Face off

The Russian approach is more direct and relies on military force and energy supplies. China acts thinner and, taking advantage of its economic power and legendary patience, it persistently puts pressure in the east and south, at the same time playing on the nerves of its main opponent in the region - Japan.

Russian diplomacy

Coupled with China's continued strengthening, the return of Russia as an active participant in politics in Asia, given its anti-Western rhetoric, can create a problematic mix of the two forces that are eager to change the status quo in the region.

The most reasonable way to resist Russia is through economic integration, which, by and large, was the basis of the success of the APR countries. However, this turns out to be a daunting task.

“The region appeals to a sense of community,” says Shinooko Goto of the Woodrow Wilson Center Asia Program. - The problem of economic integration is that it is not deep enough. In Europe, apart from trade ties, countries are united by a common system of values, which does not yet exist here. "

Moscow’s policy combines diplomatic, economic and military elements. Joint military exercises with China have become commonplace. In August of last year, in the East China Sea, Russian and Chinese units for the first time worked side by side; the next exercises are planned to be held in the Pacific Ocean and the Mediterranean Sea.

Russia is also trying to balance between hotbeds of tension and to be on good terms with everyone. Japan, China's main rival in the region, is proposing negotiations over the disputed Kuril Islands, which the Japanese call the "Northern Territories." It also empowers Vietnam's navy with offensive submarines, lowers energy prices for any country willing to buy, and rebuilds influence in North Korea, from where China happily retreats, finding Pyongyang a difficult ally.

“Sooner or later, North Korea will have missiles that will not only damage neighbors but also much more distant countries,” said Christopher Hill, former US Assistant Secretary of State for East Asia and the Pacific.

Second turn

When US President Barack Obama announced a "reorientation" of policy towards Asia in 2011, he aimed to soften Chinese aggression in the region. He did not think about a "second reorientation" on the part of Russia, a serious force in Europe, which showed a willingness to use the conflict to achieve its own goals.

After the wars in Korea and Vietnam, Southeast Asia withdrew from the Cold War. The American security umbrella allowed the creation of the economic “tigers,” or the four small dragons of Asia — Singapore, Hong Kong, Taiwan, and South Korea — but out of this arose a new ideology that China and Russia are developing today. Known as Asian values, this ideology combines authoritarian governance with a strong focus on economic growth, where human rights are subordinated to the good of society in the understanding of power.

Taiwan and South Korea left this path to become democratic countries, as Japan did earlier, and these three countries are currently the main regional allies of the United States. Most other countries in East and Southeast Asia remain authoritarian or not fully democratic, although there are exceptions, such as Indonesia and the Philippines.

Despite serious cultural differences and a history of relations, full of differences, China and Russia share the fiery belief that Western-style democracy will be detrimental to them. China did not long try to apply this model before the 1989 events of the year on Tiananmen Square. Russia is still licking its wounds after the democratic experiments of the 1990s.

One of the options for the development of events - the United States and China, working as partners, will create new regional trade organizations in order to make them less politicized and contradictory. The devil is, of course, in the details, especially the Trans-Pacific Partnership, whose charter is very complex.

An example of friction that could escalate is the recent objection from the United States to Britain, which plans to become one of the founding states of the China-controlled new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, seen as a rival to the World Bank, where the United States in turn has great influence. ...

However, if differences can be ironed out and bylaws standardized, it is from this process that the unified structure that Asia-Pacific is looking for will grow. If the United States finds opportunities to work with China, Russia will have a choice to join or not.

By: Humphrey Hawksley - Asian specialist, BBC correspondent, author of "The Third World War" - a book-hypothesis about the conflict between Russia, China, India and the United States.