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Petr Khanas: it is possible to build successful election campaigns on the agenda of the development of the Far East
Questions about the impact on the behavior of the Far Eastern electorate in the framework of the past elections of the federal policy for the development of the Far East, as well as the reasons for the various successes of the election campaigns in the Far East, correspondent EastRussia asked Petru Hanas, the director of the Far Eastern Consulting Center, the professor of the Russian Academy of Science and Technology.
- Pyotr Dmitrievich, following the results of the last elections - how do you assess Far Eastern electoral behavior? What factors work, what do not?
- In addition to traditional factors - such as, for example, political culture - the factor of regional politics also strongly influences. That is, the policy of local authorities, which is by no means synchronous with the federal policy for the development of the Far East. And it is not synchronous, in turn, because it is personified and directly connected with the weight of the leader, which is delaying everything on itself, as well as the expectations that it generates. Only the personality of the governor in combination with effective political technologies can result in an increase in the rating and improvement of party ratings, as well as an overall improvement in the region.
By the way, another factor favorably affects the Far East - seasonality. We have well expressed so-called "summer" moods: in regions there is low or even extremely low social tension. In such conditions, the head of the region and its political technologists need only to support the mood of the local population, to form new positive expectations.
- The greatest turnout was in the Kamchatka Territory, the Sakhalin Region and in Yakutia?
- Yes, it is in these regions. It is natural - they are headed by strong people, and some of them are managed by strong teams in general. Of course, political technologies also play a role here. The conclusion that is made up of these two factors that determine the behavior of the Far Eastern electorate is that in the Russian subjects the general outline of the election campaign is being created today not only by the federal agenda, but also by the regional one. And this, in the framework of which, the leader not only forms positive expectations for the electorate, but offers a clear and precise “message” that corresponds to the expectations that he forms.
- And what is the reason for the unusual behavior of the electorates of certain Far Eastern regions that took place within the framework of the last elections?
- Let's say about those regions where the electoral company of United Russia was a failure or did not bring the expected results. The thing is that in these regions the electorate, for the most part, is dominated by a retrospective-egocentric type of behavior. This type of behavior is rational to a certain extent. And in this case, he estimates not what is simply done on the territory, but what has in some way directly affected people. The smallest level of support for United Russia this year was in the Khabarovsk Territory, and not, as before, in Primorye. also had a general federal message - "United Russia - Party of the President."
- How do you think, at the level of Far Eastern voters, the federal policy towards the Far East?
- The federal policy implemented by the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia and the Plenipotentiary of the President of Russia in the Far Eastern Federal District, Yuri Trutnev, is really aimed at creating mechanisms for advance development in the macroregion. But it should be clearly understood that these mechanisms - TORs, Free ports - are only conditions, they create opportunities for pawning certain ideas, decisions, projects in the Far East. Tangible effects for the population these tools have not yet yielded. For this reason, by the way, the population of the Far East is now somewhat skeptical about the Free Port and the TORs. However, this skepticism is often associated with the lack of synchronization of federal activity with the activities of local authorities. Here in the understanding of the population of the Far East, and there are difficulties - in some regions, local authorities are engaged only in their own PR, and nothing more.
- How often does the “future” agenda replace the real picture at the regional level?
- Such a phenomenon takes place. But there is an exception - this phenomenon, for example, is not typical for the Kamchatka Territory, headed by V.I. Ilyukhin. Since this region in fact demonstrates good development indicators due to the effective multidisciplinary local Kamchatka topping, in particular its promotion, which makes a great contribution to the rebranding of the region, and the activities of the governor. After all, look - thanks to the "Kamchatka" TOR, the tourist potential of the region was so widely believed that this summer its authorities had to face the inability of the old Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky airport to accept the flow of tourists pouring into Kamchatka. That is, the TOP "Kamchatka" has a real result - interest in rest in Kamchatka. Another thing is that he was faced with the lack of conditions necessary for his effects - mainly a good hotel complex and an appropriate level of logistics infrastructure.
- And yet - is it possible to build an election campaign on theses on TOR, Free Ports, etc.?
- I can say for sure on the basis of several election campaigns, even at the municipal level, that thanks to the new mechanisms of the Minsk region, the electorate can create positive expectations, and as a result - to win an election campaign with the greatest result. A striking example of this is last year's election campaign in the framework of the election of the head of the Slavyanka-urban settlement in the Khasansky district of Primorsky Krai, located within the territory of the Free Port of Vladivostok. Within the framework of this campaign, the positive expectations of the local electorate from the functioning of the Free Port of Vladivostok and the activities of those of its residents who set it up on the territory of Slavyanka were purposefully formed.