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Who will pay the bridge through Lena?
The next step brings the long-awaited construction for the largest Russian region, which has been repeatedly postponed
On Friday, the Chinese state corporation Sinohydro Corporation Limited and the Consulting Agency Project Management Agency signed an agreement on rendering financial advisory services in the framework of the project to build a bridge across the Lena in the Yakutsk region, which provides for the development of its financial model. The next step brings the long-awaited construction for the largest Russian region, which has already been postponed more than once. What will happen to the bridge across the Lena - finds out EastRussia.
In the development of the topic, we note that the approximate course of the bridge project is already known today: the project will be developed in 2017, the bridge will be built in 2018, and put into operation in 2022.
The Russian company Project Management Institute (PMI) is currently preparing a financial model of the project. It will be completely ready by the end of this autumn. Moreover, it should be noted that its development was somewhat delayed - as it was assumed that the company PMI will present a ready financial model of the project on the site of the Second Eastern Economic Forum. But this slowdown has its own reasons - the final financial model is complicated now by the fact that the project currently does not have design estimates, and the corresponding survey work was not carried out for it.
Currently, the project is of great interest at once in two Chinese state corporations - with one Chinese state corporation, Sinohydro Corporation Limited, a Memorandum has already been signed, on the other, China Railway Construction Corporation (CRCC) is the parent company of China Railway Corporation 18 bureau ”, negotiations are underway on its financial participation in the project.
More about the main benefits. First of all, thanks to the introduction of the bridge, which will ensure the year-round connection of the two banks of the Lena and connect Yakutsk with the railway, the annual freight volumes in the region will grow threefold, amounting to 6 million tons. Moreover, the appearance of the bridge means certain prospects for transit cargo traffic - among other things, it presupposes the possibility of using it for the transit of goods destined for the Magadan Region, Chukotka and the Krasnoyarsk Territory. Thus, with the advent of the opportunity to use the scheme of import of transit cargo through the Yakutsk transport hub, the volume of transit cargo flows through Yakutia can reach 576 thousand tons. Secondly, not much, but the volume of northern deliveries in the Republic will decrease - due to the fact that a number of northern regions will become transport accessible. Not much, because accessible, in the end, will be only 20% of the current 60% of inaccessible in winter time territories of Yakutia. Thirdly, the bridge will serve as a powerful impetus for the development of a number of gold ore deposits in Yakutia - Zaderzhansky, Duetsky, Tabor, and placer - Lower Jemigdy, Silent-Vidny and many that are part of the technological Gold placers in South Yakutia. In addition, the introduction of the bridge will increase the efficiency of many industries located in the immediate or relative proximity to it. At the same time, due to the functioning of the bridge, there will be appropriate conditions for new competitive industries in the field of ferrous metallurgy, oil and timber processing, and the production of mineral fertilizers. In turn, as a consequence of the emergence of all these industries, the construction materials industry will also develop in the republic. At the same time, the functionalization of the bridge will result in a decrease in the cost of the consumer basket by 15-20%.
A bit of history
The question of constructing a bridge across the Lena in the Yakutsk region has been worked out since the beginning of the 1980-ies. At that time, the variants of the bridge spanning in three sections were considered: at 38 km above Yakutsk and below it - at 28 and 45 kilometers. The first option was chosen, the advantages of which will be discussed below. Then, in 1986, the first feasibility study of the project was presented. After that, various construction options and technical solutions in the bridge project were considered and, as a result, the following scheme was chosen: (2x154) + 4x308 + 5x (2x154) m, with a total length of 3180 meters. Under this scheme, the deepest part of the riverbed is covered by four metallic arched span structures each 308 meters in length, with puffs in the form of a through truss with a triangular grid. The arches of height 55 meters are united by a system of longitudinal and transverse connections, as well as transversal beams of the railway passage and an orthotropic slab of road traffic. In addition, bridge supports with inclined to the horizon and a planar edge cut in plan contribute to better ice flow, ice breakage, reduced wedging and arched formation.
