education, health care, research and development. Increase in 2030 in the structure of GRP, the share of agriculture (by 0,5%), fish farming and fisheries (0,4%), the service sector (1,2%), education and health (0,8%), transport services (1,8%), industrial production (to 14,5%). Reduction in the share of construction (up to 5,7%), trade (up to 16,7%), and public administration (up to 6%). By 2030, the revenues of the consolidated budget will increase by 3 times (as compared to 2018 g) and exceed 476,2 billion rubles. The population will grow by 5,9%, the real incomes of the population will increase (by 189,4%) and salary (by 174,5%).
The last script is selected as the target. The version of reducing government investment in infrastructure and the lack of private capital for some reason is not considered - obviously, so as not to upset the customer. No doubt, in the presence of an alternative, any subject (including the subject of the Federation) would prefer to be rich and healthy than poor and sick. The desire of developers to set the edge of the high bar as a target is highly commendable, it remains to understand - how to ensure all this beauty?
THREE ELEPHANTS OF THE PRIMORSKAYA ECONOMY
The largest growth in production is expected in transport (270 billion rubles at the 1 stage and 430 - at 2), machine building (at the 2 stage - 370 billion rubles), and the oil and gas industry (360 billion rubles but 2 stage). Prospects for other industries are much lower: mining and processing of seafood - 130 (2030 for 213) billion rubles, agriculture - 45, timber industry - 45, mining and metallurgical industry - 40 (all figures are given in billion rubles for 2 stage, i.e., up to 2025 g).
In the area Transport - the mass of investment projects: “Big Port Zarubino”, Ring Road, Vladivostok – Nakhodka – Vostochny Port, Ussuriysk – Pogranichny Highway – State Border, Vera Port, New Coal Terminal in Partizansky District, coal terminal in b. Sukhodol, MTK Primorye-1 and Primorye-2, reloading complexes in Slavyanka, b. Perevoznoy and Vostochny, oil handling complex in b. Elizarova and others. The total investment is estimated at 977 billion rubles. The port capacity of the region is being upgraded according to the Rosmorflot program, by 2024, their total throughput should reach 157,65 mln. Tons under the basic development scenario (growth by 34,65 mln. Tons) or 243,9 mln. Tons under the optimistic scenario (growth by 120,9 mln. Tons) . The proposed measures include the development of cross-border, port infrastructure, improving the efficiency of customs services (1 stage), the development of logistics services, specialized services in the port areas, the development of digital infrastructure and technologies in transport and logistics (2 stage). By the end of the 3 stage, an international and interregional transport and logistics center should be formed in the region, digital solutions introduced, a network of roads and railways constructed and reconstructed in the northern part of the region (including the road from Bikin to Sergeevka and the railway Novochuguevka - Olga - Ore Pier).
Mechanical engineering. The industry should grow due to the shipbuilding cluster formed around the Zvezda complex, which should include localized assembly plants and technology parks. In addition, an innovation cluster should be created for underwater robotics and marine instrumentation. The same area includes the ship repair development project at Slavyansky Shipyard, the Sapphire propeller column manufacturing plant and composite shipbuilding. The volume of expected investments - 153 billion rubles. By 2020, the volume will increase to 180 billion rubles, to 2025 - to 370 billion rubles, to 2030 year - to 700 billion. In the third stage, before 2030, the region can become a specialized production hub.
Hydrocarbon processing. Investment projects - VNHK (660 billion rubles) and the Nakhodka mineral fertilizers plant (464,5 billion rubles). It is planned to create an internationally competitive petrochemical-chemical cluster in the region, which will ensure the export of high value-added products to the APR countries.
Fishery complex. Investment projects totaling about 63 billion rubles, among them - a plant for processing fish products; modernization of the fleet for deep-sea fishing; organization of the fish market in Vladivostok; creating an aquaculture cluster; modernization of refrigeration and storage infrastructure, and others. It includes steps such as deepening coastal seafood processing, developing the infrastructure for transshipment and transporting fish, expanding the catch of promising fish and seafood products, developing waste-free production, mining in open areas of the World Ocean, and promoting RCS production in export markets.
Agroprom. The main investment projects are the Rusagro and Primorsky Bacon pig farms, the construction of an interregional wholesale distribution center, the Tieich Rus Primorsky projects (animal husbandry), HAPC GreenAgro (dairy farms) and others, total 17 projects totaling about 183 billion rubles . Objectives: expansion of production through the development of organic farming, animal husbandry, the introduction of unused land into circulation and the creation of production cooperatives; increasing the efficiency of agro-industrial companies through the use of new production and processing technologies; access to the markets of the Asia-Pacific countries; staff development.
