Irkutsk
Ulan-Ude

Blagoveshchensk
Chita
Yakutsk

Birobidzhan
Vladivostok
Khabarovsk

Magadan
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Anadyr
Petropavlovsk-
Kamchatsky
Moscow

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Add the Far East to the capital

What are the proposals to supplement the regimes of TOP, SPV and "Far Eastern hectare" economists

Recently, Minvostokrazvitiya with the submission of Khabarovsk governor Vyacheslav Shport supported the idea of ​​increasing subsidies for migrants to the Far East for specific jobs with 250 thousand rubles. up to 1 million rubles. But few people remember that for several years now the group of academic economists of the Russian Academy of Sciences proposes to supplement the measures for the accelerated development of the Far East by paying all arrivals to work in priority investment projects of "Far Eastern capital" of at least 500 thousand rubles. EastRussia publishes the eponymous report of academicians, published at the end of 2017 year, to understand what the expected effect can bring such a measure of state support.

Add the Far East to the capital
Photo: mymood.ru
Special project TORA and Free Port
The Far East has always been very important for Russia as a source of valuable resources, as the main outlet to the markets of Asia and the Pacific, as an important space for the development of the national economy and as a key defensive line.

In the Far Eastern Federal District (DFO), 81% of all-Russian diamond reserves are concentrated and almost 100% of their production; a third of the national gold reserves and almost half of its production; 30% of reserves and over 50% of silver production. DFO provides 100% of all-Russian extraction of tin and antimony, 63% of lead production and 87% of tungsten concentrate production. The district accounts for 36% of the forest area of ​​the country and 25% of the national timber resources. In addition, the district is concentrated more than 20% of the forecast resources of Russian hydrocarbons. The share of the Far Eastern Federal District in the all-Russian catch and production of fish products exceeds 65%.

The need for priority development of the Far East of Russia is also predetermined by the fact that it borders directly with today's leaders of the world economy - the countries of the Asia-Pacific region (APR). In these circumstances, Russia can and should cooperate most actively with the APR countries, but the full-scale effect of such cooperation is possible only in the presence of an economically strong and competitive Far East.

At present, the State Program for the Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region (DVBR) has become the key instrument of state policy towards the eastern territories of Russia. However, the implementation of this State program is taking place in difficult economic conditions.

One of the key problems hampering the solution of the tasks set by the President and the Government of Russia for the long-term development of the LBID is the shortage of labor resources in the macroregion. In this situation it is necessary to increase the population of the macroregion, including by attracting skilled workers from other parts of Russia to the territory of the Liberal Democratic Party of Russia and securing the indigenous population.

To this end, a group of scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences has developed a program of additional measures that enhance the attractiveness of the labor career in the Far East. The program is based on the proposal to pay employees a special one-time subsidy - "Far Eastern capital", which will be used to purchase housing, create and develop their own business, pay for education and support additional pension provision. Start the implementation of this program is proposed from the territories where
the most important investment projects for the Far East are implemented (primarily in relation to the areas of advanced development - TORs - and special economic zones). As the economic situation in Russia improves, a phased distribution of the program to the entire territory of the Far East is possible.

The main objectives of the Far Eastern capital program:

- Implementation of the instructions of the President of the Russian Federation and decisions of the Government of the Russian Federation on the development of the Far East, support for the State Program "Social and Economic Development of the Far East and the Baikal Region" and relevant federal targeted programs.

- Creation of a new long-term instrument that contributes to the solution of the socio-demographic and economic problems of the Far East, and implementation of decisions aimed at strengthening Russia's position in the markets of the world economic leaders - the countries of the Asia-Pacific region.

The main objectives of the Far Eastern capital program:

- The attraction of skilled workers to the Far East in the areas of economic growth in the Far East - TORs, the Free Port of Vladivostok and the zone for the implementation of major investment projects (primarily in machine building, transport, raw materials processing and the production of final products)
- Solving the housing problems of the population of the Far East, supporting young families, empowering citizens to create their own businesses, paying for education and forming individual retirement accounts.
- Accelerating the development of the economy of the Far East by expanding the scale of domestic solvent demand and strengthening the multiplicative effects generated by housing construction.