In 2008, just such a project received a positive conclusion from Glavgosexpertiza of Russia. Its value at that time was 124 billion rubles. But the attempt to go along the path of his state funding was not crowned with success: the state had no money for it at that time. After that, in April 2013-th year, from Dmitry Medvedev received an order to build a bridge on a concession basis. The state, acting as its participant, was ready to invest in the creation of a bridge over 40,2 billion rubles (in prices of the first quarter of 2013), including 15,5 billion - in 2016, 7,6 and slightly more than 9 billion - in the next two years and 8 Billion rubles - in 2019 year. The rest of the expenses - at least 20% - the concessionaire had to find independently, at the expense of own or raised funds. Then - in 2014 year - it seemed that the construction of the Yakut bridge - the question had already been resolved. But reunification with the Crimea changed plans, the state appeared at that time a more priority bridge.
Official Yakutsk continues to search for options for implementing the project. Among the options for financing, even a pledge of a part of ALROS 'shares was considered. But, as this proposal did not meet with the response of the Russian Government, the authorities of Yakutia began looking for investors abroad. During the 2015 year, the project was presented at the site of the first Eastern Economic Forum in Vladivostok, the Second Russian-Chinese Expo in Harbin (PRC) and the 7 session of the Foreign Investments Fair of China. At the same time, the Government of Yakutia together with Rosavtodor held a series of negotiations with potential investors from China.
The first result took place at the end of 2015 year - 3 December, as part of the Transport Week in Moscow, a memorandum of intent was signed to implement the bridge construction project between Rosavtodor and Sinohydro. The visit of the representatives of Sinohydro for Yakutsk to further discuss the implementation of the project and hold a series of meetings with interested parties was held with 14 on 17 March 2016. 24 June 2016 in the Third Meeting of the Intergovernmental Russian-Chinese Commission for Investment Cooperation in Beijing, the project to build a bridge across the Lena was included in the List of joint Russian-Chinese investment projects. At the same time, in July, Russian President Vladimir Putin supported Yegor Borisov's proposal to attract Chinese investors on a concession basis for the construction of the bridge.
Some technical details
The bridge will pass through the Lena in Tabaginskoye alignment, located in the Tabaginskoye cape, at 38 km upstream of the Lena River from the city of Yakutsk. Tabaginskoye cape, in turn, is located in 2 km to the south of the village of Tabaga, at this point the width of the Lena River in its middle reaches is relatively small - up to 7 km, thanks to which the cape was chosen for the construction of the automobile-railway crossing. Thus, the route of the bridge crossing in the Tabaginskiy alignment is with. Tabaga - with. Khaptagay. If we talk about the stretch of all the objects that make up the bridge complex, then, as already mentioned, its initial point is an abutment to the federal highway M-56 "Lena". The final point of the complex is an adjunction to the motor road of regional importance "Umnas" Yakutsk - Olekminsk. There are no bridges and hydraulic structures on the proposed section of the bridge construction and it is possible to get from one bank to another only by ships, ferries or by winter road. As for the parameters of the bridge complex itself, according to the order of the Government, given in April 2013, its total length is 21,2 km, of which the length of the automobile bridge is 3,2 km, the length of road approaches to it is 18 km. At the same time the project implementation period is 14 years, including design and construction - 6 years, operation - 8 years.
According to hydrological studies, the flow of the Lena from the village of Pokrovsk to Yakutsk (including it) - that is, including in the Tabaginsky section, does not exceed 1,3 m / s, and for the most part even drops to 0,5-0,7 m / s. At the same time, the depth of the Lena River in the middle course, which includes the Tabaginsky trunk, is 10-12 meters. Engineering-geological surveys, in turn, showed that almost the entire Leno-Indigirsky region, including the territory of the planned construction, belongs to the continuous frozen zone. Moreover, in a large part of the region the thickness of the permafrost exceeds 500 m, and the normative freezing depth in the floodplain is from 320 cm to 470 cm. Seismicity of the construction site - 7 points. Observations that were made from 1953 to 2006 showed that the calculated thickness of the river ice of the Lena section above which the bridge crossing is supposed to be erected is 250. One of the characteristic features of the opening of this section of the river is the formation of powerful jams. The length of the mash ice accumulation in the area of this area and on either side of it can reach 90 km. At the same time, the climate of the territory of the Tabaginsky site is characterized by a sharp continentality. In winter, the air temperature here reaches –65 ° C, in summer + 35 ° C.
