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Will TORs go to the Duma? - 2
In the information agenda of the election-2016, seaside politicians, eager to enter or return to power, will have to take into account the skepticism and frustrations of voters that have accumulated over the past few years
Previous publication EastRussia ("Will the TORs go to the Duma?") aroused active responses from readers. At the request of the editors, the EastRussia correspondent continued the survey of political scientists and experts.
Let us remind you that the grandiose construction projects of the APEC-2012 summit (around the positive image of which the election promises of many representatives of the political elite of the 2011 model were built) turned into embarrassment with a number of unfinished objects. Somehow did not go well with the creation of "Far Eastern Oxford". The Far Eastern Federal University, located on the Russian Island, suffered a blow to the image of FEFU after the arrest of its rector Sergei Ivants and his deputies, accused of corruption schemes to divert budget funds.
Statistical measurements also speak against the authorities. So, according to the Primorsky Regional Department of Statistics, the number of Primorye residents (about 1,9 million people) decreased last year by 4,3 thousand people in general. According to data from various sources, over the past 5 years the population of the region has decreased by 24,6 thousand people. 44% - due to natural loss (excess of the number of births over the deaths) and 56% - due to the migration outflow (excess of the number of those who left the territory over the arrivals).
According to the Far Eastern Ratings agency, Primorye ranked first among other Far Eastern subjects as of the beginning of 2016 in terms of such indicators as “The level of extremism” (the annual increase in delinquency by more than 50%) and “The level of unpaid wages” (from January to March the amount of this debt has grown rapidly by more than a third, reaching the level of 413,8 million rubles).
The search for a positive agenda - and it is clear that an election campaign cannot be built without it - leads to one question, namely, is the topic with the TOPs and the Free Port of Vladivostok ready for the election test? Will her parties be raised to the flag (bayonet?), And if so, in what context. Obviously, the topic is "tasty", has significant federal support, but neither the TOPs nor the Free Port have yet acquired the form of specifics that are understandable to the population - the clear outlines of new enterprises and infrastructure.
“What should we base our election promises on today?”, “What recipes for solving social problems should we propose to affect the minds and feelings of people who have lost faith in 25 years?” , "Free Port" and corruption? "
The EastRussia correspondent asked to answer these questions from well-known political scientists of the region, representing both Primorye and the Far East as a whole. The following expert opinions represent, on the one hand, an assessment of the pre-election situation in the region, and on the other, a kind of forecast-recommendation - in what direction will (should?) Lead their strategy and tactics leading regional political forces.
Petr Hanas, political consultant, director of the Far Eastern Consulting Center, member of the Russian Association of Political Consultants: “Today we can only talk about the general outlines of the election campaign, information agendas and the emerging political and economic situation, which will determine the strategies of candidates and parties. There is also a regional aspect - the need to stitch the elections to the Legislative Assembly of the Primorsky Territory (ZSPK) and the State Duma.
The outer contour of the upcoming campaign is super-high confidence in the President of the country. This contour is formed under the influence of a patriotic agenda that will be used by all parties. I would not argue that only the United Russia party and its candidates will be the beneficiary. Moreover, this outline only sets the vector, but does not form the content of the campaign in specific constituencies.
The electoral message and the problematic field are formed in the second circuit - in the domestic political agenda. Here we can talk about factors that play both plus and minus the current government and parties.
It should not be forgotten that the pressure of the crisis is increasing. On the emotional level, negative moods prevail. In such conditions, real deeds and personal communications come to the fore, rather than blowing up media bubbles and empty promises. At the same time, the boundaries between parliamentary parties are blurred in the mass consciousness, and there is a relatively high mobility of the party electorate. This means that in the end it is necessary to "take" your electorate by the hand and bring them to the polling stations, ie effective electoral mobilization is needed.
An analysis of past election campaigns in the ZSPK allows us to give several recommendations for parties.
First of all, it is localization and, if possible, elimination of intra-elite conflicts. This applies not only to United Russia, but also to the Communist Party, the Liberal Democratic Party, and small parties.
At all stages of the election campaign, it is necessary to ensure administrative non-interference, otherwise an electoral protest will be brewing.
Stitching campaigns of different levels and a large number of candidates requires a refusal to mimic other parties, otherwise the party as a whole will lose in this pulling the blanket over itself.
It is very strict to observe the principle "one constituency - one candidate from a party". In addition, it is very important that not individual image persons, but teams, go to the elections. In this case, both the party and its candidates will have more chances to show results.
To attract the population, election campaigns must be lively and meet the expectations of voters. Of course, the most difficult task is facing the United Russia party. In the context of the actualization of the crisis agenda and the delegitimization of regional and municipal authorities, the only possible way out is the stabilization of the situation in the economy and the formation of positive expectations.
