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The development strategy of Khabarovsk until 2030: what the municipal authorities promise

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Dmitry Shcherbakov

Editor in Chief EastRussia
The other day the Khabarovsk public is  The press service of the mayor's office reported, Discussed the draft strategy for the development of the municipality until 2030. Write a strategy with the planning horizon 30-th year is now fashionable. Whether it will be possible to execute them is a huge question. However, everyone, I think, is interested in how we will live through 15 years (imagine only, 2030 will hit me in 46). Therefore, especially for Khabarovsk - cutting off any scientific blizzard, I squeeze out of the multipage project only tsifir. Dreaming together.

For starters, macroeconomics.

Increase in the turnover of organizations (excluding small businesses) - from 448,6 billion rubles. in 2016 to RUB 1175,4 billion. in 2030. Growth 2,6 times. For 15 years. Pretty impressive. At the same time, the turnover of small enterprises (including microenterprises) in all types of economic activities will grow from 314,8 billion rubles. up to 1088,3 billion rubles. - 3,45 times faster, therefore. Where this optimism comes from, I don't know. The turnover of industry, according to officials and scientists, should grow from 98,9 billion rubles. to 262,5 billion rubles, manufacturing - from 54,5 billion rubles. up to 138,9 billion rubles, production and distribution of electricity, gas and water - from 44,3 billion rubles. up to 122,3 billion rubles. An increase in the volume of investments in fixed assets (excluding small businesses) - from 56,1 billion rubles. in 2015. up to 203,3 billion rubles. in 2030. As you can see, everything will grow, nothing good will fall (and what will fall - more on that below).

However, this is all far from the people. There are indicators that are much clearer. For example, retail trade turnover should grow from 192,5 billion rubles. in 2016 to 547,9 billion rubles. in 2030. Growth 2,8 times. Why then the mayor  swears on the projects of water parks, next to which there will be new shopping centers? [The initiator of the construction project of the water park on Pionerskaya Street in Khabarovsk prepared documents for obtaining a construction permit, however, he was criticized by the mayor Alexandra Sokolova: “I am with both hands for the construction of the water park. But you do not get a water park, but a giant shopping complex with a small pool. The water park should be larger and the most modern, but for the concomitant trade the place can be planned smaller. There are enough shopping centers in Khabarovsk ”, - approx. Ed., a quote on the newspaper "Kommersant"]. There are only 15 years left, the retail space needs to be rapidly expanded. Otherwise nothing will come of it.

A little about the carnal. Growth in catering turnover - from 12,2 billion rubles. up to 44,9 billion rubles. 3,6 times. Comrades, this is just great - how many new restaurants will open, do you feel? Or their prices will rise. There is no third.

However, if a couple of words about inflation - it is planned to reduce the cost of living index from 135% in 2016 to 125% in 2030, the decline in the consumer price index from 107,5% in 2016 to 102,8% in 2030. There will be practically no inflation. Oh well.

Which ones, meanwhile, are we going to walk in taverns? Correctly. The increase in the average monthly accrued wages (nominal size) - in 2016 it will be 47,5 thousand rubles, in 2030 it will be 145,6 thousand rubles. Many of us receive 145,6 thousand rubles now? You know, in this future I want to heal as soon as possible.

The question arises: how much can you buy with this salary? I answer. The increase in the purchasing power of wages is planned from 3,26 cost of living in 2015 to 6,1 cost of living in 2030. What does this mean, think for yourself. But it looks good. Pensions, again. An increase in the average monthly amount of assigned pensions from 13,9 thousand rubles. up to 44,4 thousand rubles. (in comparable prices).

Oh yes. Work will be all. Almost all. Of these, 34% is in small business. Reducing the number of unemployed - from 1,2 thousand people. Up to 800 people For the whole city - 800 official unemployed. If all these people are the same unemployed, as now it happens only with some (with suburban mansions, Lexus and stuffed with a dough bubble) - it will be straightforwardly generally good. But - alas, will not.

At the same time, the city authorities will try not only for themselves. It is planned to increase the number of foreign tourists visiting Khabarovsk to 25 thousand in 2030. How many of them will be in 2016, for some reason is not specified. I'm afraid to assume. However, apparently, the times in 2-2,5 times less (in so many times in 2030-m should be the provision of tourist services).

Do you know what all Internet cables in the city will be like for 2030? Increase of the share of trunk communication lines with the capacity of 10 Gbit / s - up to 100%. Here so.

Now all the same we will return to people. That is to us.

We will not be 612,7 thousand people, as it is now. And 640,9 thousand people. At the same time, children will be added from 98,1 thousand people. up to 115 thousand people Pensioners - from 132,8 thousand people. up to 151,5 thousand people

60% of schools will be provided with a comprehensive overhaul. 100% of children between the ages of 1 and 6 will be in kindergartens. But I especially like this: "Increase the index of people's satisfaction with the quality and accessibility of services in the sphere of culture from 82,29% in 2016 to 90% to 2030. Annual increase in the number of visits to theater and concert events at 4%. Annual increase in the number of participants in cultural and leisure activities at 7,5%. " Life will be more interesting for us, because we will become more cultured. Well, in gyms it will be easier to walk: "Increasing the level of provision of the population with sports facilities - from 44,7% in 2016 to 60% to 2030." Turns will be less.

The main indicators of life in our glorious city for the next 15 years can be seen in the table below. 

Indicator name 2015 (fact) 2020 2025 2030 Average annual rates
2017-2020 2021-2025 2026-2030 2017-2030
The number of resident population, thousand people. 609,2 616,0 615,7 612,8 0,08 -0,01% -0,09% -0,02%
622,0 632,3 640,9 0,37 0,33 0,27 0,32
The number of people employed in the economy, thousands of people. 365,3 348,2 338,3 334,2 -1,38% -0,58% -0,24% -0,64%
353,5 348,8 348,2 -0,90% -0,26% -0,04% -0,32%
Number of registered unemployed, thousand people 1,10 1,10 1,01 0,95 -5,52% -1,64% -1,15% -2,36%
0,97 0,82 0,80 -3,96% -3,51% -0,47% -2,45%
The level of registered unemployment,% 0,32 0,31 0,28 0,27 - - - -
0,26 0,22 0,22
Turnover of organizations (excluding small business entities), billion rubles. 433,1 559 743,7 931,3 5,66 5,88 4,60 5,36
570,9 848,1 1175,4 6,21 8,24 6,75 7,12
Turnover of small enterprises (including microenterprises) for all types of economic activity, billion rubles. 299,6 424,6 623,7 862,3 7,77 7,99 6,69 7,46
433,6 711,2 1088,3 8,33 10,40 8,88 9,26
The volume of own-produced goods shipped, work performed and services rendered in-house by industrial types of economic activity, billion rubles. 95,6 124,8 164,6 199,0 5,97 5,69 3,87 5,17
130,9 190,7 262,5 7,25 7,81 6,60 7,22
The volume of investments in fixed assets, billion rubles. 56,1 77,3 110,2 142,5 7,64 7,35 5,26 6,68
90,2 153,1 203,3 11,86 11,16 5,84 9,42
Consumer market
Retail trade turnover, RUB bln 180,3 253,1 333,5 410,7 7,08 5,68 4,25 5,56
260,2 397,2 547,9 7,82 8,83 6,64 7,76

Let's check them through 15 years.
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