At the same time, the location of the bridge in Tabaginskoye alignment is not approved by all today. There are opinions according to which with such a bridge arrangement at least half the time of the year - all winter - it will not be convenient for people to use it, since it takes about an hour to get from Yakutsk to the village of Tabaka. Much faster in this case, it turns out to cross directly over the ice. In the Agency for Investment Development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), in turn, correspondent EastRussia explained that the decision to build a bridge across the Tabaginsky Cape is due to the fact that the Tabaginsky target is the most suitable for the construction of the bridge in engineering-geological terms from the three options considered: Kangalassky, Zhataisky And Tabaginsky. Tabaginskiy variant is preferable both for the length of the bridge crossing (it is the least), and due to the natural protection of the left-bank approach to the bridge crossing. At the same time, the construction option above the Tabaginskiy line is more optimal in comparison with others because, given the high load in the future of the bridge by freight transport, it is not entirely expedient to organize the traffic of passing traffic through the city.
Will invest and the state
Despite the fact that the financial model of the project is not yet ready, in the State Institution "Agency for Investment Development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)" the scheme of its funding for the EastRussia editorial board has been lighted up a little, and also explained why the final cost of the project is still unknown. "The fact is that the previously developed model of the project is currently being updated in accordance with the modern, slightly changed in recent years, the Russian economy, including those with new prices on its market. That is, in many ways it is now recounted. But as to how the project will be financed by the state, now it is perfectly possible to say that it is a federal one and will be included in the new Federal Target Program "Development of the Russian Transport System", which will be adopted by 2020 year - in its Subprogram "Highways". Accordingly, until 2020 year, no funds are expected from the federal budget - the concession agreement mechanisms will be used to finance the project. At the same time, Rosavtodor is the initiator of the project to build the bridge Yakutsk-Nizhny Bestyah. As for the financial presence of the region in the project, no involvement of the regional budget in the project is expected. In turn, SinoHydro will not return its investments in the project, not at the expense of future fare for the bridge, but by receiving other revenues from it and indirectly related to its functioning. Since, according to the law on concessions, the bridge that runs through Lena will be a priori free. Despite this fact, Sinogidro's interest in it is quite understandable, since by investing in it financial resources, it at the same time acquires the opportunity to use in it available other resources and competencies. And also because, by investing in the Yakutsk-Nizhniy Bestyakh bridge, this state corporation is thereby participating in the implementation of a project unique in all senses, "the EastRussia correspondent was told at the State Agency for Investment Development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia).
The Ministry of Transport of Russia, at the same time, did not guarantee the inclusion of the project in the new Federal Program "Development of the Transport System of Russia", but noted that such a probability exists.
Thus, while it is not clear exactly how Sinohidro will return the money invested in the bridge. In the Agency for Investment Development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia), they are not concerned about the possible risks, noting that "the advantages of this project are obvious, and the protection from risks will need to be ensured by the terms of the concession agreement and other documents in accordance with the legislation of the Russian Federation, Control over fulfillment of obligations by the parties ". Options for the Chinese are - the company, for example, can deploy any trade in the immediate vicinity of the bridge in the calculation of the population of Yakutsk, relatively well-off compared to the inhabitants of the main territory of Yakutia. Or, for example, create your own operator for the transport of goods on it.
