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Sakhalin region on the verge of a "new course"
Eastrussia, traveling with strategic excursions to the Far East, has already visited three of the four sides of this Russian “New World”: the south (Primorsky Krai), north (Yakutia) and west (Trans-Baikal Territory). It is time to look to the east - namely, on the Sakhalin region, where the change of power is just taking place and the process of preparing a new development strategy of the subject is launched.
Lev Kolomitsindependent analyst
As is known, the Sakhalin region is the 59 islands, to which you can only swim or fly; This transport isolation prevents communication with the mainland and at times increases the cost of any imported goods, from vegetables to furniture, especially in the Kuril Islands. It is not surprising that in the fishing artel in the village of Golovino in the south of Kunashir, from where, in clear weather, the mountains of Siretok are visible on Fr. Hokkaido, even the dishes in the kitchen were brought from Japan, which is only 17 km by sea, not half a km of a broken (once) road to the district center Yuzhno-Kurilsk. The economic inclusion in the Japanese economic system, characteristic of all the Kurils and a significant part of Sakhalin, is conditioned both geographically and historically.
At the same time, the Sakhalin Oblast, together with the Khanty-Mansiysk and Yamalo-Nenets Autonomous Okrugs, is included in the small pool of oil and gas regions of Russia, due to which 80% of the oblast budget is of hydrocarbon origin. These two circumstances - transport isolation from the mainland and the prevalence in the economy of the oil and gas industry - were considered in the Regional Development Strategy from the year 2011 (updated in the year 2016) as problems that need to be solved. According to the concept of 2016, the development of the non-oil and gas sector of the regional economy should have been a priority for the development of the region.
HOW WAS DESIGNED
According to the Strategy-2011 concept, the GRP volume was to reach 2015 in 829,3 billion rubles, in 2020-m - 1016,3 billion. The share of industry should decrease from 64% in 2010 to 54% in 2020, investment in fixed capital - increase from 135 to 331,7 billion rubles. The volume of agricultural production should be tripled, from 6,7 to 20,4 billion rubles. The export of coal (including for export) was planned to increase sevenfold - from 1183,1 to 7630,0 thousand tons. The turnover of small and medium enterprises should more than double, from 100 to 243,9 billion rubles. Also by 2025, it was planned to overcome the trend of depopulation of the population and bring its number to half a million people.
In order to stimulate the growth of non-resource business and living conditions of the population, the traditional “development institutions” of the economy were created: the Sakhalin Region Development Corporation, the Sakhalin Mortgage Agency, the Sakhalin Investment Promotion Agency, several advanced socio-economic development territories - Mountain Air "," South "and" Kuriles "; several districts received the Freeport regime. The points of application of efforts are the competitive potential of the fuel and energy and fisheries complexes, energy, transport and tourism.
A few words about TOP. “Mountain Air” is a famous Sakhalin ski base, which, according to the website of the regional government, visited 2015 thousand people in 60 in the year, more than 2016 thousand in the 86 year. By optimistic forecast, by the year 2025 the flow of tourists will increase to 1 million people ( however, it is unclear where they will come from). TOR "Yuzhnaya" includes Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Aniva and Tomarinsky urban districts, it is the center of the agro-industry and food industry. 5 investment projects for 15,3 billion rubles and 1,4 thousand workplaces are planned within the framework of the Kuriles PDA. The anchor project is a center for deep processing of fish and aquatic bioresources.
The Strategy also announced the creation of several industrial and agro-industrial parks in Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk: it is an “innovative technopark of modern construction technologies” worth about 400 million rubles; transport (1 billion rubles) and service (7,8 billion rubles) industrial parks. According to the website of the regional government, while projects are at the stage of registration of land.
The 2017 Region Development Corporation began financing six investment projects, including a pig farm in Aniva district, reconstruction of the port of Shakhtersk, a mini-plant for the production of LNG, two complexes for the production of milk, processing of agricultural products in Tomarinsky district, and -Sakhalinsk.
In addition to the Strategy, already in 2018, the Comprehensive Plan was adopted, in which five centers of economic growth were identified: “South” (includes Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk, Korsakov, Aniva, Nevelsk, Kholmsk, Dolinsk, Makarov), “West” (Aleksandrovsk-Sakhalinsky District, Uglegorsk, Tomari), Vostok (Poronaysk, Tymovsk, Smirnykhovsk), Sever (Nogliki, Okha) and Kurilsky (Yuzhno-Kurilsk, Kurilsk, Severo-Kurilsk). Under this plan, in 2018 - 2020, it is planned to spend about 40 billion rubles for the construction (reconstruction) of the 161 facility in the areas of education, health, fuel and energy, transport and road facilities, utilities. Before 2025, the region should have implemented up to 111 investment projects with a total value of 2,3 trillion rubles; 11,6 thousand jobs will be created.
