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What trends are dangerous in the Far East?
Pavel MinakirDirector of the Institute of Economic Research of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences
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- Problems with migration have always existed in the Far East. Until 1991, people came here and within a year, and out of 10 people 9 left, and remained alone. Today the situation is different - almost no one comes, because there is no need to go, but they continue to leave.
Or one more term - stagnation. The curve from 1990 to 2014 production in the Far East will be lower than the average for Russia. Another curve that shows how the pace varies every year. It turns out that in the Far East for three years the pace is higher, then three years go to a decline. And so constantly. This is due to the fact that in the region the extractive industry mainly operates, and at the same time almost entirely to the foreign market. Its work depends on two things: first, how reserves change, and secondly, how demand varies in foreign markets, and it is cyclical. In the Far East, it is such an economy, it has its own structure and its own growth characteristics. In other regions, other patterns.
What is meant by the Far East? 36% of the territory of Russia can not be turned into an ideal economic zone, it's like talking about the accelerated development of Alaska - it is not necessary and useless. Therefore, I refer this to the bureaucratic standard: the title of the Father of the nation is transformed in the Father's consciousness of the territory, and this is not the same thing. Moreover, the responsibility for the economy to function normally does not mean that you build it as you see fit. A thoughtless large-scale imposition of good wishes on a differentiated territory will not be of use. This is evident, since the 1987 programs are constantly being developed for the development of the Far East: they are dated to 1987, 1996, 2001, 2002, 2007, 2013, 2014 for years. Maybe we should stop? The economy develops independently of these programs, at best they do not interfere.
I can not say that they are absolutely meaningless, but we must understand what this meaning is. There are special solutions that can not be realized otherwise, as in the form of a program. For example, to build a pipeline across half of Siberia and the entire Far East (and this is a program), you need to know the extent: for some time the program is good, but when you start to inflate it to the scale of a universal shell, it becomes harmful. In addition, through programs can build schools or maternity homes in villages, which local efforts can not be done.
And how can you attract people? On Sakhalin began to develop offshore fields. People came there because there was demand and money. There appeared infrastructure, huge factories, and these are not yesterday's fishermen, but highly qualified specialists. Or in Khabarovsk began the reconstruction of the refinery, it makes including the Turks. It's all about demand.