In general, while experts see one benefit for the Chinese company from participating in the bridge project. "It should be taken into account that the leadership of the PRC and state corporations are guided by the idea of placing excessively accumulated capacities in China, including labor, in order to avoid risks of social tension. Being focused now on solving the problem with its manpower resources, the People's Republic of China is looking for investment projects around the world, including complex jurisdictions on the African continent, so the Russian risks for Chinese companies are not the greatest. At the same time, Chinese state corporations are co-financing usually only on the condition that Chinese construction workers and Chinese companies are involved in the construction projects envisaged by these projects - design, engineering, etc. And also provided that Chinese technologies are used in the construction. And in the case of Russia, we can say even more - that the investment in any of its projects by China, in fact, means that the project will be almost entirely Chinese - because as part of it, finance will be provided by the Chinese bank to a Chinese contractor, who, in turn, A considerable part of them will spend on salaries to Chinese workers, "said Partner of the Goltsblat Law Firm BLP LLP Oleg Khokhlov.
He added that at the same time one of the key risks that China faces when investing in the Yakutsk-Nizhny Bestyah bridge construction project is currency risks, given the volatility of both the ruble and the yuan. Especially, given that there is a long-term return on investment.
It does not shine
The Agency for Investment Development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) at the same time noted that the possibility of participation in the project of investors from other countries will be accurately determined after the signing of the concession agreement. But theoretically, the creation of a multinational consortium of investors within the framework of the project is possible, however, unlikely, since in practice this type of cooperation is rare. And to the question of whether proposals were made to invest in the project for businesses implementing projects in the territory of Yakutia, EastRussia correspondent was told that for implementation of infrastructure projects due to their specific features and scale, an anchor investor with special competencies and resources, including financial ones, is needed. From which follows the conclusion that the business operating in the territory of Yakutia, as potential investors of the project was not considered.
The community of Russian railroad builders refers with some skepticism to the "Chinese" construction of transport facilities in Russia. "Out of all the factors that can influence the project implementation, I would highlight the solutions that will become the basis for the design and working documentation." Most likely, they can be quite peculiar, since Chinese designers and engineers have their own ideas about designing. , The project designed by the Chinese company will be more expensive than if it were carried out by a company with construction experience in the region, but at the same time it will surely be reliable. "A piece of granite," said the President of the Union roiteley Railways Gennady Talashkin.
In his opinion, in principle, to attract Chinese companies to Russia not only as a source of financing, but also as builders - the prospect is not unambiguous. For the simple reason that Russia has its own construction organizations that are fully capable of building "its own" - in the full sense of the word - transport facilities - in particular, to design them based on that practice in Russia, including its permafrost zones And low temperatures, which they already have. "China is now interested not only in the construction of transport facilities in the Far East, but, for example, in Western Siberia - almost the same difficult for the construction region. Moreover, in order to cope with the construction in such difficult conditions, he involves many of his structures in the work. Therefore, of course, there are no doubts about the successful creation of transport facilities by China on the territory of Russian macroregions with complex physical and geographical conditions, although they are unusual for them. Maybe he can even create them faster than if they were engaged in Russian companies. Here the question in the other is how profitable is the construction of transport facilities on the Russian territory by China for the Russian economy? If we talk about the same Far East - Russia now has a goal to develop this region, and not the Chinese business on its territory. After all, the fact that he is engaged in this or that project in Russia means in fact that later he himself will make money on them, returning the funds invested in them in a much larger volume, "Gennady Talashkin, a correspondent of EastRussia, drew attention to.
In addition, he pointed out that the conduct of China's construction of transport facilities in Russia is advisable unless politically. Because it makes sense to involve him only while creating joint ventures with him. To ensure that its companies perceived the Russian experience and practice of such construction. And, accordingly, so that Russia, in turn, takes over from them all sorts of new technological opportunities - in order to develop its own construction complex.
Meanwhile, the Agency for Investment Development of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) believes that the attraction of Chinese technologies will positively affect the cost of the bridge, but note that, like any construction project in Russia, the bridge project will necessarily pass state expertise. And, as for the Chinese companies with whom they are negotiating, they have a lot of experience in bridge construction, including in difficult conditions. But, at the same time, the experience of Russian specialists and their experience in construction in the conditions of permafrost and extremely low temperatures will be taken into account when designing and building a bridge across the Lena.