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Will TORs go to the Duma?

In the information agenda of the election-2016, seaside politicians, eager to enter or return to power, will have to take into account the skepticism and frustrations of voters that have accumulated over the past few years

Primorsky Territory is one of 38 constituent entities of the Russian Federation, where at the end of this year there are simultaneous elections of deputies to the federal and regional parliaments - the State Duma and the Legislative Assembly of the region, respectively. In other words, there will be another struggle for the votes of ordinary voters - the population of the region. Meanwhile, the pre-election informational and statistical background in the region is by no means favorable for the current government and those who claim to join it.

Will TORs go to the Duma?
The grandiose construction projects of the APEC-2012 summit (around which the election promises of many representatives of the political elite of the 2011 model were built around their positive image) turned into embarrassment with a number of unfinished objects. Somehow did not go well with the creation of "Far Eastern Oxford". The Far Eastern Federal University, located on the Russian Island, suffered a blow to the image of FEFU after the arrest of its rector Sergei Ivants and his deputies, accused of corruption schemes to divert budget funds.

Statistical measurements also speak against the authorities. So, according to the Primorsky Regional Department of Statistics, the number of Primorye residents (about 1,9 million people) decreased last year by 4,3 thousand people in general. According to various sources, over the past 5 years the population of the region has decreased by 24,6 thousand people. 44% - due to natural loss (excess of the number of births over the dead) and 56% - due to the migration outflow (excess of the number of those who left the territory over the arrivals).

According to the Far Eastern Ratings agency, Primorye ranked first among other Far Eastern subjects as of the beginning of 2016 in terms of indicators such as the “Level of extremism”) (annual increase in delinquency by more than 50%) and “The level of unpaid wages” (from January to March the amount of this debt has grown rapidly by more than a third, reaching the level of 413,8 million rubles).

The search for a positive agenda - and it is clear that an election campaign cannot be built without it - leads to one question, namely, is the topic with the TOPs and the Free Port of Vladivostok ready for the election test? Will her parties be raised to the flag (bayonet?), And if so, in what context. Obviously, the topic is "tasty", has significant federal support, but neither the TOPs nor the Free Port have yet acquired the form of specifics that are understandable to the population - the clear outlines of new enterprises and infrastructure.

“What are the recipes for solving social problems, to propose to affect the minds and feelings of people who have lost faith in 25 years?” topics of ASEZ, Free Port and corruption? "

The EastRussia correspondent asked to answer these questions from well-known political scientists of the region, representing both Primorye and the Far East as a whole. The following expert opinions represent, on the one hand, an assessment of the pre-election situation in the region, and on the other, a kind of forecast-recommendation - in what direction will (should?) Lead their strategy and tactics leading regional political forces.

Voter tired

Yuri Kolomeitsev, political scientist, director of the Black Cube Center for Social Innovation: “Obviously, in these elections, as in all previous elections, the communists will criticize the authorities and United Russia, saying that they know better the algorithm for overcoming the economic crisis. "SSErs" will develop the theme of "social", and, most likely, rely on the high rating of Putin: "he is not with us, but we are not against him!" The Liberal Democratic Party, as in all its electoral programs, will be harsh and loud.

"United Russia", of course, will build its slogans around the rating of Vladimir Putin (this rating in Primorye is about 80% according to the latest February data from the Center for Social Innovation "Black Cube").

But with all this turmoil, all the above parties with their program statements will be of little interest and understandable to the voter. Despite the time of crisis, in which the electorate, as a rule, believes in all promises about a bright future, the people still want not beautiful words, but beautiful actions, productive work and, moreover, without a “fried rooster”.

To the great regret of the parties, over the past five years they did not conduct systematic work with the electorate. For the most part, they just sat out and spent their budgets. But to the delight of these same parties, there are not many voters on the whole that are steadily participating in the elections. In order for non-voters to vote, three conditions must be formed: 1) a sharp decline in living standards and a deepening economic crisis; 2) the protracted inability of the authorities to overcome the crisis phenomena in the economy, which sharply worsened the standard of living in the country; 3) sharp criminalization of various spheres of public life. It is for you to judge whether these three circumstances have developed in the country or in a particular region or not.

Generally speaking, politicians running for elections (especially for the State Duma) can relax. It is enough to allocate a budget in 200 300 millions of rubles for advertising, to hang the streets of the cities of the Far East with not even the highest quality outdoor advertising with your face and wait for the "H" day. Since there is no one for whom the people would follow, and the choice in general is not great, these "portraits" will pass.

If one of the candidates for power really wants to know how the people live, what they need, then you just need to go to him and find out. And then - to offer solutions. This is several times less than the above amount.

