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What trends are dangerous in the Far East?

Pavel Minakir

Director of the Institute of Economic Research of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences

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Pavel Minakir, Director of the Institute for Economic Research of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences:

- Problems with migration have always existed in the Far East. Until 1991, people came here and within a year, and out of 10 people 9 left, and remained alone. Today the situation is different - almost no one comes, because there is no need to go, but they continue to leave.

In recent years, negative migration from the region has decreased. At the beginning of the 1990, there was a volley outflow, but now the situation has stabilized. Young people leave from everywhere, and come to the millionaires, it happens all over the world. In this there is nothing strange, it is impossible to change this situation and it is simply not necessary. From the fact that another power station or road will be built in the Far East, young people will not come here. These arguments are based on the desire to simplify the situation, describing it in accessible terms and examples. But, for example, in Khabarovsk, the price per square meter is almost like St. Petersburg, and in Birobidzhan it is two times lower. In the village of Lazo, Primorsky Krai, you can buy five apartments, selling one in Khabarovsk. Therefore, such reasoning makes sense only when they are taken out of context.

Or one more term - stagnation. The curve from 1990 to 2014 production in the Far East will be lower than the average for Russia. Another curve that shows how the pace varies every year. It turns out that in the Far East for three years the pace is higher, then three years go to a decline. And so constantly. This is due to the fact that in the region the extractive industry mainly operates, and at the same time almost entirely to the foreign market. Its work depends on two things: first, how reserves change, and secondly, how demand varies in foreign markets, and it is cyclical. In the Far East, it is such an economy, it has its own structure and its own growth characteristics. In other regions, other patterns.

What trends are dangerous in the Far East? I do not see specific dangers, there are problems, but they are not exclusively Far Eastern and not quite economic. From this point of view, it would be utopian to draw up some programs that would solve all issues. The economy is distributed unevenly in the Far East: it is centered around cities, and the north, for example, is generally empty and will always remain so.

What is meant by the Far East? 36% of the territory of Russia can not be turned into an ideal economic zone, it's like talking about the accelerated development of Alaska - it is not necessary and useless. Therefore, I refer this to the bureaucratic standard: the title of the Father of the nation is transformed in the Father's consciousness of the territory, and this is not the same thing. Moreover, the responsibility for the economy to function normally does not mean that you build it as you see fit. A thoughtless large-scale imposition of good wishes on a differentiated territory will not be of use. This is evident, since the 1987 programs are constantly being developed for the development of the Far East: they are dated to 1987, 1996, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2013, 2014 for years. Maybe we should stop? The economy develops independently of these programs, at best they do not interfere.

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I can not say that they are absolutely meaningless, but we must understand what this meaning is. There are special solutions that can not be realized otherwise, as in the form of a program. For example, to build a pipeline across half of Siberia and the entire Far East (and this is a program), you need to know the extent: for some time the program is good, but when you start to inflate it to the scale of a universal shell, it becomes harmful. In addition, through programs can build schools or maternity homes in villages, which local efforts can not be done.

There are few ways to reduce the outflow of the population. After all, this is not just a faceless mass. It consists of two extremes - older people who have outlived their lives here and are moving to more comfortable regions, and young people who go to pursue careers, expected incomes and a more concentrated and diverse environment. And this does not change - Khabarovsk cannot be turned into a multi-million metropolis and a zone where housing prices are low and the climate is good. But you need to understand that some core of people remain in the Far East - it means that not everything is so bad here. Not a single population moves completely from one place to another, as it happens in humans.

And how can you attract people? On Sakhalin began to develop offshore fields. People came there because there was demand and money. There appeared infrastructure, huge factories, and these are not yesterday's fishermen, but highly qualified specialists. Or in Khabarovsk began the reconstruction of the refinery, it makes including the Turks. It's all about demand.

Read the full interview.