Irkutsk
Ulan-Ude

Blagoveshchensk
Chita
Yakutsk

Birobidzhan
Vladivostok
Khabarovsk

Magadan
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Anadyr
Petropavlovsk-
Kamchatsky
Moscow

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Add the Far East to the capital

What are the proposals to supplement the regimes of TOP, SPV and "Far Eastern hectare" economists

Recently, Minvostokrazvitiya with the submission of Khabarovsk governor Vyacheslav Shport supported the idea of ​​increasing subsidies for migrants to the Far East for specific jobs with 250 thousand rubles. up to 1 million rubles. But few people remember that for several years now the group of academic economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences proposes to supplement the measures for the accelerated development of the Far East by paying all arrivals to work in priority investment projects of "Far Eastern capital" of at least 500 thousand rubles. EastRussia publishes the eponymous report of academicians, published at the end of 2017 year, to understand what the expected effect can bring such a measure of state support. 

Add the Far East to the capital
Photo: mymood.ru
Special project TORA and Free Port
The Far East has always been very important for Russia as a source of valuable resources, as the main gateway to the markets of Asia and the Pacific, as the most important space for the development of the national economy and as a key defensive line.

The Far Eastern Federal District (FEFD) contains 81% of the total Russian diamond reserves and almost 100% of their production; one third of the national gold reserves and almost half of its production; 30% of reserves and over 50% of silver production. The Far Eastern Federal District provides 100% of all-Russian tin and antimony mining, 63% of lead mining and 87% of tungsten concentrate production. The district accounts for 36% of the country's forested area and 25% of the national timber resources. In addition, more than 20% of the forecast resources of Russian hydrocarbons are concentrated in the Okrug. The share of the Far Eastern Federal District in the all-Russian catch and production of fish products exceeds 65%.

The need for priority development of the Russian Far East is also predetermined by the fact that it directly borders on today's leaders of the world economy - the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR). In these circumstances, Russia can and should cooperate in the most active way with the countries of the Asia-Pacific region, but the full-scale effect of such cooperation is possible only if there is an economically strong and competitive Far East.

At present, the State Program for the Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region (DVBR) has become a key instrument of state policy in relation to the eastern territories of Russia. However, the implementation of this State Program is taking place in difficult economic conditions.

One of the key problems that hinder the solution of the tasks set by the President and the Government of Russia for the long-term development of the Far East Development and Development Administration is the shortage of labor resources in the macroregion. In this situation, it is necessary to increase the population of the macroregion, including by attracting qualified workers from other parts of Russia to the territory of the Far Eastern District and by strengthening the indigenous population.

To this end, a group of scientists from the Russian Academy of Sciences has developed a program of additional measures to increase the attractiveness of a working career in the Far East. The program is based on a proposal to pay employees a targeted one-time subsidy - "Far Eastern capital", which will be used to purchase housing, create and develop their own business, pay for education and support additional retirement benefits. It is proposed to start the implementation of this program from the territories where
the most important investment projects for the Far East are being implemented (primarily in relation to priority development territories - TORs - and special economic zones). As the economic situation in Russia improves, a phased expansion of the program to the entire territory of the Far East is possible.

The main objectives of the Far Eastern capital program:

- Fulfillment of orders of the President of the Russian Federation and decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation on the development of the Far East, support of the activities of the State Program "Social and Economic Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region" and the corresponding federal target programs.

- Creation of a new long-term instrument that will contribute to solving the socio-demographic and economic problems of the Far East, and the implementation of decisions aimed at strengthening Russia's position in the markets of the leaders of the world economy - the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

The main objectives of the Far Eastern capital program:

- Attracting qualified workers to the Far East in the areas of economic growth in the Far East - TORs, the Free Port of Vladivostok and the zones for the implementation of large investment projects (primarily in mechanical engineering, transport, in the processing of raw materials and the production of final products)
- Solving the housing problems of the population of the Far East, supporting young families, expanding the opportunities for citizens to create their own business, pay for education and form individual retirement accounts.
- Accelerating the development of the economy of the Far East by expanding the scale of domestic effective demand and strengthening the multiplier effects generated by housing construction.

ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION

The key threat that casts doubt on the prospects for the long-term development of the FD&B is a large-scale decline in the population of the macroregion. This process has been going on for more than 25 years, and it still cannot be considered stopped. In particular, in the period from 1989 to 2015, the population in the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District decreased by almost 22%. 



Migration to other regions of the country and abroad accounted for about 85% of these population losses, and another 15% - on the excess of the death rate over the birth rate. At the same time, the outflow of highly qualified workers from the Far East occurred at an even higher rate. The population decline in the macroregion continues even now.

In particular, according to Rosstat, the migration loss of the FEFD population in 2016 amounted to 17 people, while the natural increase in the FEFD population for this year was only 367 people. Thus, the population of the Far Eastern Federal District in 5. decreased by 077 people.

The main reason that gave rise to extremely unfavorable demographic trends in recent decades was the lag in the real standard of living of the population of the Far East and Siberia region from the average Russian indicators (see Tables 1 and 2).

Table 1. Estimation of a standard of living of the population taking into account a difference in the prices
Date \ Parameter
Cost
fixed
recruit
Consumer
goods and services,
rub.
Average per capita
Incomes
population
(nominal),
rub.
Number
fixed
sets,
corresponding to
nominal
per capita
Revenues, units
Average per capita
Incomes
of the population with
allowance for differences
in the prices, rbl.
RF, 2011
9 175
20 780
2,26
20 780
DFO, 2011
11 818
22 870
1,94
17 837
RF, 2014, December
12 035
27 766
2,31
27 766
DFO, 2014, December
15 427
31 974
2,07
24 882
Source: FSGS of Russia

Table 2. Estimating the standard of living of pensioners taking into account the difference in prices
Date \ Parameter
Cost
fixed
recruit
Consumer
goods and services,
rub.
Average
amount of pensions
(nominal),
rub.
Fixed number
bathroom sets,
corresponding to
rated
average pension,
units
Average
amount of pension
taking into account
differences in
prices, rubles.
RF, 2011
9 175
8 273
0,90
9 175
DFO, 2011
11 818
9 712
0,82
8 356
RF, 2014, December
12 035
10 889
0,90
12 035
DFO, 2014, December
15 427
12 875
0,83
11 099
Source: FSGS of Russia

THE HISTORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE FAR EAST

Throughout the entire period of the development of the eastern lands of Russia, the most important feature of the state's policy was the widespread use of subsidies, benefits and preferences provided to both migrants and local residents. 

For example, the law of June 1, 1882 introduced a number of benefits for settlers in South Primorye, including such as: 1) exemption from all arrears; 2) allotment of land - at least 15 dessiatines (16,4 hectares) per person (no more than 100 dessiatines (109 hectares) per family) - with the right to redeem the property at 3 rubles per tithe; 3) exemption from state taxes and duties for 5 years; 4) free travel from Odessa to Vladivostok; 5) the allocation of 60 pounds of flour and 10 pounds of cereal per capita per month for one and a half years; 6) the issuance of 100 rubles for the procurement of materials for the construction of housing.

Support for the Cossack villages was even more ambitious. In the second half of the 30th century, an ordinary Cossack had the right to receive 32,7 dessiatines (200 hectares) of land, Cossack officers could receive a land allotment of up to 400-218 dessiatines (436-XNUMX hectares).

The 1906 “Regulations on Resettlement to State Lands” actually confirmed these benefits and introduced a number of new measures to support migrants: loans for travel needs and economic development, permission to harvest timber for construction needs, a 3-year deferral from conscription for persons liable for military service, etc. It should be noted that it was in the Far East that the size of loans for the economic arrangement of immigrants was the largest in Russia - 200 rubles per family. This amount was approximately equal to the annual earnings of an industrial worker in the European provinces of Russia at the beginning of the 200th century. At that time, in Siberia, where livestock prices were lower than in the rest of Russia, 4 rubles could be bought: 5-6 horses or 8-20 cows, 30-40 pigs or 45-1912 sheep. And in 400, it was decided to increase the size of the maximum loan to settlers in the Amur Territory to XNUMX rubles. In other words, any peasant family that moved to the Far East immediately got the opportunity to conduct full-fledged economic activities and quickly solve their housing problem.