ASSESSMENT OF THE SITUATION

The key threat that casts doubt on the prospects for the long-term development of the LRT is the large-scale reduction in the population of the macroregion. This process lasts more than 25 years, and it is still not considered to have ceased. In particular, during the period from 1989 to 2015, the population in the Far Eastern Federal District decreased by almost 22%.



Approximately 85% of the specified losses of the population had to migrate to other regions of the country and abroad, and another 15% - to exceed the death rate above the birth rate. At the same time, the outflow of highly skilled workers from the Far East took place even more rapidly. The decline in the population in the macroregion continues even now.

In particular, according to the Federal State Statistics Service, the migration loss of the DFO population in 2016 was 17 367, while the natural increase in the population of the Far Eastern Federal District for this year was only 5 077. Thus, the population of the Far Eastern Federal District in 2016. decreased by 12 290 people.

The main reason for the extremely unfavorable demographic trends of recent decades was the lag in the real living standards of the population of the DVIBR from the average Russian indicators (see tables 1 and 2).

Table 1. Estimation of a standard of living of the population taking into account a difference in the prices
Date \ Parameter
Cost
fixed
recruit
Consumer
goods and services,
rub.
Average per capita
Incomes
population
(nominal),
rub.
Number
fixed
sets,
corresponding to
nominal
per capita
Revenues, units
Average per capita
Incomes
of the population with
allowance for differences
in the prices, rbl.
RF, 2011
9 175
20 780
2,26
20 780
DFO, 2011
11 818
22 870
1,94
17 837
RF, 2014, December
12 035
27 766
2,31
27 766
DFO, 2014, December
15 427
31 974
2,07
24 882
Source: FSGS of Russia

Table 2. Estimating the standard of living of pensioners taking into account the difference in prices
Date \ Parameter
Cost
fixed
recruit
Consumer
goods and services,
rub.
Average
amount of pensions
(nominal),
rub.
Fixed number
bathroom sets,
corresponding to
rated
average pension,
units
Average
amount of pension
taking into account
differences in
prices, rubles.
RF, 2011
9 175
8 273
0,90
9 175
DFO, 2011
11 818
9 712
0,82
8 356
RF, 2014, December
12 035
10 889
0,90
12 035
DFO, 2014, December
15 427
12 875
0,83
11 099
Source: FSGS of Russia

THE HISTORY OF THE DEMOGRAPHIC DEVELOPMENT OF THE FAR EAST

Throughout the entire period of development of the eastern lands of Russia, the most important feature of the state policy was the widespread use of subsidies, privileges and preferences granted to both settlers and local residents.

For example, the law of 1 June 1882 introduced a number of benefits for settlers in the South Primorye, including such as: 1) exemption from all arrears; 2) land allotment - at least 15 acres (16,4 hectare) per person (no more than 100 acres (109 ha) per family) - with the right to redeem the property by 3 ruble per tithe; 3) exemption from state taxes and duties for 5 years; 4) free journey from Odessa to Vladivostok; 5) allocation of 60 pounds of flour and 10 pounds of cereals per capita per month for a year and a half; 6) issue 100 rubles for the procurement of materials for the construction of housing.

Even more ambitious was the support of the Cossack villages. In the second half of the XIX century, the rank and file Cossack had the right to receive 30 acres (32,7 ha) of land, Cossack officers could receive a land plot of up to 200-400 acres (218-436 ha).

"The rules on resettlement to state-owned land" from 1906 actually confirmed these benefits and introduced a number of new measures to support resettlers: loans for travel and economic development, permission to harvest timber for construction needs, 3-year grace period from conscription for persons liable for military service, etc. It should be noted that it was in the Far East that the amount of loans for the economic resettlement of settlers was the largest in Russia - 200 rubles per family. This amount was approximately equal to the annual earnings of an industrial worker in the European provinces of Russia at the beginning of the 20th century. At this time in Siberia, where the prices for livestock were lower than in the rest of Russia, the amount of 200 rubles could be bought: 4-5 horses or 6-8 cows, 20-30 pigs or 40-45 sheep. And in 1912, the size of the maximum loan to settlers in the Amur region was decided to increase to 400 rubles. In other words, any peasant family who moved to the Far East immediately got the opportunity to conduct full-fledged economic activity and quickly solve their housing problem.

