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DV subjects were upset - there are more "squares", fewer tenants
Those leaving the Far East are improving statistics on the provision of housing for those who remain.
The national project "Housing and Urban Environment", which has been operating in Russia since 2019, should provide the country's families with affordable comfortable apartments as much as possible in five years. For the sake of this, preferential mortgage lending programs have been developed, the regions have been instructed to increase the volume of housing construction in order to meet demand, and in the Far East they also have to reduce the outflow of the population. But the final figures in the officials' reports paint a wrong picture that would reflect reality. Read more about how statistics are manipulated in the Far Eastern Federal District - in the material of EastRussia.
Experts from the "Eastern Center for State Planning" (hereinafter "Vostokgosplan". - Ed.) announced that by the end of 2020 in five regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, the volume of housing construction has increased, and this, in turn, will lead to an increase in the population. It was about Transbaikalia, Magadan and Amur regions, Jewish Autonomous Region and Buryatia.
“The volume of construction work in the Trans-Baikal Territory increased by 40,7% compared to last year, in the Magadan Region - by 19,5%, the Amur Region - by 11,3%, the Jewish Autonomous Region - by 8,3% and the Republic of Buryatia - by 6,9%, ”- say analysts.
According to Rosstat, over the past three years, in the Jewish Autonomous Region, the growth in construction volumes was observed in 2019 - 23,6 thousand square meters of housing were commissioned in the region. In 2018, this figure was 19,5 thousand. As for the past year (2020), only 14,1 thousand square meters of living space were commissioned in the Jewish Autonomous Region, taking into account individual housing construction, this is 40 percent less. The region does not even have money to maintain the pace of construction, let alone increase it: according to the Interregional Association for Economic Cooperation "The Far East and Transbaikalia", the regional budget needs 4 billion federal aid to achieve optimal performance in the implementation of the national project programs by 2025 and build 39 more apartment buildings. Last year, a little more than 6 thousand square meters in Obluchye were built in the Jewish Autonomous Region. These are 134 apartments that want to be commissioned in 2021, and they are intended to relocate the owners of the emergency fund - this housing will not go on sale.
In the Amur Region, the statistics curve is similar: from 111,6 thousand square meters of housing in 2018, it jumped to 176,2 thousand in 2019. And last year there was a drop. At the beginning of 2020, about 155,7 thousand "squares" were being built in the Amur region, but by the onset of 2021 only 135 thousand were completed. strength. Chinese workers did not come to the Amur Region, and the developers had to slow down.
More or less, the data of Vostokgosplan correspond to reality in the Magadan Region: from 2018 to 2020, 4,3 thousand, 7,4 thousand and 9 thousand square meters of housing were handed over there, respectively. But experts' statements about the growth in construction volumes do not look so impressive after analyzing the numbers: a little more was built in Kolyma than in the impoverished Jewish Autonomous Region. At the same time, the territory of the Jewish Autonomous Region is almost 12 times smaller than the Magadan Region, and its population is only 18 thousand more.
In Buryatia, on the contrary, the indicators announced by Rosstat are higher than those of Vostokgosplan - the statistics of experts are underestimated by 12 percent. In 2019, 230,6 thousand square meters of housing were commissioned in this region, and in 2020 - 275,8 thousand, which gives an increase of 19 percent. As for the Trans-Baikal Territory, the volume of housing construction there has been falling over the past three years. In 2018, 210,1 thousand square meters were commissioned, in 2019 - already 198,2 thousand, and in 2020 - only 170,7 thousand "squares". The fall was nearly 20 percent.
In the Khabarovsk Territory, the pace of housing construction has decreased over three years from 290,78 thousand square meters to 223,1 thousand. In Primorye, the bar is gradually growing - 533,78 thousand "squares" to 645,47 thousand during the same time. Sakhalin is building housing on a sinusoidal schedule: 389,17 thousand, 333,2 thousand and 435,7 thousand square meters for three years. A similar situation, adjusted for figures, has developed in Kamchatka and Yakutia. In the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug, the growth in construction indicators is insignificant: from 880 square meters in 2018, the region reached 1,7 thousand at the end of 2020. Thus, the real growth reported by Vostokgosplan coincides with the official Russian statistics only for the Magadan region.
These inconsistencies are not the only ones in the existing picture of housing construction in the Far East. It is almost impossible to get acquainted with the real data for each of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District: the reporting figures of the ministries of construction cannot be found in the public domain. EastRussia's requests were not answered from the Magadan Region, Buryatia, Transbaikalia, Yakutia, Chukotka and the Jewish Autonomous Region. In the Khabarovsk Territory, information was provided for three years, but it does not entirely correspond to the data of Rosstat. So, in 2018, according to the regional Ministry of Construction, housing commissioning amounted to 273,8 thousand square meters - federal statistics says about 290,78 thousand.In 2019, local developers handed over 294,5 thousand square meters according to the Ministry of Construction, and 282 thousand - according to Rosstat reports. The figure for 2020 in the Khabarovsk Territory is overestimated by 5,3 thousand square meters in comparison with the federal one (228,4 thousand "squares" against 223,1 thousand).
In the Primorsky Territory and Sakhalin, on the contrary, the data up to a thousandth share coincide with the Rosstat reports, as if they were made under a carbon copy. In the Amur Region, at the end of 2020, the data are contradictory: according to Amurstat, 135 thousand square meters of housing were put into operation, and the Ministry of Construction says about 155,7 thousand sq.