In Soviet times, especially in the postwar years, economic incentives in the form of various types of benefits and preferences were also very actively used to attract new workers to the territory of the Far East. In particular, the workers were paid the so-called northern allowances and regional coefficients, which allowed them to significantly increase their wages. The size of these payments, as a rule, was such that it not only compensated for the increased cost of living in the macroregion, but also allowed the population of most of the eastern territories to have a higher standard of living than the national average. For example, in the 1960s and later in the northeastern regions of the Far Eastern Region - Chukotka, Kamchatka, Sakhalin, parts of Yakutia and the Khabarovsk Territory - the value of the regional coefficient was 1,6-2,0 (in other words, the legally approved payment for a unit of working time there was 1,6-2,0 times higher than the payment of the same unit in the usual regions of the USSR). In the central and southern regions of the Far Eastern Region, the value of the regional coefficient reached 1,2-1,5.

In addition, many categories of Far Eastern workers were granted longer vacations; they subsidized the expenses associated with travel to other regions and with the organization of recreation, etc.

Individuals from other regions of the USSR who entered into an employment contract for work in the Far East for 2 years or more were given a one-time cash allowance (lifting), free travel for the whole family and luggage to the destination were provided, daily per diem was paid for the days of the trip; the opportunity was given to buy out of turn goods in short supply at that time, including cars that were especially attractive to Soviet citizens.

Special attention was paid to the provision of housing for workers in Far Eastern enterprises. It was the solution of the housing issue that was the decisive factor in securing voluntary settlers in the Far East. In the 1930s, there were cases when up to 75-80% of the workers imported to the Far East by organizational recruitment, despite the availability of benefits and subsidies, left back, because the leadership could not provide them with housing.

Subsequently, when the pace of housing construction in the USSR increased, the situation became much more favorable. Starting from about the mid-1950s, the majority of workers in Far Eastern enterprises had a real opportunity to get public housing for free. However, in most cases, free access to the most comfortable type of housing - a separate apartment - was possible only if a number of conditions were met: the enterprise had the ability to provide apartments to its employees, the employees had a certain length of service, etc. All this entailed the emergence long-term queues for free apartments. To reduce these queues, decisions were made to develop departmental and cooperative housing construction on commercial terms. In other words, the methods for solving the housing problem were applied that work well within the framework of a modern market economy. 

For example, the decree of the Council of Ministers of the USSR of 1982 "On housing and construction cooperation" allowed enterprises to provide gratuitous material assistance to members of housing cooperatives who have worked at the enterprise for at least 5 years. In the Far East, the amount of this assistance was up to 40% of the initial contribution for newlyweds and 30% for other categories of workers (which was 2 times more than in other regions of the USSR).

The ability to solve personal land and housing issues, as well as the provision of other benefits and preferences, were very effective incentives for citizens to voluntarily move to the Far East in both imperial and Soviet Russia.

As a result, in just 20 years - from 1897 to 1916 - the population of the Far East grew from 372 thousand people. up to 988 thousand people, or more than two and a half times. In Soviet times, the pace of demographic dynamics in the east of the country was also very high - the population of the Far East and the Baikal region in the period from 1926 to 1991 increased more than five times.

It was the large-scale influx of the able-bodied population that ensured the successful implementation of programs for the development of the Far East and predetermined the strengthening of Russia's geostrategic positions in the eastern direction. 

PROPOSED ACTION 

In modern conditions, it is proposed to consider the payment of Far Eastern capital as a key instrument of long-term state support for the population of the Far East.

The essence of this measure is as follows. 

Citizens of Russia attracted to work in the framework of priority investment projects for the Far Eastern Region (primarily in the TORs) are invited to pay a one-time targeted subsidy - Far Eastern capital. At the same time, the subsidy can be spent only for long-term investment needs - the purchase or construction of housing, the acquisition of land, the creation and development of one's own business, the payment of education, as well as additional pension provision, including the formation of individual pension accounts.