In the Soviet era, especially in the post-war years, economic incentives in the form of various benefits and preferences were also very actively used to attract new workers to the territory of the Far East. In particular, workers were paid the so-called northern allowances and district coefficients, which made it possible to significantly increase their wages. The size of these payments, as a rule, was such that it not only compensated for the increased cost of living in the macroregion, but also allowed the population of most of the eastern territories to have a higher standard of living than the national average. For example, in the 1960-s and later in the north-eastern districts of the DVBR - Chukotka, Kamchatka, Sakhalin, part of Yakutia and Khabarovsk Krai - the size of the district coefficient was 1,6-2,0 (in other words, the legally approved payment for a unit of working time there was in 1,6- 2,0 times higher than the payment of the same unit in the normal regions of the USSR). In the central and southern regions of the DVB, the regional coefficient value reached 1,2-1,5.

In addition, many categories of Far Eastern workers were given longer holidays; they were subsidized expenses related to travel to other regions and with the organization of recreation, etc.

Persons from other regions of the USSR who entered into a labor contract for work in the Far East for 2 or more received a one-time cash allowance (lifting), provided free travel of the whole family and baggage to the place of destination, paid a per diem for the days of the trip; the opportunity was given out of turn to buy goods that were scarce at that time, including cars especially attractive for Soviet citizens.

Particular attention was paid to providing workers of Far Eastern enterprises with housing. It was the decision of the housing issue that was the decisive factor in securing the voluntary immigrants in the Far East. In the 1930-ies there were cases when up to 75-80% of the workers imported to the Far East, despite the availability of privileges and subsidies, left because the leadership could not provide them with housing.

Subsequently, when the pace of housing construction in the USSR increased, the situation became much more favorable. Starting around the middle of the 1950-ies, the majority of workers in the Far Eastern enterprises had a real opportunity to get public housing free of charge. However, in most cases, free access to the most comfortable type of housing - a separate apartment - was possible only if a number of conditions were met: the company had the capacity to provide apartments to its employees, the existence of a certain length of service for employees, etc. All this entailed the emergence long queues to receive free apartments. To reduce these queues, decisions were made on the development of departmental and cooperative housing construction on commercial terms. In other words, those methods were used to solve the housing problem, which work well within the framework of the modern market economy.

For example, the decision of the Council of Ministers of the USSR from 1982 "On Housing and Construction Cooperation" allowed enterprises to provide gratuitous material assistance to members of the HBC, who have worked at the enterprise for at least 5 years. In the Far East, the amount of this aid was up to 40% of the initial contribution for the newlyweds and 30% for other categories of workers (which was 2 times more than in other regions of the USSR).

The ability to solve personal land and housing issues, as well as the provision of other benefits and preferences, were very effective incentives for voluntary relocation of citizens to the Far East in both the imperial and Soviet Russia.

As a consequence, in just 20 years - from 1897 in 1916 - the population of the Far East grew from 372 thousand people. up to 988 thousand people, or more than two and a half times. During the Soviet era, the pace of demographic dynamics in the east of the country was also very high: the population of the Far East and the Baikal region increased by more than five times in the period from 1926 to 1991.

It was the large-scale influx of the able-bodied population that ensured the successful implementation of programs for the development of the Far East and predetermined the strengthening of Russia's geostrategic positions in the eastern direction.

PROPOSED ACTION

In modern conditions, it is proposed to consider the payment of Far Eastern capital as a key instrument of long-term state support to the population of the Far East.

The essence of this measure is as follows.

Citizens of Russia, attracted to work within the framework of priority investment projects for the LBID (first of all in the TOR), are offered to pay a one-time target subsidy - Far Eastern capital. At the same time, the subsidy can be spent only on long-term investment needs - purchase or construction of housing, land acquisition, creation and development of own business, payment of education, as well as additional pension provision, including the formation of individual pension accounts.

