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"A good spoon for dinner"
Kirill Tsarev - about why preferential leasing is good in conditions of reduced demand
And about. Director General of Sberbank Leasing CJSC, President of the United Leasing Association (OLA) Kirill Tsarev told EastRusssia about fluctuations in the leasing market, the possibilities of the domestic auto industry in the Far East and the interest in fishing vessels.- Kirill Aleksandrovich, in Russia in 2014, the new leasing agreements were concluded for 1 trillion rubles, which is almost a quarter less than the level of the previous year and approached the indicators of four years ago. According to analysts of the rating agency RAEX, The fall of the leasing market in 2015 will reach 10%, and the total amount of contracts will decrease to 540 billion rubles. At the same time, the bankruptcy of companies that are lessees may begin. Do you think that in the current economic situation, leasing as an industry remains a place in our country?
- Of course, it remains. I would probably divide the question of these figures into two concepts: new contracts that show the rate of investment flow, including through leasing, and the current leasing portfolio. The portfolios of leasing companies are not decreasing - they are increasing even with the reduction in the level of business growth. By itself, the volume and total aggregate of accumulated, but not yet redeemed, investments also increased. However, they will decline if the growth rate of new investments is low for a long time (2-3 of the year).
Leasing as one of the tools that is associated, on the one hand, with investments, and on the other hand with the purchase of new equipment, is traditionally very sensitive to economic fluctuations. When there is a slowdown in the economy, there is a drop in the leasing business. So, the market for the sale of cars was drowned - naturally, along with it went down and leasing cars. At the same time, I can not say that leasing has the same, synchronous decline with the market. For example, now a whole package of subsidy programs for car sales has been developed: yes, leasing in this situation will also decrease, but less than total sales.
In short, fluctuations in the leasing market are a completely normal process. As in life, everything here consists of different cycles. Today, the volume of investments and business is going down, but we still have current clients with whom we have to work. I see no reason for great alarm.
- The fall of the leasing market for 10% predicted for this year is also a normal milestone?
- In 2009, the leasing market in terms of the volume of new business generally fell by 75%. I can not say whether the normal milestone in 10% for this year. But I want to note that the fall of last year, the market felt not so much. Experts have a much more dramatic mood because of 2015’s expectations of the year, which are built on numbers and, not least, on psychology: any future crisis that you potentially enter is much worse than any experience. Nevertheless, even now, in May, we can say that the situation is not developing as critically as many had predicted at the beginning of the year. It develops better than in 2009, at least for the leasing industry. The only question is whether this dynamics fades out or will continue. The answer to this question is made up of a number of factors: the price of oil, the dependence of the ruble on the dollar, the situation in Ukraine, sanctions. In my opinion, if nothing new, bad happens, then the overall situation on the leasing market will be stable.
- In which sectors should we expect a fall in leasing transactions?
- I would divide leasing into two components - retail, designed for small and medium-sized businesses (the acquisition of cars and trucks, standard equipment, etc.), and associated with large orders, including such specific industries as aircraft manufacturing, shipbuilding , railway construction, equipment market. Retail leasing, which shows constant growth from year to year, is most susceptible to large-scale economic fluctuations. Due to the current changes, it will certainly decrease to some extent (to what extent it’s not completely clear), but as soon as the recovery begins, it will automatically, like the float of the economy, begin to grow.
If we talk about the segments of leasing in aviation or engineering, then the current situation in the country is imposed cyclicity of the industries themselves. In a number of cases, there are long orders, which are still financed, because advances have already been paid. Aircraft are contracted, for example, two to three years before delivery, so part of the projects for them will be implemented regardless of the external situation. At the same time, there is a high probability in these segments that there will be no new projects in the near future, and how this will affect the market will be visible only after two or three years.
The segment of the railway transport has been under serious pressure for already two years, and for him the crisis may be some turning point to recovery. On the one hand, due to the devaluation of the ruble, the prospects for exporters increased, including coal, metal, etc., on the other hand, over the past few years we have seen a fall in the price of the car, and given the current inflation rate, and again Of the cost of metal, this fall should be definitely stopped - for such money this car can not be built. Therefore, I think that 2015 year in many ways for this direction will be decisive. By the way, until now in this niche market worked only from 5 to 10 leasing companies. But the volumes of this segment of leasing strongly affect the aggregate figures.
