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Who will invest in the Far East and when?
ASI estimated the investment attractiveness of the Far Eastern region for the "troika"
EastRussia analyzes the results of the National Rating Agency for Strategic Initiatives and cites the arguments of experts
The Far Eastern constituent entities of the Russian Federation are losing on a regional scale in the struggle for investment at the regional level. However, positive dynamics are still present. Thus, Kamchatka was among the leading regions in the direction of “Support for small business”, and the experience of the Sakha Republic (Yakutia) was included in the collection of best practices based on the rating. Improved its position and Primorsky Krai. Experts agree with the results of the rating, but point out the incorrectness of some comparisons and evaluation criteria.
The National Strategic Initiatives Agency has been forming the National Rating in cooperation with the leading business associations of the country since November 2014. The rating assesses the efforts of all levels of government in the regions to create a favorable business environment. The main part of the indicators is based on surveys of regional entrepreneurs.Rating is not a competition area.
According to the head of the Agency’s representative office in the Far Eastern Federal District, Olga Kurilova, the task of the ranking is not to rank the regions, but to create conditions for the full-scale implementation of the best management practices. “We aim to assess the results of the efforts of all levels of government, from federal to municipal, including the work of law enforcement and supervisory authorities, to create favorable conditions for doing business,” she explained.
Compilers identify best practices using this rating. And by September a compilation of 50 best management solutions will be published.
"Our goal is to create a system of incentives for the authorities in the regions. The task is to involve the business in all the processes of change. The rating should not be perceived as an end in itself, as a dogma. It is a tool by which you can change the conditions for business, improve the quality of the business environment in the region. But do not forget to involve the business in all the processes of change, "- said Olga Kurilova.
On the other hand, the rating is an indicator of the work of the authorities with the business. “This is a feedback - what is finalized and what remains to be done. We would like to analyze the rating, representatives of the government and business of the DFO regions see more opportunities for the implementation of management practices, ”said the head of the ASI office.
She added that there is already an order from the president to create a center for training regional officials. The center can become a platform for improving the skills of officials and implementing the best management decisions in the regions.
Analyzing the position of the district in the ranking, Olga Kurilova noted that, in general, the region showed good performance, and in some areas it even became a leader in the country.
"If we take the indicator" effectiveness of business registration procedures, "the Far East ranks fifth among the eight regions represented in the rating. In terms of "the effectiveness of procedures for issuing construction permits" - the seventh place. On the effectiveness of procedures for registration of ownership - the sixth. According to the procedures for connecting to electricity - the penultimate, seventh place. On the effectiveness of procedures for setting up a cadastral registration - also the seventh place, "- said the interlocutor.However, she urged to take into account the fact that this is the first full-scale rating. “We cannot yet assess the dynamics, that is, the efforts of the authorities to improve conditions in the federal district. Only in the three regions that entered the previous pilot rating, ”she added.
According to Olga Kurilova, now the FEFD, given the attention of the president and the government, has all the opportunities for growth. “It’s important not just to take a place in the rating, but to show a positive trend,” she noted. According to her, those entities that took part in the pilot project have already shown positive changes. Thus, in terms of the “land cadastral registration” indicator, the Primorsky Territory significantly improved its result. Today this procedure in the province takes 27 working days. “This is one of the best indicators in the country. Perhaps the practice of the region will be included in the collection of management practices, ”the interlocutor noted. Another “improved” indicator is the registration of ownership: instead of 67, this procedure now takes 17 days.
Yakutia demonstrates consistently positive results. “Yakutia and Kamchatka in the whole country are included in group“ A ”on supporting small business. These are excellent indicators, ”the head of the office added.
From the above, Olga Kurilova concludes that the regions can create the conditions for doing business and can improve the conditions for small and medium-sized businesses, using their powers."Of course, there are indicators that we are unlikely to be able to improve due to our own geographical location. Thus, the Far East is still inferior in terms of the quality of infrastructure accessibility. It is not easy to improve the indicator "assessment of the quality of telecommunications services by entrepreneurs". Because, for example, there is still no fiber in Chukotka, Kamchatka and Magadan. But there are indicators that are in our power ", - the employee of the Agency for Strategic Initiatives is sure. For example, the Jewish Autonomous Region demonstrated the best pace of registration of enterprises in the Far East - this indicator takes 9 days (group "A"). According to statistical data, the share of roads in the Amur region at 87% corresponds to regulatory requirements, and this is also an indicator of category "A".