ACHIEVEMENTS OF THE SAKHALIN NATIONAL ECONOMY
According to the results of 2018, the GRP is estimated at the level of 1,15 trillion rubles, or 104,9% by the 2017 year - that is, more than planned. From 2014, the GRP increases. In the total volume of GRP 63,7% accounts for mining. The volume of industrial production amounted to 1088,1 billion rubles. (106,8% to 2017 g). The volume of investment in fixed assets - 291,9 billion rubles.
The volume of the consolidated regional budget is unstable: in 2018, it amounted to 170 billion rubles, which is more than in 2017 (130 billion) and is comparable to the level of 2016 and 2014, but significantly less than in 2015 (240 billion) . In the 2017 year, according to the regional Ministry of Finance, tax and non-tax budget revenues amounted to 113,2 billion rubles, while in the 2016 year they amounted to 131,7 billion, in 2015 - 207 billion. Basically (by 82,7%) these are corporate profit taxes ( under the PSA for the Sakhalin-1 and Sakhalin-2 projects) - 42,6 billion, and the share of government profits on the same projects in 20,3 billion, and also 16,3 billion personal income tax.
Such a fall was the result of lower oil prices, the ruble rate against the dollar, and the share of income tax in the regional budget from 80 to 75%. It is worth noting that in 2018, these revenues will decrease, because at the end of 2017, the State Duma was accepted a bill providing for the redistribution of oil and gas revenues (tax on profits from the Sakhalin-2 project) in the proportion of 75% to the federal budget, 25% to the regional budget (this year was the opposite). This means that the regional budget lost almost a quarter of its revenue (about 25 billion). True, the Russian government promises to return part of the money seized to the region in the form of transfers.
According to the Strategy, for 2010 - 2015 years 89,4 million tons of oil and condensate, 160,6 billion cubic meters were produced in the Sakhalin Region and the adjacent shelf. m of gas. In 2011 - 2015, 63442,8 thousand tons of oil and condensate and 112,3 million cubic meters were shipped for export to the APR countries. m. liquefied natural gas (LNG). Production is growing: in 2018, 19,3 million tons of oil and gas condensate was produced, 32,4 billion cubic meters of gas, 11,4 million tons of LNG were produced, and the District Refinery produced 52,0 thousand tons of oil products.
The prospects include further development of the Sakhalin-1 fields (2 stage of development of the Odoptu field and 2 Chayvo stage), start of operation of the Kirinsky and South-Kirinsky gas condensate fields in the Sakhalin-3 project, development of the North-Veninsky gas condensate fields, Aniva gas, District, development of South Dagi. It is planned to build a third line of the LNG plant, refining and gas chemistry facilities, and to conduct geological exploration on the Sakhalin-3, -4 and -5 projects.
Non-oil sectors of the regional economy are represented by the mining and processing of seafood, agriculture, transport, construction and energy, none of these sectors occupy more than 5% in GRP. At one time, the main fishing industry for the region forms today the entire 3,4% of GRP. In the 2018 year, 672,2 thousand tons of seafood were caught (95,3% to the level of 2017 g), 491,72 thousand tons of fish products were produced from this raw material - by 6,4% more than last year. Almost half - 280 thousand tons worth about $ 568 million - exported to China, Korea and Japan. At the same time, over the year more than 233 mln rubles of subsidies have been granted to fishing enterprises.
Fishermen actively use the TOP mode for the development of production. Thus, the Ostrovnoy fish factory in Shikotan is implementing an investment project to expand capacity in the TOR “Kuriles”, at the end of 2018, 621 million rubles were mastered. There is also the construction of a new processing plant, worth almost 3 billion rubles. In Yuzhno-Kurilsk, a plant for the production of fish meal and fish oil is being built, the cost of yu more than 1 billion rubles. In addition, several fish hatcheries are being established on Sakhalin and Kuriles. On the territory of the sea port of Korsakov, it is planned to create an industrial and logistic complex for the storage of fish products.
In agriculture, a wide field of activity opens up for investors: for the 2017 year, the region’s own milk and meat supply was less than 20%. It is not surprising that several large agroprojects were announced in the Yuzhnaya TOR "Pork-breeding complexes (including Mercy Agro Sakhalin"), greenhouses, Green Agro-Sakhalin milk production and others. Agricultural output for 2018 year - 10,6 billion rubles, or 106% to the level of 2017 year.
The transport theme for the region is traditionally painful, and increased attention should be expected. The main efforts of the Strategy were aimed at modernizing the airport of Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and the airfields on the Kuril Islands. The rest is federal powers: for example, the Russian Railways conducts an alteration of the famous Sakhalin narrow-gauge railway built by the Japanese to the network-wide gauge. The main problem of 11 operating seaports of the region is the large physical deterioration of hydraulic structures and insufficient depth at the berths, which is why the steamers are forced to load in the roadstead. The port economy is engaged in Rosmorport, as budget investments become available, modernizing the ports of Kholmsk (breakwaters and navigation), Korsakov and Shakhtersk. A separate plot is the Vanino-Kholmsk ferry: as you know, in recent months, many days of car queues have been formed in Vanino due to the lack of ships. To replenish the aging fleet, the Russian government in 2016 allocated 5,543 billion rubles for the construction of two road / rail ferries, which should be commissioned this year.