- Sberbank Leasing is a state-owned company. What is your advantage over private enterprises?
- Our advantages are not related to the option "state" or "non-state". We are primarily a subsidiary of Sberbank, and this is already a certain degree of responsibility to the client. The company always tries to build long-term relations with the client and looks at those projects that are balanced from the position of appetite for risk and the income of the investor. Our task, on the one hand, is to invest, on the other hand, to maintain a quality portfolio. If you are committed to long-term development, then welcome, if you have only impulsive ideas - let's buy something urgently somewhere, and after three months resell it - it's not for us. Step-by-step, step-by-step in the implementation of tasks - this is our main advantage. For 21 year of work we have accumulated a lot of experience in implementing leasing projects in almost all industries. We have a good expertise, and we understand how to build this work.
- Since 1 April in Russia, launched a program of preferential car loans and leasing. Should we expect a revival in the domestic car sales market?
- Of course. We take part in such programs in the field of acquiring wagons, aircraft, agricultural machinery and see their effectiveness. Similar programs are needed at a time when demand is declining and the cost of investment is increasing. Good, as they say, a spoon for dinner. The state should support those areas that require an additional impulse of development. We believe that this program will be reflected, and this year the budget allocated for it will be fully selected by the companies. As President of OLA, I see a great desire of companies involved in the implementation of cars to join this initiative, and this once again confirms that they evaluate it as potentially effective.
- What, in your opinion, will be more popular in Russia: the program of buying a car on credit or leasing? Not everyone is ready to return the car to the salon, for example, in three years, as in operating leasing.
- When I started working in leasing 16 years ago, the first 15-20 minutes of conversation with the client started with an explanation of what a lease is. And almost always one of the key issues was "who will own this property?". This manner of presentation of leasing companies ended in 2004-2006. Today almost all market participants know the word "leasing", almost every motor show has a representative of a particular leasing company.
If we are talking about corporate clients (I mean legal entities), they understand the advantages of leasing. With individuals, the situation is slightly more complicated for two reasons. First, a slightly different tax regime. And secondly, despite the fact that today citizens are much more knowledgeable than businessmen at the dawn of 2000, they do not have a deep understanding of the product. In this regard, I am sure, it is in the retail segment of car sales that the competition of leasing companies will be aggressive in the near future.
The question is not even whether credit or leasing will win (after all, credit is a more massive product and more universal), but whether leasing can occupy its niche in the retail sales segment - for today's leasing development in Russia it would be very OK. When the product itself for some clients, including individuals, will get accustomed (and we know that there will be people who are interested, someone just wants to try, etc.), this will signal the beginning of a possible era The heyday of leasing companies, as, indeed, happened in some European countries.
- What about the development of automobile leasing in the Far East? In Primorye (and not only), the main park is second-hand Japanese cars.
- It’s a used car park and it’s a used one, that sooner or later it needs to be updated ...
- You can again buy a second-hand "Japanese" or "Korean" ...
- If we compare the situation of today and eight years ago, in my opinion, there is still a penetration of new left-hand cars purchased in Russia.
- We are talking about the program of preferential car loans and leasing of domestic cars. And the residents of the Far Eastern Federal District will say: “Why do we need a domestic car for leasing, we'd rather buy a“ Japanese ”with mileage, but with a guarantee of quality, since cars madeinJapanIs a world quality mark ".
- 10 years ago in Primorye, in principle, there were no left-hand drive cars. In the region, there were practically no service stations even for AvtoVAZ domestic cars. Now there are new left-hand drive cars, including the same "Toyota". And over the years, many manufacturers have created the necessary infrastructure in Primorye: salons, service stations, warehouses for spare parts. Today, buying a new car, you can be sure of the quality of the service.