The use of the Far Eastern capital will be allowed only within the DViBR.

The source of financing for the Far Eastern capital can be the federal budget revenues of a rental nature (for example, part of the increase in the severance tax collected in the Far East), as well as additional tax revenues from the implementation of new investment projects in the Far East, redistribution of financing within the framework of existing benefits and subsidies. The procedure for obtaining this subsidy will be determined by the government of the Russian Federation.

It is proposed to implement the Far Eastern capital program in stages. At the pilot stage, all the necessary institutions and mechanisms should be created and tested. At the subsequent stages, the program can be gradually expanded to the entire territory of the Far Eastern Region, including additional categories of workers.

Factors Contributing to the Success of the Far East Capital Program

- Russia already has a positive experience in implementing similar programs. The history of the implementation of the maternity capital program is a good argument in favor. Russian citizens welcomed this measure of state support and immediately began to actively use the opportunities that maternity capital opened up. Moreover, in most cases, the actions of ordinary people to develop maternity capital are very reasonable from an economic point of view and bring real benefits to the entire national economy of Russia.

- The economic motives that induce Russian citizens to live and work in the Far East will significantly increase. For Russian citizens who decide to move to the east of Russia in order to work in new industries, the possibility of obtaining Far Eastern capital will be a weighty additional argument. First of all, the Far Eastern capital will speed up and simplify the solution of the housing problem. In particular, it will allow you to cope with the most difficult task that arises in the process of purchasing a home - finding money to pay a large down payment for an apartment. In addition, the ability to pay a large down payment makes it possible to significantly reduce the size of the requested mortgage loan, the interest rate on it, its maturity and the cost of insurance.

An important incentive for some active people will be the opportunity to use the Far Eastern capital as a subsidy to open their own business (in addition to the opportunities associated with access to the “Far Eastern hectare”) or to receive education in the desired profile.

The opportunity to obtain Far Eastern capital will also seriously affect the migration sentiments of the resident population. From the point of view of economic logic, it would be wrong to leave the Far East if, for example, in the coming years many local workers will be entitled to a targeted subsidy comparable to the average per capita wage per year.

The special attractiveness of this subsidy for local residents will be that its investment in the framework of the supplementary pension provision program will in the future allow receiving an increased pension.

In other words, thanks to the Far Eastern capital program, the principle “if you work in the Far East, you get not only a high salary, but also a large subsidy” will be implemented.

- Large-scale investments at the expense of the Far Eastern capital will provide a significant multiplier effect, the basis of which will be the inflow of additional funds, the source of which will be the savings of the citizens themselves and the mortgage loans taken. As the experience of previous years shows, the ruble of investments financed by the state in the Far East provided an inflow of 5-7 rubles from other sources. Therefore, there is every reason to expect that financing of the Far Eastern capital program will provide the macroregion's economy with a powerful investment impetus.

In addition, investment in housing construction, the growth of which should be expected in the first place, will sharply increase the demand for a range of goods and services. The volume of construction and purchases of building materials will grow rapidly, followed by purchases of furniture and household appliances. The development of all related industries is also stimulated - transport, development of construction raw materials, metallurgy, timber processing, repair and maintenance. The development of such spheres as energy, communications, financial and banking, wholesale and retail trade, housing and communal services is receiving a serious impetus. 

At the same time, due to the specifics of housing construction and housing and communal services (the high profitability of using local resources), a very significant part of the demand associated with it will be met by regional manufacturers and suppliers. The growth in production will result in a significant increase in tax revenues to the budgets of all levels (Table 3).

- The Far Eastern Capital Program will ensure the launch of very powerful mechanisms of market self-action. As the experience associated with maternity capital, as well as the experience with housing certificates for military and young scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences, has shown, the implementation of such programs does not require the creation of a large bureaucracy. The existing structures of the state and large banks, working according to relatively simple rules and exercising cross-control, quickly and quite normally organize the process. And people who want to use their capital to invest in housing soon begin to develop their resources.