“The region has excellent growth opportunities. Therefore, we urge not to chase places in the ranking, but to work to ensure that the business environment is comfortable for entrepreneurs. We would like the subjects to see opportunities to improve conditions for business with the help of a new tool, ”added Olga Kurilova. According to her, the Agency's experts analyze every single indicator with the regions. “We have already conducted such work in Magadan, the Jewish Autonomous Region, the Khabarovsk and Primorye Territories, in Kamchatka. Ahead - Yakutia, the Amur region and Sakhalin. According to business reviews, we see that the more the head of the subject and his deputies are immersed in this agenda, the better the quality of the business environment in the region, which, of course, has affected and will affect, among other things, the rating results. It is important for us not only to launch and conduct a rating, but to involve businessmen quantitatively and qualitatively in improving the environment, ”she concluded.
Said - not done
Analysts admit the "backlog" of the Far East, agreeing with the results of the rating. "In the Far East, the recession is continuing for the third year after the investment boom that followed the APEC summit. The low population density in this territory (total 7 million people versus 15 million Moscow agglomeration) forms completely different sales markets, "comments Natalia Zubarevich, the director of the regional program of the Independent Institute of Social Policy, professor of the geographical faculty of the Moscow State University. That is, if the volume of production is calculated for 7 million people, then in the Moscow region the entrepreneur already receives a double market, while in the Far East he must incur enormous transport and logistics costs in order to sell the goods.
According to Natalia Zubarevich, investors do not go to problem regions for objective reasons. Because to change such parameters as rise in price, weak population, lack of opportunities to invest in resources (because the rest is not particularly interesting) is impossible. And the regional authorities, according to the expert, have nothing to do with it. "The reasons for low investment attractiveness are objective in nature," the analyst believes.
“Therefore, investors should look for niches in the region that regions with a higher investment attractiveness cannot provide,” she added. Among investment-attractive industries that could act as a locomotive for the Far Eastern territories, she named the fishing industry in Primorye, the Torah and the Vostochny space center in the Amur Region, as well as the development of friendly relations with neighboring countries (China, Korea).
"You can differently relate to the results of the rating, but it can not be denied that some regions, in particular Primorye, improved their performance. The Kamchatka Krai has also performed well, "said Vladimir Zakamov, chairman of the Commission for the Promotion of Economic Growth of the Public Chamber of Primorye. According to him, this is the result of joint tight work of the regional administrations with business. "But there is still a lot of work ahead, first of all, in support of small and medium-sized businesses. However, in general, the vector of development can be assessed as correct. If the pace is not reduced, then we will be in the top ten ", - concluded the expert.
Analysts note that the low performance of some regions is an excuse to step up work. "A low indicator of investment climate in the Khabarovsk Territory is a signal of regional authorities. The region took a deserved place in this rating. It is necessary to analyze each indicator separately and find out what it is composed of, and what factors influence it, and begin already targeted work for improvement, "said Sergei Mazunin, chairman of the Khabarovsk regional branch of Opora of Russia.
On the other hand, analysts note, it is important not what place in the ranking is the province or region, but how entrepreneurs evaluate the situation. "The fact is that the criteria have changed many times. And, for example, the Khabarovsk Territory was then at the head, then at the end of the list. It is important to find out what criteria are applied. For us, the most important thing is how entrepreneurs assess the climate in our region. Therefore, now I do not quite understand the ASI evaluation. After all, if I go into the history of changes over the past six months, I do not see any reason to make a statement about the deterioration of the investment climate, "said Oleh Gerasimov, Ombudsman for Entrepreneurs Rights in the Khabarovsk Territory.Some experts also regard the ASI rating as incorrect. Yuri Krupnov, Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Institute for Demography, Migration and Regional Development, considers it improper to compare the indicators of the Far East and the center or the Volga region of Russia. "It is also possible to compare the conditions for the growth of wheat in both tropical Africa and the far north. That's why, I think the rating is incorrect, "the expert said. According to him, behind him is a "cutting neoliberal model." "It turns out that there is an abstract globe and abstract investors who invest somewhere. However, this is not the case. We must understand that the Far East, except for Russia, is not needed by anyone. Here, no investor in his right mind will invest. This applies to the Russian investor, "the expert believes.
In his opinion, any large projects that are being implemented in the Far East are government projects, and not abstract investments. “Even the Sakhalin oil and gas complex is Russia's total investment. The word investment does not reflect reality at all. These are capital investments of the state in the system of strategic planning, ”says Yuri Krupnov.
