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"Who did not have time, he was late"
Gennady ShmalPresident of the Union of Oil and Gas Producers of Russia
- Demand for Russian energy resources in Europe is falling, oil prices too. How to be in this situation?
- Today there is no shortage of energy resources in the world, and this is due in some measure to the increase in oil and gas production by the United States, including in connection with the development of shale deposits.
As for Europe, then we see that the economy is not growing, it is in stagnation or, at least, in stagnation, so, naturally, there is no increase in demand for energy resources. But in general, we have a lot was tied up or involved in Western Europe.
Now we need to think about what to do next. I believe that we should intensify our work in the eastern direction, where, in addition to China, there is Japan, there is South Korea and a number of other countries. Moreover, we do not have a very long time pause, because many countries, including those in the East, are making certain efforts to increase LNG production (liquefied natural gas - author's note). And if we do not make it in the next, say, five years, then we will be late, and this niche will be occupied, then it will be much more difficult to break into the market of the Asia-Pacific region. I mean, first of all, what NOVATEK is building today, the Yamal LNG plant, and a number of other projects. Rosneft also has proposals, Gazprom offers etc. That is, we now have projects that are still in our heads mainly for the creation of LNG capacities, approximately 80 million tons per year. Of these, we have 10 on Sakhalin, within the framework of Sakhalin-2, 16,5 - what NOVATEK does, and the rest. Therefore, of course, these are the questions that need to be thought about. In principle, you need to constantly monitor the situation, monitor, as it is fashionable to say today, in order to take the necessary actions on time, and not late. Unfortunately, the time factor is the most immediate economic category, and whoever did not succeed is late, and perhaps forever. Therefore, you cannot be late.
- Do you think the "turn of Russia to the East" is really feasible in the coming years or not?
- Is there a situation like the bridge over the Amur, when the Chinese have already begun to build, but we can not figure out who is to blame?
- Unfortunately, we have too many purely bureaucratic obstacles, for a long time there is agreement. Therefore, of course, one of the tasks that faces our entire management system today is to reduce barriers to the implementation of investment projects. Not to mention the fact that we must also think about reducing the cost of these facilities. Well, there are a whole host of other problems.
- Is import substitution becoming an obstacle?
- You know, I prefer another term. Recently we held a special conference on this issue, and I liked the position of Bogdanov (Vladimir Bogdanov - General Director of Surgutneftegaz - author's note), who said that “we have no such word. We are constantly studying all the new technologies that appear in the world, in Russia, and we are introducing them, and therefore we have the word “import independence”. " Perhaps this approach is more interesting.
- When in modern Russia we will become import-dependent?
- It is not necessary to do this completely, it is unrealistic. And every time why reinvent the wheel ourselves ?! It was invented a long time ago. There are different goals and objectives, today it is 60% of import dependence. I think that it is impractical and wrong to set such a task, otherwise it will be too expensive a pleasure. But for many things, for example, 99% of the oil and gas complex's demand for pipes, we can provide ourselves. Perhaps, except for only a very small number of some special pipes. When we deal with LNG, temperatures there are up to minus 163 degrees, so not every metal can withstand. And here, perhaps, foreign materials will be required.
I was recently in Germany, and businessmen and bankers who are ardent opponents of all these sanctions say: "We will work." For a year now we have been working under sanctions, our oil production has not dropped, but increased. Gas fell slightly, but this is due to the fact that the problems were different.
The interview is written in XIII Moscow International Energy Forum "Russian Fuel and Energy Complex in the XXI Century".