IS THERE A LIFE ON ISLANDS?
Despite the huge (in proportion to the population) budget and positive socio-economic indicators, the region loses not only the traditionally depressed regions of the country in terms of the quality of life of the population, but even its neighbors in the okrug: rating quality of life RIA for 2017 year the region is 53 line, yielding Primorye, Khabarovsk Territory (what else can be explained by the best climate and the presence of Transsib), and also - suddenly - Kamchatka and the Magadan region, where there is neither hydrocarbon production, nor railways, and the climate is obviously worse. In fresh rating The Ministry of Construction for landscaping of the region is 6 place among the subjects of the FEFD.
Despite the growth of the GRP and a deficit-free budget, the state programs for 2017 have been implemented by 91%, failures in the programs for the development of inbound tourism (60%) and health care (64%). Indicators of previous years — before the withdrawal of regional budget revenues for the needs of the development of the Far East — are even lower. Within the framework of the adopted system of reporting indicators, it is impossible to establish direct dependencies between the set of indicators and the actual situation; Nevertheless, it can be concluded that there is a gap between the trend of growth of financial security and production volumes on the one hand, and the preservation of the low quality of life of the population - on the other.
Perhaps we are dealing with a lag in the effect of the development steps already taken: as explained by the director of the Institute of Law, Economics and Management of SaGU To Ken Sik, the adoption of the “new economic policy” in terms of 2016 of the year was right, but the belated step would be more effectively, be it made much earlier, with high oil prices. Another problem is the efficiency of the use of funds: to what extent will the products produced in local TOPs be competitive in the market? For example, there are concerns of this kind about the price and quality of local meat. Finally, the problem of attracting private investment in the TOR is still not solved.
The effectiveness of the “development institutions” is evaluated differently - for example, by the efforts of the mortgage agency in the region, perhaps the only one in the country, rental housing has been built. The more interesting is the history of withdrawals from the capital of the Development Corporation and the mortgage agency, according to a recent the decision regional Duma, more than 20 billion rubles to finance the infrastructure in the framework of the development of "centers of economic growth".
Formally, the strategy indicators are executed. But whether this leads to the achievement of the goal - “ensuring the growth of the social development indicators of the Sakhalin region to a level above the average values for the Russian Federation” - cannot be said on the basis of the available data. Thus, the assessment of the effectiveness of the implementation of the Strategy-2011 is subjective.
The more interesting is the new turn in the planning of the regional development of the subject: at present, the regional government has announced a competition to develop a new strategy for the social and economic development of Sakhalin and Kuriles until 2035. The tender documentation contains the following substantiations of the need for such a document: first, these are new national tasks on the breakthrough scientific, technological and socio-economic development of the Russian Federation, ensuring the introduction of digital technologies in the economy and the social sphere, and other tasks set in last year’s May decree ". Secondly, it is the need to link the goals and objectives of the development of the region with the national program for the development of the Far East, developed on the instructions of the President of Russia. This point is somewhat surprising, since the deadline for submitting the strategy to the customer (September) coincides with the dates of the WEF-2019, on which the national program must be presented to the president - that is, the preparation of both documents will be conducted simultaneously, and it is not quite clear how in these conditions the first will be tied to the second.
The tasks of technological breakthrough and digitalization, added to the already existing and not yet solved, actually declare the construction of the infrastructure of the 6 technological structure on top of the unfinished or missing infrastructures of the structures from 2 to 5. Sometimes this complicates matters (there is no Internet without electricity), sometimes it contributes (if there is no CHP, then it is easier to build a wind turbine). But such a “jump through the engine” imposes strict requirements on the preparation, planning, organization and resource support of the “jump”.
Here, as a first approximation, there are several such requirements that should be taken into account in the strategy and its implementation.
First: the optimization of budget expenditures with the fixation of a rigid bundle “costs - results”, measured not only in standard indicators, but also in indicators reflecting the real situation. In particular, it is an assessment of the situation in the social sphere and the definition of indicators reflecting the real state of affairs - for example, the reasons for the decline in the population of the region.
Second: assessment of the development mechanisms created during the implementation of the previous strategy (including “development institutions” and PDA), with subsequent conclusions on the need to preserve / expand / reduce / reform them.
Third: inventory of investment projects to clarify their relevance, profitability and feasibility.
Fourth, from the captain Obvious: if you do not build basic infrastructures (transport, energy, communications), then investors will not come - therefore, in the absence of budgetary funds, it may be worthwhile to apply the concession mechanism.
As stated in such cases, the list is incomplete and can be continued.