The expert believes that the main problem of the Far East is the lack of powerful federal strategic development projects. “Where to invest? The main problem of investing is not the availability of money, but in the absence of real projects, ”he added.
"Instead of the state's forces concentrating on such projects, instead of this territory they study" aesthetically ". The state should enter another economy of project development, and not look down on the regions, "Yuri Krupnov summed up.
Doctor of Economic Sciences Alexander Latkin also calls the assessment of the regions this ASI "very conditional." "The ratings are intangible. The main parameter is the volume of attracted investments. They can be considered as a proportion of GDP, or per capita. There are many nuances. But one can draw a conclusion today: after a year of sanctions, the ardor of many potential investors has cooled down, "the source said, and cited the Republic of Korea as an example. "A few years ago we jointly issued a guide for a foreign investor. Each year, several symposia were held. Their interest plummeted. You can say the same thing to Japan, and about America, and, of course, European countries. The rating is obviously low - it's a fact, "believes Alexander Latkin.
The reason, the analyst believes, is that foreign investors are closely looking at the binding nature of Russian initiatives in the Far East. “If two years ago there were quite a few of these initiatives, including the creation of state corporations, special economic zones, the initiative to distribute a hectare of land to each of the Far East, then today there are only TORs and the free port of Vladivostok. But, and these projects are trimmed (from the originally proposed). Delayed time for the shipyard. The petrochemical complex is also "silent." On the whole, there is a clear decline in government activity in the region. There is no money in the country. And one of these days one more “blow” - a statement that LNG will not be built in Vladivostok, ”notes Alexander Latkin.
It is the fact that the government does not behave consistently even in program promises, and the investor is alarming.
"The real situation in Russia indisputably repels potential foreign investors. The cost of credit resources (on average 20% per annum) is twice the best profitability. No sensible entrepreneur is hanging out here. This is the effect of financial leverage. Profitability should be higher than the cost of credit resources. And there are no prospects for reducing loan rates, "he added.
Commenting on the indicative indicators of the rating, Alexander Latkin agreed that despite the capital investments, the infrastructure in the Far East, in the full sense of the word, is much more backward than in Russia. "Labor resources are a very high level of migration, this can be seen even in sets in universities. The third part of the population is people of retirement age, "he noted.
According to the analyst, to make people live here, it is necessary to create a system of high-quality public services - to raise public health, education, security and legal protection of the population.
"As for attracting investors, the state should really confirm the plausibility of the planned initiatives and plans and their financial security. Perhaps even within the framework of any intergovernmental agreements. "Said-done" - this should be the principle of state initiatives, "the expert concluded.
The autonomous non-profit organization Agency for Strategic Initiatives to Promote New Projects was created pursuant to the instructions of the Chairman of the Government of the Russian Federation V.V. Putin from 17 in May 2011 in order to support socially significant projects and initiatives of medium-sized businesses, young professional groups in the social sphere and promote professional mobility.
The methodology includes three key elements: a system of indicators, principles for collecting and processing data, and a method for calculating results. When developing the methodology, the experience of existing domestic and international ratings and other mechanisms for assessing the investment climate was taken into account. The analysis is carried out on 47 indicators, which are grouped into 18 factors, which in turn are grouped into four areas: "Regulatory environment", "Institutions for business", "Infrastructure and resources", "Support for small business". By "Regulatory environment", the compilers of the rating understand the quality of the provision of public services - indicators of the effectiveness of the provision of various public services for business: the time of passage, the number of procedures and the satisfaction of entrepreneurs with typical administrative procedures (for example, registration of legal entities, issuance of construction permits, issuance of licenses, registration of rights ownership of real estate, connection to the electricity grid, connection to the gas pipeline). “Institutions for Business” refers to their effectiveness: the availability and quality of institutions to protect and improve the investment environment. Performance indicators and dynamics of development of institutions and mechanisms for business (for example, the availability and quality of legislation protecting the rights of investors, mechanisms to support investment activities). Availability and quality of infrastructure - indicators of the performance and level of infrastructure development, as well as the availability of resources for doing business and investment activities (for example, the availability of physical infrastructure and resources - such as roads, telecommunications infrastructure; the availability of investment infrastructure (technology parks, industrial parks, etc.) incubators); availability, qualifications and sufficiency of the necessary labor resources. And, finally, the level of development of small businesses (for example, the number of small businesses per thousand people of the region's population) reflects the effectiveness of various types of support for small businesses (for example, an assessment of procedures for obtaining state and municipal order for small and medium-sized businesses, assessment of real estate necessary for doing business, assessment of the availability of credit resources, etc.).