Unfortunately, many who go to power, lately consider themselves inhabitants of heaven, and the people - "cattle" who do not need anything.
Imagine that some representatives of the political elite in the region did not hesitate to openly express their admiration for the work of political strategists in Spassk on the sidelines, which means that in the upcoming elections, there is a possibility that they themselves will act according to the “Spassky” scenario: “carousels”, bribery, deliveries - all that what they wrote in the media.

As for the exploitation of the topic of ASEZs and the Free Port of Vladivostok in pre-election rhetoric, it may be ineffective in terms of achieving mutual understanding with voters. Since the ASEZ and the Free Port of Vladivostok are long-term projects. They have been implemented for years, and the voter is tired of promises and wants clear, obvious examples of transformations. This must be understood.

I would not touch the topic of corruption at all on the spot of those who are planning to come to power. For the most part, the candidates are wealthy people and, according to the people, it is not for them to talk about corruption and embezzlement of budgets. Sociological studies stubbornly show that the people - for the most part - do not want to see entrepreneurs in power. People who have become poorer by 40% over the past two years are unlikely to be close to the reasoning of business candidates who own enterprises with million and billion dollars in turnover. "

Persuasive tomorrow

Leonid Blyakher, Head of the Department of Philosophy and Cultural Studies of the Pacific State University, Chairman of the Khabarovsk branch of the All-Russian Political Science Society: “Most likely, besides the usual promises to improve and deepen, reduce tariffs and prices, the promises will revolve around the idea of ​​TOPs and the prosperity / decline of the region associated with them ...

The communists and other left-wing forces will say that all this is empty projects, waste of people's money, etc. (there is some truth behind their position).

United Russia members will say what impetus TORs and the Free Port of Vladivostok will give to the development of the economy, the creation of new jobs, etc. Let's say frankly that there is also logic here.

Apparently, all political forces will offer the fight against corruption and social protection. Surely, everyone will one way or another use the theme of patriotism. In principle, these are quite winning topics. True, over the course of many years of operation, they have become a little boring. Therefore, the main competition will be not so much at the substantive level as at the level of persons and technologies, so to speak, the artistic design of the elections.

In general, it is difficult to say what can “offend” voters today. People are increasingly withdrawing into private life, distance themselves from most of the public manifestations.

Perhaps the candidates for power will have to paint an unprecedented, convincing image of “tomorrow” for the Far East. A person lives and acts actively when he believes in his future, longs for it. And here it is necessary not to explain or convince, but to seduce. The future must be so attractive that its implementation into reality becomes an obsessive desire of thousands and thousands of people. And then, regardless of most external factors, the movement will begin. Whether there is such a politician - I will not undertake to say ... ".

Waste your election efforts on skeptics is not worth it

High-ranking official from regional government agencies (on condition of anonymity): “Traditionally, the content of the campaign headquarters of a candidate or party is developed on the basis of three sources:

1. A pyramid of voter problems (based on social research data)

2. Federal media agenda (monitoring, analysis, forecast)

3. Regional media agenda (monitoring, analysis, forecast)

We can unequivocally say about the prospects of the themes of the "Crimean Spring", the image of an external enemy and joining in one form or another to the image of the President of Russia as a politician with the highest rating in the country.

Those who apply to be elected to power will have to find topics that disturb the voter. In any case, a person always lives with hope for a better future: Dum spíro, spéro. And the task of politicians is to support, develop and “anchor” this hope in their own image.

On the other hand, it is necessary to understand who is meant by skeptical and disbelieving voters. If, according to the data of opinion polls, these voters do not plan to take part in the elections, then there is no point in working out a separate information agenda for them.

The topic of ASEZs and the Free Port of Vladivostok is undoubtedly promising, as it is focused on improving the economy and, as a result, the quality of life of Primorye residents from many municipalities. IN 2006 2007 Over the years, such a topic (a key one in the information agenda of the United Russia party) in Primorye managed to complete the construction of facilities for the APEC summit. At the same time, the event itself (the meeting of heads of state) had almost no direct effect on the life of specific Primorye residents (with the exception of creating inconveniences in the form of overlapping routes, closing the water area, etc.). Moreover, in 2011-m In XNUMX, the large-scale construction of roads and interchanges in the city of Vladivostok in preparation for the APEC summit created such great inconveniences for the townspeople that it caused serious problems for the ruling party in the elections.

But today, as a resident of Vladivostok, I do not feel in the content of regional media and outdoor advertising a sufficient presence of the topic of TOP and the Free Port of Vladivostok as key elements for building the agenda of the campaign headquarters. Perhaps we will see them updated later .. ".

ER Help:

On September 18, 2016 in Primorye, elections of deputies to the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the regional Legislative Assembly will take place. The elections will be held on a mixed electoral system: voters will vote both for lists of candidates from political parties and for individual candidates nominated in single-mandate constituencies. The State Duma from Primorye is to elect three single-mandate deputies (the largest number of people's representatives in comparison with other subjects of the Russian Federation on the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District).
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