And I would not reduce everything here to the TOP and the Free Port of Vladivostok. Rather, it is necessary to speak in general about the mechanisms of advanced development, as a tool to stabilize a stagnating economy and development. But, here the personalities transmitting this idea and accents in the presentation of materials are important. People should be able to “touch” residents and see social and economic shifts with their own eyes. Otherwise, it will be another "soap bubble" ... ".
Viktor Burlakov, head of the Department of Journalism and Publishing Business, FEFU, political scientist: “We can say with a great deal of confidence that the leading political forces of the Primorsky Territory will broadcast their traditional political ideas and theses.
Speaking about political forces, I mean political parties.
First, there is United Russia. During the elections to the ZSPK and, especially, to the State Duma, this party will probably try to use the high political rating of President Putin to the maximum extent possible and form a stable association among the electorate of Putin's policy with the United Russia policy.
In addition, by diluting its ranks with representatives from the National Popular Front (ONF), who may not be members of United Russia, the party can strengthen its position among entrepreneurs, for example.
The candidates from "United Russia" in the majoritarian districts will have a hard time. The mechanism of primaries (selection of candidates for power within a separate party) has not yet worked in the elections to the State Duma - the rules of the game are not fully understood and, most importantly, the basic requirements for potential candidates. We must not forget that the primaries are not only the choice of a good person, but also the choice of a passing competitive candidate. Neither voters nor United Russia members have a clear understanding of this yet.
Secondly, the Communist Party. The party, both at the federal and regional levels, has long been experiencing an internal crisis: a crisis at the ideological level and a crisis of generations. Communists cannot formulate a coherent, and most importantly, modern political program, while continuing to chew on ideas that are outdated in the last century. In addition, the staffing structure is being renewed poorly. This can be clearly seen at the regional level. In the upcoming elections, the communists will most likely go with the same ideas and provisions that were developed earlier, and will bet on the traditional electorate. It will be especially difficult for communist candidates in single-mandate districts, especially in the region.
Third, the Liberal Democratic Party. There are no surprises here. The established electoral campaign tactics, built on the exploitation of Zhirinovsky's image, and a stable electorate will do their job. No one will miss the stars from the sky, but the likelihood that the Liberal Democratic Party will be able to form a faction both in the Legislative Assembly of the region and in the State Duma remains.
Fourth, "Fair Russia". The party maintains a borderline position, and so far no signs can be traced to judge a change in this position.
Fifth, the entire set of "non-parliamentary" parties. Most likely, these parties will draw off the bulk of the protest electorate. Due to the fact
that there are many parties, and the protest electorate is traditionally small, there is no need to wait for a breakthrough.
Sixth, there is still the possibility of nominating independent candidates in single-mandate constituencies, both to the Legislative Assembly of the region and to the State Duma. The chances of these candidates are traditionally low, even if they are able to concentrate significant resources.
Moreover, this alignment is relevant today. The political forces have not yet entered the struggle in full force and have not revealed their trump cards.
Recipes for solving most of the social problems in the modern world have already been found, they are to one degree or another applicable to the conditions of modern Russia. If someone thinks that Russia has unique social problems or requires unique approaches to their solution, then he is deeply mistaken. At the same time, the determining factors in solving a particular social problem are the presence of a system of fundamental values shared by the majority of a given society, and the political will of the ruling elite. Unfortunately, in Russia today there is neither one nor the other.
The same can be said about the regional level, in particular, about the Primorsky Territory.
At the same time, there is no need for politicians to look for a way to the minds and feelings of skeptical voters from the point of view of the election campaign strategy. As a rule, those who do not trust the authorities do not go to the polls. Getting such an electorate to come to the ballot boxes and vote the right way requires significant resources. Therefore, it is easier to ignore this part of the electorate altogether. Moreover, the absence of a lower turnout threshold required for elections to take place allows this to be done.
As for the electoral topics raised by the candidates. Thus, the topic of corruption is always relevant. But no one believes the words about the need to fight it. It is quite obvious that the overwhelming majority of the country's citizens have an extremely negative attitude to this phenomenon. Therefore, not a single sane politician will promote corruption as a social norm. But the overwhelming majority of citizens need quite visible results of the fight against it. To use Putin's words, "we need landings." Without concrete results, simple reasoning about the harm of corruption will cause irritation rather than understanding. "
On September 18, 2016 in Primorye, elections of deputies to the State Duma of the Russian Federation and the regional Legislative Assembly will take place. The elections will be held on a mixed electoral system: voters will vote both for lists of candidates from political parties and for individual candidates nominated in single-mandate constituencies. The State Duma from Primorye is to elect three single-mandate deputies (the largest number of people's representatives in comparison with other subjects of the Russian Federation on the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District).