The active involvement of the population in solving their housing problems will stimulate both the attraction of funds by citizens from other sources (their own savings, bank loans) and an increase in the labor activity of workers aimed at obtaining additional income necessary to pay for the housing they buy. At the same time, no special additional impulses from the state are required - the economic process will start on its own.

POSSIBLE FORMAT OF FAR EASTERN CAPITAL

- The amount of capital. 

This size should be sufficient to solve any major family problem. For example, related to the improvement of housing conditions. In this regard, it is desirable that the subsidy paid should be approximately 20-30% of the cost of a standard two-room apartment (per family, at an average price for a macro-region). This amount, as a rule, allows the family to pay the down payment on the mortgage taken to buy a new apartment. 

In our opinion, at present, the specified requirements are met by the amount of approximately 500 thousand rubles (in 2016 prices). The final decision on the size of the Far Eastern capital must be made by the Russian government.

The main conditions for issuing Far Eastern capital, in our opinion, should be as follows:

- The procedure for issuing Far Eastern capital and the size of the annual quota for its issuance are determined by the Russian government.

- Quotas for obtaining Far Eastern capital should first of all be allocated to provide qualified workers for ASEZs and investment projects recognized as priorities for the macroregion.

- The recipients of the Far Eastern capital should be exclusively Russian citizens of working age, constantly working in the ASEZs and within the framework of priority investment projects in the Far Eastern Federal District.

STAGES OF THE PROGRAM

In the period from 2017 to 2021, it is proposed to carry out the pilot stage of the program, focused on attracting labor resources to the ASEZ and investment projects that are particularly important for the macroregion. The number of allocated quotas for Far Eastern capital during this period is proposed to be gradually increased - from 2 people per year to 500 people per year. In the period from 12. until 500 it is proposed to increase the number of program participants by expanding the number of supported investment projects and to bring the annual quota for the allocation of the Far East capital to 2022 people.

ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS AND EXPECTED EFFECTS

If the baseline scenario of the Far Eastern capital program is implemented, the need for financing will grow from 1,25 billion rubles. in 2017 to 16,25 billion rubles. in 2028 Starting from 2029, the annual costs of the program will amount to RUB 17,5 billion. The total costs of the project in the period from 2017 to 2035 will amount to RUB 228,8 billion. (excluding indexation). Forecast calculations show that due to the implementation of the Far Eastern capital program, a large-scale socio-economic and budgetary effect will be obtained (see Table 3).

Table 3. Forecast results of the implementation of the Far Eastern capital program
number
p / p
Indicator of the program
Expected Result
Note
1.
Number of highly skilled workers,
attracted to the Far East within the framework of
program for the period 2017-2035gg.
458
thousand people.

2.
The total number of residents who moved to
The Far East thanks to the program for
period 2017-2035YY.
620
thousand people.
Provided that 50%
employees, attracted
to implementation at
priority projects,
come from other
regions of Russia
3.
Total expenses
budget for the implementation of the program for 2017-
2035gg.
228,8
billion rubles.

4.
Total increase in incomes
state budget for 2017-2035gg.
237,8
billion rubles.

5.
Excess of income of state
budget over expenditures for the period 2017-
2035gg.
9
billion rubles.

6.
The total increase in Russia's GDP,
due to program implementation
Far East capital, for the period of 2017-
2035gg.
785
billion rubles.


The first significant effects from the implementation of the program will appear in the short term. According to expert estimates, thanks to the implementation of the Far Eastern capital program, the number of new employees with an average monthly salary of 56 thousand rubles. per month and above in 2021 will be 18,8 thousand. As a result of budgetary effects, expressed through an increase in personal income tax, social contributions, VAT, income tax, property tax, etc., already in 2021 there will be an increase in budget revenues at the level of 2 billion rubles, in 2030 the increase will be 19,3 , 2035 billion rubles, in 35 - XNUMX billion rubles.

An additional increase in industrial production, due to the implementation of the Far Eastern capital program, is estimated at about 11,6 billion rubles. for 2021, 111 billion rubles. for 2030 and 200 billion rubles. for 2035 (in 2016 prices).