After conducting interviews with entrepreneurs and experts, samples are formed. The first is indicators that are evaluated by peer review. For each region, a database of 35-40 experts is formed on the basis of lists of candidates submitted by business associations (Opora Rossii, RF CCI, RUIE, Delovaya Rossiya) and the Agency for Strategic Initiatives (ASI). The sample of respondents for peer review is formed randomly from List of candidates submitted. The number of interviewed respondents to each of the regions is at least 20.
The second sample is the indicators assessed by interviewing entrepreneurs from the general population. The survey on indicators for which there are no specific requirements for respondents is carried out using a multistage stratified sample that represents a qualitative business model of the region in general, and also represents each region according to two criteria - the size and industry of the enterprise. For each region a general sample of enterprises is built on the basis of official regional statistics on the number of operating enterprises. The basis of the structure of the sample set is laid down two basic criteria for representation: the size of the enterprise, determined by the number of employees and the annual revenue, and the industry, according to OKVED code. Enterprises-respondents are selected by quotas randomly from the database of enterprises "Spark-Interfax". The principle of random selection of respondents is provided mechanically within the formed population for each of the regions. The volume of the basic sample is 300 respondents per region (the maximum statistical error is 5,5%).
The third sample - indicators, estimated by interviewing entrepreneurs from special general sets - is formed using probabilistic selection in a one-step method. The selection is carried out by the “target” (directed) method. The selection of respondents takes place according to predetermined criteria, for example, the real experience of interaction between businessmen and authorities on certain issues or the receipt of certain services, encounters with certain situations, etc. For each group of questions formed the basic set. At the same time, lists of potential respondents may be used, represented by business associations (Russian Support, Chamber of Commerce and Industry of the Russian Federation, Russian Union of Industrialists and Entrepreneurs, Business Russia), ASI, as well as federal, regional and local executive authorities, agencies, organizations that carry out assessed actions registration of enterprises or connection to power grids). From a given set of randomly polls the required number of respondents. If necessary, the basic set can be recruited several times. Within each of the basic aggregates, mechanical (systematic) selection takes place. The minimum possible number of respondents with target selection for each region of this study is 25 respondents (except for situations where the entire population is less than 25).
During the rating, the baseline data necessary for calculating the results are also collected. For example, data on individual respondents on any indicator for each subject of the Russian Federation, statistical data in natural values, expert estimates.
Subsequently, all data is formed into a single information array, and is represented on four levels, and then aggregated using formulas.
In the pilot approbation of the rating in 2014 participated 21 region of the Russian Federation, including Primorye. And then the edge took 21 place and was in the last group "E". The current rating is a full-scale approbation, in which almost all regions of the Russian Federation took part. Including the Amur Region, the Kamchatka and Khabarovsk Territories, the Sakhalin, Magadan Regions, the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia). From the Far East, only the Jewish Autonomous Region and Chukotka remained invaluable. "Due to the low number and correspondingly small sample", - explained in the ASI.
Among the Far Eastern neighbors, Kamchatka krai showed itself best of all; it occupied the 32 line of the rating, hitting the third final group (5 groups were allocated in total). Kamchatka showed particularly strong positions in terms of the “small business support” indicator (the best indicators are Group A). It evaluated the level of development of small business, the quality of organizational, infrastructure and information support, the effectiveness of non-financial and financial support of small business.
No less strong support is provided to entrepreneurs in the Republic of Sakha - also the third final group, on the support of entrepreneurs - group A". Experience of the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) was included in the collection of 50 best practices, which was created on the basis of the rating.
In second place (on the 48 line of the rating) - Primorye. The region was in the third final group. "Lowers" the region is just a low level of support for entrepreneurs - the "D".
Worse indicators and Sakhalin, Magadan region and the Khabarovsk Territory (Fourth final group). So, on the island, things are fine with the regulatory environment (the effectiveness of registration procedures, issuing construction permits, licenses, property registration, etc.) and institutions for business (institutions that provide business security, administrative pressure on business, business support mechanisms, etc. .) - group "B", but there is practically no infrastructure (quality and accessibility, cadastral registration, financial support, quality and availability of labor) - the latest group "E". In the Magadan region, on the contrary, there are relatively developed institutions and support for entrepreneurship (group “B”), but the high costs of the regulatory environment are “E”. In the Khabarovsk Territory - the lowest indicator in support of entrepreneurs ("E"), a regulated environment and an undeveloped infrastructure - "D".