Hundredths of a square
The indicator of the construction of square meters in relation to the number of citizens also speaks about the real provision of housing for the population. On average, in Russia, at the end of 2020, they built 0,4 square meters per person. At the same time, about 94 percent of the volume of housing construction is accumulated in cities, and in fact - in 308 agglomerations. Another 809 large settlements of the country do not grow in square meters, and 24 million Russians live in them - these data were published by the Rating Agency of the Construction Complex (RASK).
In at least half of the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District, the ratio of housing construction to the population is lower than the average in Russia. So, at the end of 2020, 1 people lived in the Trans-Baikal Territory, and only 053 square meters of housing was built for each - 485 times less than the national average. In Buryatia it is 0,16 square meters per citizen, in Chukotka - 2,5 square meters, in the Jewish Autonomous Region - 0,277 square meters. On Sakhalin and the Kuril Islands, there are 0,03 "squares" of new buildings per one islander - this is 0,09 times more than the average in Russia and 0,89 percent more than in 2,2, but this fact is on the list of "Vostokgosplan" as oddly enough, does not appear at all.
In the Amur Region, 2020 square meters per person was built in 0,17, and 2019 meters in 0,22. The fall in the real indicator of housing provision by almost 30 percent compared to last year is veiled by an increase in construction volumes. Similar questions arise about the statistics of other regions.
Abandoned, but needed
In addition to obvious inconsistencies in the indicators of new housing construction, the status of abandoned apartments remains suspended - there are plenty of them in the Far East. We are not talking about the resettled emergency and dilapidated fund, which has not yet been liquidated, but about quite suitable for habitation premises in small towns and villages. Some of those who leave for years have not been able to sell their apartments - no one needs such living space. Part of the premises goes to the mobile fund and goes to the disposal of municipalities, part is destroyed. But a large proportion of square meters continues to be empty and empty until the entire building becomes unusable. Sometimes we are talking about whole neighborhoods.
Abandoned houses are gradually “eating up” living space, eliminating small villages. In the Magadan region, the village of Atka has recently ceased to exist. In the Khabarovsk Territory, the number of empty houses is growing, and "free" square meters come under the control of regional administrations - the regional authorities do not take into account such housing in statistics. Whole blocks of abandoned apartments can be seen in Amursk: they appeared in the 90s of the last century, when the city's population declined by almost 30 percent. Now there are 14 such buildings, and the local mayor's office is trying to disguise the unsightly facades with camouflage printed panels. Banner nets cover house no. 8 on Komsomolsky Prospekt and four houses on Stroiteley Street. It looks nice, but the colorful wrapper does not diminish the problem: the abandoned apartments in Amursk are still hanging on the balance sheet of the city like a dead weight. They cannot be populated, but they cannot be recognized as emergency or unusable. The city administration refused to comment on the stalemate.
In addition, in none of the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District, the regional ministries of construction do not track how many square meters of housing in a rented house the developer actually puts on the free market. Annual reports include figures showing the overall squareness of the building. At the same time, the contractor can leave several residential premises in his reserve and not start up for sale. In official statistics, this "cut" is not reflected in any way and gives a bonus to the annual indicator of construction - and, therefore, space for possible manipulation of statistics.
"The Ministry of Construction does not control how the developer company disposes of the constructed apartments, if they were not built under the terms of the concluded contract with our institution," a representative of the Ministry of Construction of the Khabarovsk Territory told EastRussia.
The most controversial in this story remains the formula for calculating the provision of housing, which was already discussed above: the volume of leased square meters is divided by the population of the region. The migration of the population from the Far East is measured annually in thousands of people, and there is room for juggling with statistics. So, according to the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East, in 2019 the outflow of the population from the Far Eastern Federal District totaled 10,4 thousand people. This is the so-called immigration loss. In fact, 285 people from the Far East left the macroregion. According to Rosstat, in just six months (January-July 165) and the Khabarovsk Territory alone, more than 2019 thousand citizens have lost. Over the same period, a little more than a thousand citizens left the Trans-Baikal Territory, about 31 people left the Amur Region. Even taking into account foreigners who arrived in the Far Eastern regions, who come under labor quotas for a while, and there were 1 people arrived in 600, the picture is very different from the one declared by the federal department. In 2019, migration from the Far East has decreased due to the coronavirus pandemic, but with the weakening of epidemiological restrictions, it is expected to increase.
If we assume that 10,4 Far Easterners who left the federal district in 2019 are families of three, each of whom owned an apartment of about 50 square meters, then those who left left 3466 apartments in the regions of the Far Eastern Federal District. The total area of this housing will be 173 thousand square meters, which will appear on the real estate markets of the Far East as accessible to the population. This is about 15,7 thousand square meters for each of the 11 regions. In addition, even if 100 thousand squares are built annually in the notional Amur Region, this volume will be distributed to the constantly decreasing population. A similar situation develops in each of the subjects of the Far East: people leave, not paying attention to the growth or decline in the pace of construction.
Thus, even with the same rates of housing construction, the indicator of the provision of square meters in the Far East as a whole and in each of the regions can grow every 12 months. To do this, the Far Easterners, apparently, need only continue to leave their native land: the fewer residents in the region, the more square meters they have, according to the laws of inverse mathematical proportion.