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Gas gas strife

By 2018, Rosneft plans to build a LNG plant on Sakhalin

Gas gas strife

Will the resource base be sufficient for the two plants under construction - Far East LNG (Rosneft) and Vladivostok LNG (Gazprom)?

Gazprom believes that Rosneft conducts an incorrect policy in the Far East. At the end of April, the head of the Eastern Projects Department of Gazprom, Viktor Timoshilov, said that the project of the Far Eastern LNG plant does not justify itself. According to V. Timoshilov, "the resource base for the projects" Far East LNG "(" Rosneft ") and" Vladivostok LNG "(Gazprom) may not be enough." To develop gas in the region, sufficient infrastructure has already been created, and there is no need to spend money on the plant, which will cost at least $ 10-13 billion.

The Sakhalin-2 oil and gas complex (Gazprom) operates on Sakhalin, where the capacity of the LNG plant is 9,6 million tons per year. In addition, Gazprom is implementing the Vladivostok LNG project - the construction of a plant in the south of Primorsky Krai. The planned capacity of the plant is 15 million tons of LNG per year. The resource base for the plant will be gas from the Sakhalin (Sakhalin-3 project), Yakutsk and Irkutsk gas production centers. The project, according to the press service of Gazprom, "is of great importance for the development of the eastern part of the Unified Gas Supply System of Russia and for increasing Russian gas supplies to the markets of the Asia-Pacific region, including Japan." Mikhail Krasnov from the Gazprom Information Department told that "Vladivostok LNG is currently the only project for Gazprom to build an LNG plant in the Far Eastern Federal District."

In connection with such concentration of production and production in Sakhalin, Gazprom is confident in the redundancy of the Vladivostok LNG project. However, Rosneft and ExxonMobil (the company's partner in implementing the project) assessed the feasibility of the plant construction and are confident of its efficiency. As was informed in the press service of Rosneft, in 2014 the design work will be completed, engineering surveys will be carried out, project documentation will be developed and an environmental impact assessment will be carried out. The project, including infrastructure, will invest $ 15 billion.

"The planned capacity of the LNG plant, which will be located on Sakhalin Island, is 5 million tons per year with the prospect of expansion in the future. The resource base for the plant, which will be put into operation in 2018, will be Rosneft's reserves in the Far East, as well as gas reserves from Sakhalin, "the Rosneft press service reported.

Igor Sechin, the head of the company, pointed out the profitability of the project and its export orientation: "Licensed areas of Rosneft on the Russian shelf contain huge resources of hydrocarbons, a significant part of which is natural gas. Given that offshore fields are difficult to access and not connected to a single gas supply system, the most effective way to monetize these natural gas resources is to liquefy and sell them on export markets, "the Sechin website quotes Rosneft.

The project to build a second LNG plant on Sakhalin - the Far Eastern LNG - seems inappropriate from the point of view of state interests, said Igor Yushkov, an analyst at the National Energy Security Foundation (NESB).

“On the whole, a departure from the principle of gas export monopoly is a risky step, since different producers - exporters of Russian gas will compete with each other, which buyers will take advantage of. This will lead to lower prices, therefore, losses to the budget. Far Eastern LNG of Rosneft should become a direct competitor to the existing LNG plant of Sakhalin Energy, the main shareholder of which is Gazprom. It is significant that, in accordance with one of the options for locating the new LNG plant, it will be in close proximity to the Gazprom enterprise. From the point of view of the state, it would be beneficial to simply expand the capacity of the existing LNG plant. To do this, you need a minimum of costs and time, ”I. Yushkov is sure.

The problem is in the hardware competition between the two state companies. They seek to improve their own performance and maintain control over the projects. Rosneft wants to use the gas from the Sakhalin-1 project as a resource base for Far Eastern LNG.

“This project produces a little more than 8 billion cubic meters per year. The bulk of this gas is pumped back into the reservoir to maintain pressure. This is done to preserve the volume of oil production, which is the main export product of the project. A small part of the gas is supplied to the market of the Khabarovsk Territory, the expert noted. - But now Rosneft and ExxonMobil intend to send part of Sakhalin-1 gas to LNG production. The additional resource base of the new LNG project should be the shelf fields of Rosneft. But they will be developed only in the medium and long term. At the first stage of the implementation of the Far Eastern LNG, Sakhalin-1 gas will be used; its volume will be just enough for one stage of the plant. ”

“Vladivostok LNG” and “Far Eastern LNG” - export projects, shared the opinion I. Yushkov. They target the Asian market. In the APR market is now the highest gas prices. The main buyers of Russian LNG from both projects will be Chinese, Japanese and Korean companies.

However, it’s not yet a fact that the Far Eastern LNG project will be implemented. There are several alternative options. For one of them, Vladimir Putin may not approve the project. In favor of this version is the fact that the president promised the head of Shell support in expanding the existing LNG plant of Sakhalin Energy. In fact, this means approval of the construction of the third stage. But until recently, the third stage was not built due to the lack of a resource base. Now, the large Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field is called the resource base of the third stage. However, the date of its launch is not yet precisely defined. In addition, this field should supply gas to another LNG project of Gazprom - Vladivostok LNG. Therefore, Gazprom is counting on Sakhalin-1 gas. The head of the Russian state can approve this option. But for this, Rosneft should receive compensation. There are also several options. For example, Sakhalin-1 gas can be bought by Gazprom at the export price, thereby Rosneft and ExxonMobil will receive the same profit as in the sale of Far Eastern LNG, but there will be no costs for building the plant. Another option: Rosneft will change Sakhalin-1 gas to oil from the South Kirinskoye field. During the exploration of this field were discovered oil reserves. However, when approving reserves at the state commission, Gazprom intends to submit an application that would limit oil reserves. Those. Officially, the deposits are small. This is done so that the license does not oblige Gazprom to extract oil first, and only then proceed to gas production. After all, Gazprom needs gas as soon as possible. Therefore, the option of exchanging Gazprom’s oil for Rosneft’s gas becomes unlikely. Another option: the exchange of Sakhalin-1 gas for Rosneft access to the Power of Siberia gas pipeline. Rosneft and other manufacturers are ready to supply up to 25 billion cubic meters to the gas pipeline. m. gas per year.