In the longer term, the full payback of the Far Eastern capital program is clearly visible in terms of the ratio of budget expenditures and additional budget revenues - the total additional budget revenues for the period 2017-2035. will amount to 237,8 billion rubles. Even more significant will be the macroeconomic effects generated by the implementation of the program. By 2035, the program will provide over 115 billion rubles. additional growth of Russia's GDP per year. At the same time, the accumulated additional GDP growth for the period 2017-2035. will amount to 785 billion rubles. This amount corresponds to 24,5% of the annual gross regional product of the Far Eastern Federal District. In other words, the Far Eastern capital program itself will increase the GRP of the Far Eastern Federal District by about 1,0-1,5% per year, which suggests that its impact will have a macroeconomic scale.

Table 4. The main forecast indicators of the Far Eastern capital program
Year
Number of people involved
highly qualified
employees, thousand people.
Costs
budget,
billion rubles.
Growth
income
budget,
billion rubles.
Russia's GDP growth,
conditional
program, billion rubles.
2017
2,5
1,3
0,1
0,3
2018
5,0
2,5
0,3
1,0
2019
7,5
3,8
0,7
2,3
2020
10,0
5,0
1,3
4,1
2021
12,5
6,3
2,0
6,5
2022
17,5
8,8
3,0
9,8
2023
20,0
10,0
4,2
13,9
2024
22,5
11,3
5,7
18,8
2025
25,0
12,5
7,4
24,4
2026
27,5
13,8
9,3
30,7
2027
30,0
15,0
11,5
37,7
2028
32,5
16,3
13,9
45,6
2029
35,0
17,5
16,5
54,4
2030
35,0
17,5
19,3
63,8
2031
35,0
17,5
22,3
73,6
2032
35,0
17,5
25,3
83,5
2033
35,0
17,5
28,4
93,9
2034
35,0
17,5
31,6
104,6
2035
35,0
17,5
35,0
115,8
Total
458
228,8
237,8
785


Table 5. Correlation between the price of a standard apartment (54 sq. M.) And the proposed amount of the Far Eastern capital
Subject / Indicator
The price of an apartment, thousand.
rubles
                                            Share of capital of the capital in the price
apartments,%


Primary
market
Secondary
market
Primary
market
Secondary
market

Russian Federation
2783
3039
18
16,5
Far Eastern Federal District
3498
3933
14,3
12,7
Saha Republic
(Yakutia)
3867
4538
12,9
11
Kamchatka
3814
3278
13,1
15,3
Primorsky Krai
3411
4624
14,7
10,8
Khabarovsk Krai
3281
3235
15,2
15,5
Amur Region
3081
3031
16,2
16,5
Magadan region
2970
2792
16,8
17,9
Sakhalin Region
4824
4331
10,4
11,5
Jewish autonomous
area
2224
2303
22,5
21,7

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

1) Historical experience shows that a large-scale influx of population to the Far East is possible only through the provision of significant economic benefits and preferences to migrants and the permanent population. At the same time, the key factor that determined the willingness of people to stay and live and work in the Far East has always been the ability to resolve personal housing and / or land issues.

2) In a market economy, the fastest and most effective way to solve the housing problem should be considered the purchase of commercial housing through mortgage lending. The main problem that hinders the large-scale introduction of mortgages in the Far East is the need to pay too high a down payment on housing loans.

3) The payment of the Far Eastern capital in most cases allows you to solve the problem of the down payment on mortgage loans.

4) Linking payments of the Far Eastern capital to work in the ASEZs and within the framework of priority investment projects allows, as a matter of priority, to provide qualified labor resources to the most promising areas of economic development in the Far East.

5) The implementation of the Far Eastern capital program provides a significant macroeconomic effect, equal to 22% of the annual GRP of the Far Eastern Federal District, and full payback of state budget expenditures by 2035. At the same time, budgetary revenues from the implementation of the program will begin to exceed the budgetary expenditures for the program already in 2030. Funding for the program can be fully provided by part of the increase in the severance tax, which will be collected in the Far East in the period until 2035.

Thus, the Far Eastern capital program can become one of the key factors that can ensure the solution of demographic problems and the outstripping social and economic development of the Far East.

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