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Gigawatts for replacement
JSC "RAO Energy Systems of the East" began designing three new power facilities for Khabarovsk, Vladivostok and Artem. It is expected that the CHP will be put into operation in 2018-2022 years
Let's note, with 2015 for 2017 year will be introduced five more generating facilities in Sovetskaya Gavan, Blagoveshchensk, Yakutsk, Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk and Vladivostok. Power engineering specialists assure that new capacities for the already energy-surplus region will not be superfluous, since most of the equipment at the existing stations is morally and physically obsolete. Experts with this statement agree and remind that not only economic considerations but also the security of the entire energy system are important in the Far East.
At the end of April, RAO Energy Systems of the East entered into three contracts with TEK Mosenergo for the design of new generating facilities, the total cost of design work is over 675 million rubles. We are talking about the Khabarovsk CHP-4, a new CHP in the coastal city of Artyom and combined-cycle plants (CCGT) at the Vladivostok CHP-2. Their total electricity production will be more than 1,4 GW, heat - over 1,9 thousand Gcal / h.
Development of project documentation, including a full cycle of examinations and approvals, must be completed within 13 months. The installed electric capacity of the Khabarovsk CHPP-4 will be 340 MW, thermal - no less than 1260 Gcal / h. Moreover, the designer will have to consider two options for the configuration of the station - to work on coal and natural gas. Each of the options will consist of two queues. The construction of combined-cycle plants (CCGT) at the Vladivostok CHPP-2 implies a partial withdrawal of the existing facilities and the modernization of part of the station. The electric power of the new equipment will be at least 400 MW, thermal - not less than 290 Gcal / h.
Finally, the new coal-fired CHP plant in Artem will have an electrical capacity of 670 MW, with the possibility of expanding it to 800 MW. Thermal power will be about 394 Gcal / h. The power plant has four power units, the construction of which is planned in three stages. As explained in the press service of RAO Energy Systems of the East, these facilities are included in the Program for the future development of the energy sector of the Far East to 2025. “Now we are working on our plans in relation to the forecast balance of consumption in the regions and have just recently begun to design. Taking into account the promising power balances, commissioning stations will be required in 2018-2022 years, ”the company said.
Sources of financing for construction projects have not yet been determined, but, according to the RAO ES of the East, the energy sector is actively working on this issue. "First, the federal ministries are now considering our proposals to refinance the accounts payable of RAO ES East and introduce long-term tariff regulation. If they are accepted, this will help create the necessary cash flow. In addition, for example, for steam and gas installations at Vladivostok HPP-2, we are actively working with Chinese partners - Dongfang Electric. They can help with the attraction of related financing provided that equipment is supplied and general contracting services are provided. There are also offers from other Chinese, Japanese and Korean companies, "the company's representatives explain.
By the way, in late April, said Alexei Kaplun, Deputy Director General of RAO ES of the East for Strategy and Investments. According to him, with 85-90% of financing from the total cost of the project is about $ 500 million, the remaining 10-15% is the own or borrowed funds of the Russian company.
Let's add that by the time of 2016, the power holding company RusHydro, which owns the shares of RAO ES of the East, is to complete the construction of four new generating facilities for the Far East. This is a CHP plant in Sovetskaya Gavan, which will replace the old May GRES, the first stage of the Yakutsk SDPP-2 - to replace the obsolete Yakutsk SDPP, the second phase of the only Blagoveshchenskaya CHPP in the city and the new Sakhalin HPP-2 (1). Funds for these construction projects were allocated by the Russian government in 2012, the actual development began in the spring of 2014.