Thus, there are many variants of the development of events. Everything will depend on who wins the lobbying struggle, believes the leading analyst of the FNEB.

For quite a long time Gazprom considered the possibility of expanding the capacities of its already operating LNG plant as part of the Sakhalin-2 project. As was told by the co-director of the analytical department of Investkafe Gregory Birg, at present this enterprise is capable of producing about 10 million tons of LNG per year.

“Gas reserves of the Sakhalin-2 project are about 600 billion cubic meters. m, and to increase the plant's capacity, it is necessary to expand the resource base. Previously, the possibility of using the resource base of the Sakhalin-1 project of Rosneft was considered, but the oil company decided to build its own LNG plant on Sakhalin. Interestingly, recently Gazprom not only discovered large oil reserves at the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field, which is part of the Sakhalin-3 project, but also increased its gas reserves estimate to 682 billion cubic meters. m. In addition to the Yuzhno-Kirinskoye field, the Kirinsky block of the Sakhalin-3 project also contains the field of the same name with reserves of 163 billion cubic meters. meters of gas and Mynginskoye with reserves of 20 billion cubic meters. m of gas. The increased reserves of blue fuel at the Sakhalin-3 fields will allow the Gazprom LNG plant in Vladivostok to be fully supplied with raw materials, ”the expert said. - They should become the resource base of the first two lines of the enterprise with a capacity of 5 million tons each. It is planned to supply gas to it from the Irkutsk, Yakutsk and Krasnoyarsk production centers. Gas reserves of the Chayandinskoye field amount to 1,4 trillion cubic meters. m, and Kovyktinsky - 1,5 trillion cubic meters. m of gas. At the peak of production, only these two fields can produce about 60 billion cubic meters. m of gas. Accordingly, it can be assumed that the third line of the plant in Vladivostok, and possibly the third line of the operating LNG plant, which is part of Sakhalin-2, will also be provided with raw materials.

Gazprom refuses to allow Rosneft raw materials intended for liquefaction to its gas pipeline, as in this case the gas monopoly will not have enough capacity for its own LNG projects.

"The conflict between Gazprom and Rosneft over the feasibility of building an LNG plant has been going on for a long time, since Rosneft announced plans to build an LNG plant on Sakhalin. Putin said that Rosneft should agree on plans to build additional LNG capacities on Sakhalin with other projects, both existing and planned, and Gazprom's management stated that the construction of yet another LNG plant is inappropriate. In addition, the president of the Russian Federation advocated that the gas from Sakhalin-1, a stake in which Rosneft owns, be supplied to the already operating enterprise Sakhalin-2, a stake in which Gazprom owns. Representatives of the gas corporation also made it clear that the existing capacities of the Sakhalin-2 gas pipeline will not suffice for the raw materials of Rosneft, which it intends to supply to its LNG plant in Sakhalin. Without a doubt, LNG will be exported from both projects, "G. Birg said.

V. Timoshilov also pointed to the contradiction in the actions of Rosneft. According to him, the company wants to build a LNG plant on Sakhalin and at the same time requests for gas from the East Petrochemical Company 4,5 billion cubic meters. "Rosneft" did not comment on statement of V. Timoshilov.

"In order to meet the growing demand in the regional market, Rosneft is implementing a project for the construction of an East Petrochemical Company (VNKH) with a capacity of up to 30 million tons, which will meet the demand primarily for the needs of Russian regions in the medium and long term," press-service of Rosneft.

A significant part of the petrochemical products of the VNKhK project is planned to be exported to the APR markets. To this end, the construction of polymer production is envisaged as part of the petrochemical complex. This will create a powerful oil and gas chemical cluster in Primorsky Krai, which will give impetus to the development of domestic production and the creation of new jobs. The implementation of the project will also create a unique opportunity for exporting the final products of Russian production with high added value to the promising Asian markets.

As previously reported agency, the cost of building a petrochemical complex will exceed the previously announced. "The cost of the project was once announced in the prices of 2013 year - this is more than 1,3 trillion rubles. We understand already that it will be higher, "Viktor Ishayev, adviser to the president of Rosneft for coordinating projects in the Far East, said at a press conference on the work of VNKhK. - Only the complex itself will give 20 thousand jobs. If we calculate that this complex is a multiplier, then in general in Russia there is an increase - roughly an order of 100 thousand jobs. Of course, all budgets will feel the inflow of personal income tax. Revenues are expected to be given to all budgets up to 2030 about 1 trillion rubles. "

The plant needs 1,6-1,8 thousand hectares of land, while under the old project was allocated 650 ha. According to V. Ishayev, VNHK will completely cover the fuel deficit of the Far East. The project is designed for 15 years of implementation.

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