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Between gas and coal
The centers of the coal industry will be transferred to the East
The head of the Ministry of Energy, Alexander Novak, announced the updated program for the development of the coal industry in Russia until 2030. Its funding, according to Russian Prime Minister Dmitry Medvedev, will exceed 5 trillion rubles. The most important difference of the program is the increase in coal production in the Far East and Siberia.
Under the transfer of "development centers of the coal industry" is meant the development of new deposits in the region, the press service of the Ministry of Regional Development said. Coal mining in the Far Eastern Federal District, according to the program, to 2030 should be increased from 33 to 75 million tons per year (with an all-Russian growth from 350 to 480 million tons per year at best). As noted in the press service, the increase in production will allow the development of new deposits in this macroregion (more than 70%) and bring it to 190 million tons per year.
"The economic cooperation with China on the possible development of three fields may influence the increase in the projected volumes of coal mining by the year of the year. These are two deposits in the Amur region (Erkovets and Ogodzha) and one in the Trans-Baikal Territory (Chikoyskoye), "the press service of the Ministry of Regional Development told EastRussia.ru.
Analyst of the National Energy Security Fund Igor Yushkov sees a contradiction in the development of energy in the Far East.
This is not the only example of competition between gas and coal, the expert believes. In all strategic program documents of the Russian authorities ("Forecast of socio-economic development of the Russian Federation before 2030", "Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation to 2030" (and the project "Energy Strategy of the Russian Federation before 2035 year")), the idea of reducing the share of gas generation for , In order to balance the energy balance.
There is already no economic development in Russia, which means that electricity consumption is stagnating. Therefore, less fuel is needed. At the same time, settlements are being converted to gas, in particular, Vladivostok. Consequently, the only opportunity to increase coal production is an increase in exports, the expert summed up.
According to the company "RAO Energy Systems of the East", in 2013 the share of gas in the fuel balance of the company was 41,16%, coal - 56,6%.
"The development of coal mining, subject to the fulfillment of all plans of companies in proportion to the overall Russian coal production, should be to a greater extent in the Far East (Elga development, Ogodzha deposit, Apsat deposit, Neryungrinsky deposits)," EastRussia.ru was informed by the deputy head of the public communications department of RAO ES of the East "Anastasia Brazhina. - However, their development will be associated with an increase in exports. For our energy companies, the increase in coal output will only be provided by the growth of a competitive environment. The increase in coal consumption by new generation facilities will not be so significant in comparison with the plans of coal companies to increase production. "
Now, RAO ES of the East is engaged in the construction of three CHPPs (in Vladivostok, Blagoveshchensk and Sovetskaya Gavan) and two SDPPs (Yakutsk and Sakhalin). Of these, the 2 line-up of Blagoveshchenskaya CHPP, TPP in Sovetskaya Gavan and Sakhalinskaya GRES-2 - coal projects.
"The capacity of the complexes intended for transshipping coal in seaports is planned to increase from 91 million tons to 190-230 million tons per year. Most of the port facilities will be brought to the Far East. By 2030, it will amount to 155 million tons of coal per year, - EastRussia.ru was told in the press service of the Ministry of Regional Development. "The port potential is focused primarily on the export of coal to the APR countries, as well as for the replacement of terminals in Ukraine and the Baltic countries."
The export of coal to the APR countries (produced through coal terminals in the ports of Primorye and Khabarovsk Krai) is hampered by the low capacity of the Far Eastern Railway (Far Eastern Railway).
Although if the state takes over the provision of infrastructure for export of coal, this will be a significant help for private companies, as it will reduce their costs, the analyst believes.
Opportunities for increasing coal production in the Far East are, I'm sure the director of the Energy Development Fund, Sergei Pikin. Increasing production volumes is a matter of markets. If the markets digest large volumes of products, then more intensive production in the east of Russia is possible.
"If in the Far East coal generation will develop with the potential for export, there will be a need for coal mining. But at the moment there are no special needs for coal in the Far East of Russia. On the contrary, the task is to gasify the region, "S. Pikin told EastRussia.ru.
Expanding the geography of production is necessary in order to export coal to prospective markets. Meanwhile, according to the expert, it is more logical to sell electricity than coal.
"In the Asian market, Russia will have to seriously compete with Australia. And the consumption of coal by China is very high, this leads to a situation of permanent environmental disaster in the cities of China. The smog constantly stands in the air, which also includes smoke from the burning of coal, "I. Yushkov said. - Therefore, China does not need Russian coal in large quantities. China has its own coal reserves, which, if necessary, can be extracted. "
"Of the large coal consumers in Asia, there are Japan, South Korea, Taiwan. There it is possible to supply coal. But here the question of price arises. Will the Russian coal miners compete with the same Australia? With our high tariffs for transportation by rail, this is a big question, - said I. Yushkov. - Russia's share in the coal market of the APR countries is now 5,9%. But the Ministry of Energy sets a goal to increase this figure to 10%. "
The largest players in the Russian coal market, SUEK and Mechel, in the Far East produce 14,1 mln. Tons and 10 mln. Tons, respectively.
The total export volume of SUEK coal in 2013 amounted to 38,7 million tons, of which 58% - to Asian countries. SUEK supplies coal through a terminal in Vanino (Khabarovsk Territory) to Japan, China, South Korea, and Taiwan. The company is confident that Russian coal competes successfully on the international market, despite the “high cost of Russian coal (due to the long rail transport link to the ports - more than 4 thousand km) and the constant increase in costs (rising fuel prices, rising wages , growth of tariffs, etc.). This is especially relevant in the context of a protracted (about two years) price decline in global coal markets. ”
"Mechel" monthly sends its partners in the APR countries more than a million tons of coal products. "Given the conjuncture of commodity markets, the sales policy of Mechel envisages the expansion of the client base, primarily in the APR countries," the press service said. The port of Posiet, which is part of Mechel's structure, and the port of Vanino, with which stable partnership relations are established, are used for transshipment of coal. Mostly the company ships its coal to China, Japan and South Korea.
"Russian coal in international markets successfully competes, especially when it comes to coking coal. "Mechel" is increasing supplies to the countries of the Asia-Pacific region since 2011. According to our estimates, in the coming years the APR will take the first place in the volume of exports of Mechel's coal products - up to 70% of the projected supplies, "the press service of Mechel said.
According to the Ministry of Energy, the total volume of Russian coal exported since the beginning of 2013 amounted to 141 116,0 thousand tons, including 88 871,0 thousand tons shipped via sea ports (63,0% of total exports).
The average export prices for Russian coal in December of the year 2013 amounted to: for energy coal - 74 $ / t, for coking coal - 87 $ / t.
The price of the international cellular coal market in the ports of shipment at the end of 2013 was: 84 $ / t - Australia, Newcastle port; 62 $ / t - Indonesia, the port of East Kalimantan; 89 $ / t - Russia, Vostochny port (Nakhodka).
In total, 2013, in the Far East of Russia, produced 33 199,9 thousand tons. 2012 - 35 141,5 KT.