The main fuel of most new energy facilities will be coal. Note that today gas is a more profitable fuel in relation to coal, the only exception is the gas from the Sakhalin-1 project, which is supplied to the Khabarovsk Territory as part of a production sharing agreement with the project operator, Exxon Neftegas Ltd. The gas supply contract for the region was concluded in dollars, and due to the growth of the exchange rate, the selling price for Khabarovskkraygaz OJSC (Gazprom’s subsidiary) and Far Eastern Generating Company OJSC (DGK, subsidiary of RAO ES of the East) ) almost doubled at the end of last year. According to Gazprom, the average gas selling price for the year 2014 in Russia was 3673,8 rubles. for 1 thousand cubic meters (or $ 78,2, given the weighted average exchange rate of 46,96 rubles for 2014 a year), a year earlier - 3363,9 rubles. or $ 106,7. For European non-European countries - $ 345,4 per 1 thousand cubic meters last year, $ 382,6 in 2013 year. According to the Ministry of Energy, export prices for thermal coal from Russia fell to $ 72,8 per tonne from $ 85 a year earlier. Domestic grew over the year by 12 rubles, to 1524 rubles, while cost increases by 45 rubles, to 1328 rubles.
As confirmed in the "ES of the East", a significant increase in gas prices occurred only in the Khabarovsk Territory. The price of gas in the Primorsky Territory is regulated by the FST and in the first half of the year 2015 will not increase. "With the consortium for the Sakhalin-1 project, negotiations were held with the participation of the Khabarovsk Krai Government and the Ministry of Energy of Russia, which resulted in a revision of the gas price formula, which allowed it to be somewhat lowered (Exxon introduced a reduction factor for gas supplies of 30%.) . If we talk about the price of gas in the long term, then, as noted in "RAO ES of the East", the Energy Strategy of Russia provides for an equalization of prices of external and internal markets. This should ensure the profitability of development of deposits and stimulate energy saving in all sectors. According to the forecast of the Ministry of Energy, the yield on equal profitability can occur during the period of 2025-2027 years ", believe in the" Energy Systems of the East ".
According to energy, the use of coal as fuel is more profitable not only in the future, but now. “However, it should be said that not everything in the energy sector is measured in money. For example, the transfer to Vladivostok CHPP-2 gas was due solely to environmental factors. The same can be said about the current and future gasification of the CHP plant in Khabarovsk, ”said representatives of the holding.
At the same time, the main coal consumed by generation in the Far Eastern Federal District is local. At the Primorsky, Khabarovsk Territory and Amur Region power plants, less than 2% of this fuel is imported from outside. The rest is supplied by local producers, the largest of which are OAO Primorskugol, OJSC Urgalugol, OAO Russian Coal and OAO HC Yakutugol. This ratio is due, first of all, to high fuel transportation costs from other regions of the Russian Federation. The price of imported coal, taking into account transportation, is higher than that of the local. "However, it should be noted that recently there has been a tendency to increase prices for local coal, which levels this difference. If the coal mining companies of the DFO continue to pursue such a policy, we do not rule out a possible significant increase in deliveries of long-range coal, "the RAO ES of the East said.
The generators sparked with ideas
The Far East, according to popular opinion, is a region with "excessive generation" - despite the fact that energy tariffs remain high here. But if we divide the total output into the cost of production and transportation of energy, it turns out that the cost of a kilowatt-hour in the region really should be much higher than the average Russian - otherwise the generation will not pay off. "At the present time, in addition to heat, light and transit services, Far Eastern companies, with the exception of hydroelectric plants, are producing another very important type of product called" losses "", says Dmitriy Selyutin, First Deputy General Director of Far Eastern Energy Management Company (DVEUK) . The cost of generation is higher than the tariff, because the Far East is not Central Russia and not even the Urals. The distances between cities are calculated not by tens and hundreds, but by thousands of kilometers.
Moreover, about 80% of mythical "surpluses" of electricity are generated by obsolete, worn out and economically unprofitable power plants that are already due to be decommissioned in the near future. In RAO ES of the East (daughter of the RusHydro holding company), it was estimated that about 2,7 GW of new ones would be needed to replace these capacities. And in order to ensure a stable and risk-free operation of the power grid, 2025 GW is needed for 4,1.
And here the question arises with the financing of construction projects, because the tariff can cover only a small part of the required investments. Part of the costs can be covered by loans, but loans are given only for payback projects. "Unfortunately, while in the Far East, due to the peculiarities of the region, there are not so many such projects," noted Alexey Kaplun, Deputy General Director for Strategy and Investments, OAO RAO Energy Systems of the East, in 2014. In his opinion, only the introduction of long-term tariffs will attract the necessary funds for a radical modernization of the energy system of the Far Eastern Federal District.