The use of Far Eastern capital will be allowed only within the framework of the LRTD.

The source of financing of Far Eastern capital may be rental income of the federal budget (for example, part of the increase in the mineral extraction tax collected in the Far East), as well as additional tax revenues from the implementation of new investment projects in the Far East, the redistribution of funding within existing benefits and subsidies. The procedure for obtaining this subsidy will be determined by the government of the Russian Federation.

To implement the program of Far Eastern capital is proposed in stages. At the pilot stage, all necessary institutions and mechanisms should be created and tested. At subsequent stages, the program can be gradually extended to the entire territory of the DVBR, including additional categories of workers.

Factors contributing to the success of the Far Eastern capital program

- Russia already has a positive experience in implementing similar programs. The history of implementing the maternity capital program is a good argument for. Citizens of Russia favorably accepted this measure of state support and immediately began to actively use the opportunities that maternity capital opened. And in most cases, the actions of ordinary people to develop maternal capital are very reasonable from the economic point of view and bring real benefits to the entire national economy of Russia.

- Economic motives that encourage Russian citizens to live and work in the Far East will significantly increase. For Russian citizens who decide to move to the east of Russia to work in new industries, the possibility of obtaining Far Eastern capital will become a weighty additional argument. First of all, Far Eastern capital will accelerate and simplify the solution of the housing problem. In particular, it will help to cope with the most difficult task that arises in the process of purchasing a home - by seeking money to pay a large down payment for an apartment. In addition, the ability to pay a large down payment makes it possible to significantly reduce the size of the requested mortgage, the interest rate on it, the terms of its repayment and the cost of insurance.



For some active people, an important incentive will be the opportunity to use Far Eastern capital as a subsidy to start their own business (in addition to the opportunities associated with access to the "Far Eastern hectare") or to receive education on the desired profile.

The possibility of obtaining Far Eastern capital will seriously affect the migratory sentiments of the permanent population. From the point of view of economic logic, it will be wrong to leave the Far East if, for example, in the next few years many local workers get the right to a targeted subsidy comparable to the average per capita salary for the year.

A special attraction of this subsidy for local residents will be that its investment in the framework of the supplementary pension scheme in the future will allow receiving an increased pension.

In other words, thanks to the Far Eastern capital program, the principle "you work in the Far East will be realized - you get not only a high salary, but also a big subsidy."

- Large-scale investments due to Far Eastern capital will provide a significant multiplier effect, the basis of which will be the inflow of additional funds, the source of which will be the savings of citizens themselves and mortgage loans taken. As the experience of previous years shows, the ruble of investments financed by the state in the Far East provided inflow of 5-7 rubles from other sources. Therefore, there is every reason to expect that the financing of the Far Eastern capital program will provide the economy of the macroregion with a powerful investment momentum.

In addition, investments in housing construction, the growth of which should be expected in the first place, will sharply increase the demand for a number of goods and services. The volumes of construction and procurement of construction materials will quickly grow, then purchases of furniture and household appliances. Stimulated also the development of all related industries - transport, the development of construction materials, metallurgy, timber processing, repair and maintenance. A serious impetus is the development of such areas as energy, communications, financial banking, wholesale and retail trade, housing and communal services.

At the same time, due to the specificity of housing construction and housing and communal services (high profitability of using local resources), a very significant part of the demand associated with it will be met by regional producers and suppliers. The consequence of production growth will be a significant increase in tax revenues to budgets of all levels (Table 3).

- The program of Far Eastern capital will ensure the launch of very powerful mechanisms of market self-management. As experience has shown, related to mother capital, as well as experience with housing certificates for military and young scientists of the Russian Academy of Sciences, the implementation of such programs does not require the creation of a large bureaucracy. Existing structures of the state and large banks, working on relatively simple rules and carrying out cross-checking, quickly and quite normally organize the process. And people who want to invest their money to invest in housing, rather soon begin to develop their resources.

The active inclusion of the population in resolving their housing problems will stimulate both the attraction of funds from other sources (their own savings, bank loans) to citizens, and the increase in the labor activity of workers aimed at obtaining additional income needed to pay for the housing they buy. At the same time, no special additional impulses from the state are required - the economic process will start on its own.