The market of the Far East, of course, is more competitive not from the standpoint of leasing or "not leasing", but from the point of view of the product itself. Anyway, there is a place for domestic cars. Moreover, the concept of "domestic car" has become wider: it includes cars produced in our country, and their line has changed greatly in recent years. In addition, even the Japanese market is affected by the ruble exchange rate: yes, the price of the car in the yen has remained the same, but the value of the yen in rubles is much higher. The cost for cars of Russian manufacturers did not increase in proportion to changes in the exchange rate of the ruble - that is, if it grew, it is not so noticeable. It turns out, the old "Japanese" has risen in price more strongly, than a new product of the Russian car industry. Plus, you have to purchase an additional set of subsidies. I am sure that today there is a very good chance to promote the domestic auto industry in the Far East.
- What are the directions of leasing in the Far East? Please tell us about major projects in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District.
- First of all, an important guideline is the development of various offers for Sberbank customers, which for us in a separate focus. In the Far East, we develop classic leasing lines: financing of small and medium businesses, corporate transactions.
We are very interested in the issue of fleet financing, incl. fishing. One of the niches that is poorly developed in Russia is the construction of fishing vessels using leasing financing. For example, we are implementing such a project in Murmansk. Fishing fleet in many ways requires updating. Accordingly, this is one of those leasing areas in which, I believe, the future.
The potential was, is and will be in the resource part. I mean the construction of facilities related to the raw material component, the extraction of resources. We have equipment - for example, earthmoving, dump trucks, excavators, - transferred to federal companies, whose facilities are located in the Far East. I can not name them because of trade secrets, but many of them are located in the territory of Yakutia, the Amur Region, the Magadan Region, the Khabarovsk Territory and other regions of the Far Eastern Federal District.
- Is competition between the leasing companies felt in the Far East? Is it difficult for regional companies to compete with federal companies?
- Competition is felt, as in any other region. Rivalry with local companies arises, first of all, in the segment of small and medium business, where relatively small amounts of transactions and regional players also offer the client a competitive service.
As for large projects, as a rule, federal companies are more competitive here. In general, without competition anywhere - it helps us build and live.
- The development of advanced development areas (TOP) and large investment projects in the Far East contributes to the development of leasing?
- Of course. Any arrival of investors and the creation of something new inevitably entails the creation of jobs and the inflow of even greater investments. If the investment idea is correctly structured, then it is capable, as a locomotive, to create, generate and infrastructure, and new business ideas, and new investments. The question is the correct definition of these locomotives and the ability to create such a combination on the part of the region, entrepreneurs, investors.
- How do you see the future of leasing in five years, including in the Far East?
- I see him more professional, more segmented. What does it mean? It is likely that we will see a separate specialization of companies engaged in retail leasing and represented evenly throughout Russia. Perhaps there will be companies that specialize only in leasing in areas such as air, railway or equipment: machine-tool construction, milling machines, etc. They will assess the risk differently because they will know how to pick up the equipment and where to give it. Of course, we also know this, but since we do not deal exclusively with this competence, our potential assessment will be different. And they will be ready to enter into transactions with a different risk appetite, for which they will receive an additional premium, which the client pays. Of course, in these areas there will be large companies, such as Sberbank Leasing, VTB Leasing, VEB-leasing, GTLK and others.
I believe that there will be regional companies that will know the local specifics and will also take on appropriate risks.
I'm sure more will be operational leasing. And it seems to me that leasing will include more value added services and products for the client. In the same segment of the purchase of vehicles, you can enable the registration of the machine, the replacement of wheels, the passage of vehicle inspection. Operational leasing will also develop in the Far East. I believe that the Japanese equipment (second-hand machines and so on) will nevertheless be slowly but surely replaced by domestic products, whose quality has increased immeasurably in recent years. In general, we need to build a civilized market for secondary equipment in Russia. Then the question of what is better: buy a four-year-old Kamatsu excavator in Japan in yen or on-site from a leasing company or from a dealer — the same excavator previously used in the Russian Federation will disappear by itself. And the price may be lower than in Japan.
In addition, for the Far East, the fleet is an important point. And for the regions, and for us, this is perhaps a giant growth point. We have a very old fishing fleet. There is the potential of shipyards and the population that consumes fish, often non-Russian. These three facts should be combined together and say, let's build the Russian fleet, increase the internal processing of fish and put the Russian product on the Russian shelves. We are ready to participate in this significant project for the country.