Kaplun also spoke about the possibility of exporting energy to North Korea in March this year. "A preliminary analysis of the existing balance of power and electricity in Primorye gives us grounds to talk about the prospects of export. According to our preliminary estimates, at the first stage, in order to satisfy the current energy consumption of the Rason economic zone, it will be sufficient to build additional transmission lines of 110 kV to the Russian city of Khasan and the border with the DPRK. The development of the project will require the further construction of high-voltage power lines and participation in the export of promising energy facilities, the construction of which is envisaged by the program of long-term development of the Far Eastern energy industry up to the year of the 2025, developed by the holding, "the company's press service quoted him.
We add that in 2013, after a large-scale flood, JSC RusHydro returned to the discussion of the project for the construction of new hydropower plants in the Amur basin, developed in 70-80-s of the last century. We are talking about Shilkin, Gilyuska, Nizhne-Zeya, Rusinovskaya, Selemzhinskaya. Nizhne-Niemanskaya, Dalnerechenskaya HPP. However, at present the issue is solved only for the construction of the Nizhne-Bureyskaya HPP. In May, RusHydro and the China Three Gorges Corporation (CTG) agreed to establish the joint venture. Construction of the station with design capacity of 320 MW is conducted from 2010 year. Funding for the 2014 year was 8,9 billion rubles.
Let's note, at the moment the electric power from Russia is exported only to China and Mongolia. According to the export operator, JSC "Eastern Energy Company", for 2014 year, exports to China amounted to 3,376 billion kWh (3,6% below 2013), to Mongolia - 390 million kWh (5,6% below 2013).
According to Olga Demina, Head of the Economy Sector of the Fuel and Energy Sector of the Economic Research Institute of the Far Eastern Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in the near future the Far East will remain a non-price zone, where the cost of energy is formed not by market laws, but by tariff regulation measures. “Firstly, the scale of electricity consumption is insignificant, and, moreover, it is dispersed throughout a large territory of the region. There is no possibility to create here competitive conditions for energy suppliers, and construction of a grid is highly expensive. By the 2016 year, FGC plans to connect two power districts of Yakutia to the united energy system of the East, but this will only slightly increase consumption. The current volume of electricity consumption in OES East is about 30 billion kWh, the connection of Yakut consumers will increase the volume by another 5 billion kWh, ”she explains.
The unification of the East energy system with the Unified Energy System of the country also does not play a significant role in changing the volumes of electricity consumption and reducing costs. To unite the power systems of the East and Siberia, the Federal Grid Company (FSK) is planning to build a DC link at 220 kV substation Mogocha in the Chita Region, which will allow transferring up to 200 MW of capacity from the IPS of the East. In FSK's plans, the construction of a similar DC insertion at the substation "Hani", which will increase the total power flow to 400 MW. The small volumes of transmitted power and long transmission distances cause the low economic efficiency of the interconnection of power systems. "In fact, the combination of the two power systems exists, but economically it is not very effective," agrees senior researcher of the Institute of Economics FEB RAS Alexander Ognev. "The connection of the northern and western regions of Yakutia to the IPS of the East will not lead to economic benefits, but it makes sense from the point of view of improving the reliability of power supply to Yakut consumers."
Experts agree with energy specialists that the construction of a new generation in the Far East is vitally important. "Only 8% of the equipment of our stations has a service life of less than 20 years. The rest is outdated not only physically but also morally, which is manifested in high specific fuel consumption per unit of electricity generation. CHP, whose replacement projects are currently being prepared in RAO ES of the East, are characterized by high equipment wear: at Khabarovsk CHPP-1 boiler equipment is worn out at 80%, turbine - by more than 85%; In Vladivostok - 60% and 85%, respectively, and at Artemovskaya TPP - 90% and 60%, "- says Olga Demina. "The stations must be closed and new equipment should be put up. If you take into account the average period of design work - a year and a half, then examination and approval, construction - three to four years minimum, then by 2020 year the resource of many thermal power plants will be fully developed, "confirms Alexander Ognev. At present, according to him, in the Far East there is really a large reserve of capacity, and new facilities will be "somewhat redundant". The installed capacity of Far Eastern generation today exceeds the peaks of the maximum loadings by at least a half times. But new construction projects are a necessary event for the energy system. In the eighties due to the collapse of the USSR in the energy sector, another investment cycle was missed. In the Far East, the construction of the Bureyskaya hydroelectric station was suspended, the launch of the first hydro-generator took place only in 2003 year, and the projected capacity of the hydroelectric power station was released only in 2009.