POSSIBLE FORMAT OF FAR EASTERN CAPITAL

- The amount of capital.

This size should be sufficient to solve any major family task. For example, related to the improvement of housing conditions. In this regard, it is desirable that the subsidy paid is approximately 20-30% of the cost of a standard two-room apartment (per family, according to the average price for a macroregion). This amount, as a rule, allows the family to pay the initial installment for a mortgage taken to buy a new apartment.

In our opinion, at present, the amount corresponds to the specified requirements of approximately 500 thousand rubles (in prices 2016). The final decision on the size of Far Eastern capital should be made by the Russian government.

The main conditions for issuing Far Eastern capital, in our opinion, should be as follows:

- The order of issuing Far Eastern capital and the size of the annual quota for its issuance are determined by the Russian government.

- Quotas for obtaining Far Eastern capital must first be allocated to provide qualified employees of TORs and investment projects recognized as priority for the macroregion.

- Recipients of Far Eastern capital should be exclusively Russian citizens of working age who are constantly working in the TOPs and within the framework of priority investment projects in the territory of the Far Eastern Federal District.

STAGES OF THE PROGRAM

In the period from 2017 to 2021, it is proposed to implement a pilot stage of the program, aimed at attracting labor resources to the TORs and investment projects that are especially important for the macro-region. The number of allocated quotas for Far Eastern capital during this period is proposed to increase in stages - from 2 500 people per year to 12 500 people per year. In the period from 2022g. on 2035. it is proposed to increase the number of participants in the program by expanding the number of supported investment projects and to bring the annual quota for the allocation of Far Eastern capital to 35 000 people.

ASSESSMENT OF FINANCIAL REQUIREMENTS AND EXPECTED EFFECTS

When implementing the basic scenario of the Far Eastern capital program, the need for financing will grow from 1,25 billion rubles. in 2017 to 16,25 billion rubles. in 2028. Since 2029, the annual costs for the program will be 17,5 billion rubles. The total costs of the project in the period from 2017 to 2035 will be 228,8 billion rubles. (excluding indexing). Forecast calculations show that a large-scale social, economic and budgetary effect will be achieved through the implementation of the Far Eastern capital program (see Table 3).

Table 3. The forecasted results of the implementation of the Far Eastern capital program
number
p / p
Indicator of the program
Expected Result
Note
1.
Number of highly skilled workers,
attracted to the Far East within the framework of
program for the period 2017-2035gg.
458
thousand people.

2.
The total number of residents who moved to
The Far East thanks to the program for
period 2017-2035YY.
620
thousand people.
Provided that 50%
employees, attracted
to implementation at
priority projects,
come from other
regions of Russia
3.
Total expenses
budget for the implementation of the program for 2017-
2035gg.
228,8
billion rubles.

4.
Total increase in incomes
state budget for 2017-2035gg.
237,8
billion rubles.

5.
Excess of income of state
budget over expenditures for the period 2017-
2035gg.
9
billion rubles.

6.
The total increase in Russia's GDP,
due to program implementation
Far East capital, for the period of 2017-
2035gg.
785
billion rubles.


The first significant effects from the implementation of the program will be manifested in the short term. According to expert estimates, thanks to the implementation of the Far Eastern capital program, the number of new employees with an average monthly salary of 56 thousand rubles. a month and up in 2021 g. will be 18,8 thousand. As a result of budgetary effects, expressed through the growth of personal income tax, social deductions, VAT, income tax, property tax, etc., already in 2021 there will be an increase in budget revenues at the level of 2 billion rubles, in 2030 the increase will be 19,3 billion rubles., In 2035 year - 35 billion rubles.

The additional increase in industrial production due to the implementation of the Far Eastern capital program is estimated at about 11,6 billion rubles. for 2021, in 111 billion rubles. for 2030. and 200 billion rubles. for 2035 year (in 2016 prices).



