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Risks of export and export of risks

The project of GOK "Inaglinsky" may be threatened by the global conjuncture of prices for raw materials

Inaglinsky GOK, commissioned just over a week ago, produced the first batches of coal concentrate. To the delight of the initiator of the project - LLC “UK“ Kolmar ”, as well as the state, at the expense of which the substation was built, which feeds the mine today.

Risks of export and export of risks
Special project Coal of the East of Russia
A year ago Kolmar with the Inaglinsky GOK project became one of those first lucky winners who passed the first round of selection of the Ministry of Regional Development for getting state support for the construction of infrastructure facilities. As a result, the company received a subsidy in the amount of 560 million rubles for the construction of the 110 kV substation of GOK "Inaglinsky" with taps of HVL 110 kV.

“In any industry, projects related to the extraction of minerals in capital intensity are in the first place. No exception to that are the two major projects that Colmar is implementing today in the territory of South Yakutia. At the same time, the world market is now experiencing a serious decline in commodity prices, including the price of coal, which, since 2012, has managed to fall about 4 times. Thus, state support for the infrastructure of the Inaglinsky GOK was of great importance for the company and was very timely. An important point is that when the company filed an application for state support, the financial model of the project went “negative” and became positive only because of its provision, ”said Arkady Ostrovsky, Deputy Financial Director of Kolmar Management Company.

According to him, the project used a specific PPP model - the so-called quasi-PPP. It provides for the use of an irrevocable subsidy mechanism for the construction of a power transmission line within the Inaglinsky GOK project. Within the framework of this mechanism, Colmar acted as an investor, and the state, represented by the Ministry of the Russian Federation for the Development of the Far East, as a partner. The interaction between the company and the department was documented in the following way: two agreements were signed. According to the first investment agreement, Kolmar must complete the construction and ensure the proper capacity of the GOK, extracting a certain amount of coal annually. According to the second agreement, the state allocates "Kolmar" subsidies for the obligation to build an infrastructure facility - power transmission lines - and monitor the construction process. Now, upon completion of construction, this power line is in joint with the state of property "Kolmara".

In this context Arkady Ostrovsky noted that the provision of support from the state to the project had its own peculiarities and complexities. For example, there was such a requirement of the state as full compliance with all the treasury control over the expenditure of the subsidy, in particular, stipulating that neither Colmar nor its contractors nor their subcontractors have the right to issue an advance without opening an account with the Federal Treasury .

"Inaglinsky GOK is a project entirely beneficial for the state. This is fully proved by the company's budgetary efficiency: all expenses from the state are covered by tax revenues from the project in dozens of times. At the same time, the budgetary effect of GOK's work during the next 7-8 years will be about 45 billion rubles, "Arkady Ostrovsky stated.

Receiving financial support cannot but distinguish Colmar from its competitors in the Russian coal industry, who are no less than those who are now counting on receiving state support for their initiatives, while the possibilities of providing it in Russia are currently very limited. And even more, the receipt of infrastructural support from the state by Kolmar in the implementation of the project of the Inaglinsky GOK today says that the federal center has great prospects and hopes for this project.

"The significance of state support for Inaglinsky GOK is undoubtedly great. Since without her "Colmar" would hardly have been able to build it. And on the whole, it was the right thing on the part of the state to support this project, "said Yuri Krupnov, chairman of the Supervisory Board of the nonprofit organization Institute for Demography, Migration and Regional Development.

"The request for state support for the present time is a perfectly normal practice," says Vasily Koltashov, Head of the Center for Economic Studies of the Institute of Globalization and Social Movements. - As the majority of theoretically promising Russian projects, and in particular Inaglinsky GOK, today have virtually no opportunity to be properly realized, and then develop on the market without government intervention. Or for the reason that cheap credit is not available to their initiators. Or because investors have withdrawn almost all of their capital in offshore. "

At the same time, according to Mr. Koltashov, the profitability of Inaglinsky GOK today is very probabilistic. So, already after 5 months after the launch of the enterprise, its prospects may not look as rosy as it is now. The reason is the negative dynamics of raw material prices observed in world markets.



"The orientation of" Kolmar "on the Japanese market is very risky. Because Japan today is not a country that has emerged from the crisis with a permanently depressed economy, with a strong devaluation of the national currency, with a negative central bank rate. That is, in general - with a difficult economic situation. Therefore, it is possible that there will come a time when Japan will sharply reduce its demand for Russian raw materials, including coal. For Inaglinsky GOK, this - the risk of losing the market, "- commented Vasily Koltashov.

According to experts, the development of domestic demand for coal could neutralize such a negative scenario. However, according to experts interviewed by EastRussia, at present it is impossible to rely on the domestic market - due to the unsynchronized development of the same South Yakutsk industrial region, there will not be sufficient demand for coal here in the foreseeable future.

"There is a serious problem that there is no single system for the production of added value in South Yakutia today," Yury Krupnov, chairman of the Supervisory Board of the nonprofit organization Institute of Demography, Migration and Regional Development, told EastRussia. - Since the investments that are currently invested in the production of coal concentrate, it is, in fact, an investment in the development of exports. Whereas according to all plans, including the Soviet plans for the development of the South Yakut territorial-industrial complex, this concentrate should satisfy the needs of local metallurgy, shipbuilding and other industries. The reason for the absence in the territory of South Yakutia of a single system of processing complex is that the state currently does not have a strategic plan for its development for the next 20-30 years. Such a one that would provide for the creation of a single industrial complex, interconnected with one another, capable of bringing a great profit to the state. "

At the same time, according to the experts interviewed, Inaglinsky will even have access to the state for new forms of support, even under negative scenarios: the status of one of the first "success stories" of the mechanism of state infrastructure support promoted by the Russian Ministry for Development - in many ways means Close attention and patronage from the authorities. After all, the KPI project - its power, budgetary effects - are declared publicly, and are promises not only of the investor, but also of the relevant officials responsible for the development of the Far East. So, the responsibility for their timely achievement is of a fundamental nature.

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Investment project Inaglinsky Mining and Processing Plant (Inaglinsky GOK) in 2015 ranked first in the rating of investment projects in the Far Eastern Federal District. The project was assigned 0,8 points from 1 possible. The investor of the project is Kolmar LLC (a joint asset of LoneState Assets Ltd, Gunvor, Volga Group). The project implemented in the territory of South Yakutia includes the Inaglinskaya Mine and the Inaglinskaya Mining and Processing Plant with an annual coal production and processing volume of 3 million tons; Production of coke concentrate - up to 2,5 million tons / year. The balance reserves of Inaglinsky GOK amount to 670 million tons. The total investment in the project is about 23 billion rubles. State investments in the construction of infrastructure - substation 110 kV GOK "Inaglinsky" with taps of HVL 110 kV - amounted to 560 million rubles. The Republic of Yakutia, in turn, built an 12-kilometer railway line from the Inaglinsky GOK to the Chulbas station with a further exit to the BAM and the Trans-Siberian Railway. It consists of more than 5 km of railways, three middle class bridges, 5 culverts, an overpass under the federal motorway M-56 "Lena", four temporary culverts.

Group of companies LLC "Management Company" Colmar "- coal mining enterprises, which employ more than 1 400 people. The companies of the group have licenses for the development of the sections of the Chulmakansky and Denisovskoye coal deposits in South Yakutia. The balance reserves of the sites of enterprises are over 1 billion tons of coking coal. In the plans of MC "Kolmar" - increase in the production of coking coal to 12 million tons to 2020 year.