But both analysts consider it premature to talk about the construction of new hydropower stations in the Amur basin. "Now in the Amur River basin we have only one construction site - it is the Nizhne-Bureyskaya HPP, its commissioning is planned for 2017 year. This is still 320 MW. HPP will perform including flood control functions, work at the Bureyskaya runoff, being its counter-regulator and ensuring its production in the projected scale, "says Ognev. Today, the share of HPPs is about 35% of output in the unified energy system of the East. The rest is thermal power, 40% of which works on gas, 60% on coal. This is a fairly optimal structure of the fuel basket of power plants, "coal - was, is and remains the main fuel for our power plants." Olga Demina notes that in accordance with the "Scheme and program for the development of the Unified Energy System of Russia for 2014-2020 years" approved by the order of the Ministry of Energy of Russia from 01.08.2014 No. 495, which passes annual adjustments, in the IPS East in the future up to 2020, -Bureyskaya hydroelectric power station. In the regulatory documents that determine the development of the industry, options for the construction of new HPPs in the region are considered, but their implementation is likely after 2020. According to her, the bias towards hydropower is not an optimal solution. After all, the development of the hydroelectric power station entirely depends on hydrology, which presupposes the existence of a TPP to compensate for the shortage of electric power in low-water years, such as the past.
As for the ratio of coal and gas, the solid fuel is profitable in relation to the "blue", only if the relative price of gas is 1,8-2 times higher than the price of coal. Now they are comparable. In the Energy Strategy of Russia until 2035, the gas price is aligned on the domestic and foreign markets. Then coal generation will become profitable. Power plants are by far the largest consumer of coal, accounting for more than 45% of the coal produced in the region. In addition, local types of coal are project fuels for Far Eastern power plants, and they must be extracted while maintaining the generation structure. Basically, Far Eastern coal is low-calorie, it is not competitive in foreign markets, therefore, a reduction in coal consumption at power plants in the region will lead to a loss of market. In this case, it is necessary to address issues of social efficiency, since there are mono-specialized settlements where the population is employed in coal mines. According to the experts of the Institute of Economic Research of the Far East Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences, in the perspective fuel basket of the power plants of the IPS East, the share of gas will be about 41%, the share of coal will decrease to 57%, a slight increase in the share of oil fuel by 1% is expected.
In addition, in the use of gas fuel there are risks associated with the inability to reserve. "Gas from the pipe is taken immediately, we do not have gas storage facilities. If there are difficulties with gas supply, coal stations can manage their fuel, and gas will be in a critical situation. And therefore, the reserve from coal-fired power plants is a blessing both for the population and for the energy sector, "notes Ognev.
As for the projects of export-oriented power plants, both experts fully support this initiative. Preliminary political agreements on the export of electricity to China already exist, but there are no stations that would be oriented to external supplies. Now the PRC supplies electricity from the operating power plants of the IPS East, and this export is about 9% of the total consumption in the south of the Far East. In the consumption of Heilongjiang Province, Russian energy is about 3%. China is ready to bear the costs associated with the import of electricity from Russia. Our neighbors built a powerful DC insertion and power transmission lines from insertion into the inner regions. China offers loans, so that we can begin construction of export-oriented stations. If a political solution is reached, they will be built, "Ognev said.
The export price of Russian electricity to China is determined by prices in the wholesale market in the Far East and prices in the wholesale market in the Northeast provinces of China. Electricity prices on the wholesale market of the Far East are formed as a weighted average for all types of generation, although the cost of production at HPPs and TPPs is different. In addition, export supplies are the additional loading of our stations, which leads to a more optimal mode of fuel use, lower production costs. By and large, everyone wins, experts conclude.