In the longer term, the full payback of the Far Eastern capital program in terms of the ratio of budget expenditures to additional budget revenues is clearly visible - total additional budget revenues for the period 2017-2035. will amount to 237,8 billion rubles. Even more significant will be the macroeconomic effects generated by the implementation of the program. By 2035, the program will provide over 115 billion rubles. an additional increase in Russia's GDP per year. At the same time, the accumulated additional GDP growth for the period 2017-2035. will be 785 billion rubles. This amount corresponds to 24,5% of the annual gross regional product of the Far Eastern Federal District. In other words, the Far Eastern capital program itself will increase the GRP of the DFO approximately by 1,0-1,5% per year, which means that its impact will be of a macroeconomic scale.

Table 4. The main forecast indicators of the Far Eastern capital program
Year
Number of people involved
highly qualified
employees, thousand people.
Costs
budget,
billion rubles.
Growth
income
budget,
billion rubles.
Russia's GDP growth,
conditional
program, billion rubles.
2017
2,5
1,3
0,1
0,3
2018
5,0
2,5
0,3
1,0
2019
7,5
3,8
0,7
2,3
2020
10,0
5,0
1,3
4,1
2021
12,5
6,3
2,0
6,5
2022
17,5
8,8
3,0
9,8
2023
20,0
10,0
4,2
13,9
2024
22,5
11,3
5,7
18,8
2025
25,0
12,5
7,4
24,4
2026
27,5
13,8
9,3
30,7
2027
30,0
15,0
11,5
37,7
2028
32,5
16,3
13,9
45,6
2029
35,0
17,5
16,5
54,4
2030
35,0
17,5
19,3
63,8
2031
35,0
17,5
22,3
73,6
2032
35,0
17,5
25,3
83,5
2033
35,0
17,5
28,4
93,9
2034
35,0
17,5
31,6
104,6
2035
35,0
17,5
35,0
115,8
Total
458
228,8
237,8
785


Table 5. The ratio between the price of a standard apartment (54 sq. M.) And the proposed amount of Far Eastern capital
Subject / Indicator
The price of an apartment, thousand.
rubles
Share of capital of the capital in the price
apartments,%


Primary
market
Secondary
market
Primary
market
Secondary
market

Russian Federation
2783
3039
18
16,5
Far Eastern Federal District
3498
3933
14,3
12,7
Saha Republic
(Yakutia)
3867
4538
12,9
11
Kamchatka
3814
3278
13,1
15,3
Primorsky Krai
3411
4624
14,7
10,8
Khabarovsk Krai
3281
3235
15,2
15,5
Amur Region
3081
3031
16,2
16,5
Magadan region
2970
2792
16,8
17,9
Sakhalin Region
4824
4331
10,4
11,5
Jewish autonomous
area
2224
2303
22,5
21,7

MAIN CONCLUSIONS

1) Historical experience shows that a large-scale influx of people into the Far East is possible only through the provision of significant economic benefits and preferences for settlers and the permanent population. At the same time, the key factor determining the willingness of people to live and work in the Far East has always been the opportunity to solve personal housing and / or land issues.

2) In the conditions of a market economy, the most rapid and effective way of solving the housing problem should be considered the purchase of commercial housing through mortgage lending. The main problem hampering the large-scale introduction of mortgages in the Far East is the need to pay too high an initial contribution for housing loans.

3) Payment of Far Eastern capital in most cases allows you to solve the problem of the initial installment of mortgage loans.

4) Linking payments of Far Eastern capital to work in the TOPs and within the framework of priority investment projects makes it possible to provide the most promising directions of the economic development of the Far East as a matter of priority in providing qualified labor resources.

5) The implementation of the Far Eastern capital program provides a significant macroeconomic effect equal to 22% of the annual GRP of the Far Eastern Federal District, and full payback of state budget expenditures to 2035. At the same time, budgetary revenues from the implementation of the program will begin to exceed budget expenditures for the program as early as 2030. Financing of the program can be fully ensured at the expense of a part of the increment of the mineral extraction tax, which will be collected in the Far East in the period up to 2035.

Thus, the program of Far Eastern capital can become one of the key factors capable of ensuring the solution of demographic problems and the outstripping socio-economic development of the Far East.

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