"Breakthrough zone" is considered science and technology, in which it is planned to form an innovative cluster on the basis of the Far Eastern Federal University. Planned investments - 141 billion rubles. With this money for about. Russian technology park, a "digital development center", a "megascience" installation (perhaps a synchrotron?), A pool of engineering and R&D departments of state corporations and large companies should be built. The task of developing technological entrepreneurship and innovation infrastructure, a support system for the commercialization of technologies includes such steps as the entry of scientific organizations of the Primorsky Territory into the areas of "MariNet", "FoodNet". “HealthNet” “AeroNet” and “AvtoNet” of the National Technology Initiative; creation of a regional instrument for subsidizing the introduction of scientific developments (in a simple way - a regional venture fund); technology brokerage support. In addition, it is proposed to support fast-growing high-tech small and medium-sized companies, expand the export of innovatively active enterprises, and train personnel taking into account the innovative needs of enterprises. Newly formed clusters - oil and gas, machine-building, agro-industrial, transport, fish and others - should become customers and consumers of innovations. The result will be a radical modernization of traditional and the emergence of new sectors of specialization of the regional economy.
HOW TO GET TO THE FUTURE
Several conclusions can be drawn from this brief review. First: a feedback system should be developed - monitoring (control) of the Strategy implementation and its adjustment mechanism.
Second. The new strategy continues the logic of the massive "secondary industrialization" of the region, aimed at completing the infrastructure of 1 (auto and railways) and 2 (engineering, petrochemistry, transport hubs) of the industrial revolution. Most of this infrastructure will be included in the production schemes of the countries of Northeast Asia, the smaller part will be involved in the development of the DFO domestic market. The infrastructure of the 3 th industrial revolution is represented by an innovation cluster on about. Russian. The image of the future for the region is a transport-transit and industrial zone, in which there are potentially noticeable processing segments with guaranteed demand, shipbuilding and petrochemistry oriented at the domestic market (the forest industry will shift here as it is modernized); and potentially export fish and agriculture.
Third. From the point of view of the theory of strategic management (see the classic work of I. Ansoff), the document in question belongs to the genre rather than strategic, but long-term planning, since it is an extrapolation of the given trends to the future — by external trends in relation to it by players (the government of the Russian Federation, state and private companies). In fact, we are dealing with a long-term program for the development of Primorye, in which federal tasks are projected onto the level of a document of regional significance. These trends define the future as a “continued present”: there are practically no new large projects (other than coal terminals) in the Strategy that have not been announced in previous 3-5 years. There are not so many places left for proper seaside actors (administration, municipalities, business, science, medicine, education, etc.): besides receiving social benefits, this is participation in “clusters”, maintaining life support systems and feasible assistance to large players in their arduous development of the region. Thus, it is stated that the development of this territory is impossible only at the expense of internal resources (financial, natural, competence and other), due to their obvious inconsistency with the scale of the tasks.
And finally, the fourth. Getting into the “optimistic scenario” for the region is not guaranteed - if only because its main components (the level of public investment and private investment) depend not so much on the edge as on other players and factors. In this situation, it seems appropriate to determine the internal priorities of the actual maritime active groups as part of the overall development strategy of the region. Let us indicate a few relevant, in our opinion, directions for such an action.
It is necessary to determine the direction of the economy, the priorities for seaside stakeholders, in which, unlike the mega-projects of shipbuilding and oil refining, they can act as initiators and owners of the “controlling stake”. Such areas, at first glance, are forest, fish, construction, ICT (practically not represented in the Strategy), agriculture and food production, trade, logistics, tourism, some spheres of industrial production. In this part, the Strategy gives quite a reasonable recommendation - to develop a regional program for the development of industry. In addition, it would be useful to develop and launch a number of regional programs that have a multiplicative effect — for example, a wooden house-building program.
It is necessary to include local business as a contractor in the coastal megaprojects of state corporations and large companies, for which we should analyze the regulatory documents of TOP and SPV, and, if necessary, make changes to them.
The region should actively participate in the formation of a scientific, technological and innovation cluster, which can potentially become a pass for Primorye into the post-industrial landscape of the next technological order. The success of this mega-project, despite its support at the highest level, is not obvious, since for the creation of such a cluster, in addition to money and political will, at least two more conditions are required: an over-concentration of intellectual resources and a high degree of cohesion of the participants. So far, we do not observe either one or the other around the project. To increase the chances of success, it is necessary to develop a strategy for the innovative development of the region and launch a discussion of the cluster between the main participants - FEFU, FEB RAS and resident companies, the results of the discussion should be presented to the project developer.