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To be elected

EastRussia analyzes why the governors needed to go to early elections

To be elected

In the Russian regions - the massive resignation of governors: six pieces over the past week. Among them are the heads of the Irkutsk region Sergei Eroschenko (powers expire in 2017) and the Kamchatka Territory Vladimir Ilyukhin (there was another year left). Governors ahead of schedule and voluntarily terminate their powers to get 13 September support of the population in regional elections, but for now they will work with the prefix "Vrio".

Update credibility

The governors are meeting with Vladimir Putin, asking him for permission to hold early elections. During the week, the president accepted the resignation of the six heads of regions, and in the next two weeks he will have several more meetings with the governors.

President's press secretary Dmitry Peskov explained the mass retirement by the fact that the governors want to be elected, not appointed. "There are governors who have normal indicators, and they try to be elected to renew the credit of trust, that is, not to remain appointed and confirmed by legislative assemblies, and, of course, they tend to be elected," Peskov told reporters . Another reason for this decision, according to him, is the desire to save budget funds. The combined elections of the governor and the Legislative Assembly are cheaper. Although, for example, in the Irkutsk region, local elections took place last year.

Dmitry Peskov agreed with journalists that the candidates who will approach the elections with the prefix "vrio" have a certain credit of trust. But he stressed that this circumstance does not set unequal conditions for the other candidates for the post of head of the region: "In the region, of course, there must be an acting president, the region should not lose its growth dynamics. And to whom, as if not to the incumbent governor, it is better to do it all. A lot of time before the election campaign, and when this campaign begins, then everyone will have equal opportunities. "

Calmly and predictably

Political scientist Yevgeniy Minchenko does not seem to find mass dismissals strange, the motivation of the governors is quite understandable: "To be honest, I do not see what the novelty is here. The practice of the resignations of governors with the subsequent access to the elections has not been the first year. Last year there was a massive wave of resignations, the motivation remained exactly the same, which was: to increase the level of legitimacy of the heads of regions, to create an opportunity for them to be more stable and confident in themselves. Plus to unload the federal election cycle from overlapping with regional elections, I mean 2016-2018 years - when elections to the State Duma and the president take place. I would not be surprised if two current governors lost the election, why not, this can also happen. If we take the Kamchatka Territory, the Irkutsk Region, I think everything will be calm and predictable there. "

Associate Professor of the Faculty of Social Sciences of the National Research University "Higher School of Economics" Alexei Titkov also sees no riddle in the resignations of governors. In his opinion, two sides are equally interested in this development of events: both the governors themselves and the presidential administration: "The interest of the governors in the early elections is due to the fact that now the situation for elections is generally favorable, the government has a high rating, plus a relatively prosperous economic situation. What it will be in a year or two, it's difficult to predict. Therefore, it is understandable to be re-elected now. For the average person the situation looks quite stable, more or less people have forgotten about the complexity of the end of last year. And what is important, now there is a rule for elections, which is very beneficial for the governors - the municipal filter. If necessary, it allows you to screen out uncomfortable rivals, and even not so much opposition ones - they are easier with them, as some of the regional elite or business. From the point of view of the presidential administration, the interest is that ahead of the elections to the State Duma, ahead of the presidential elections and there are reasons that they do not coincide with the elections of the heads of regions. " Titkov explains that in the event of a combination of elections, the governors begin to be distracted by their election campaign, think less about the main campaign, nationwide, and agitate for the ruling party or the president more handy than the popular governor with a high rating. "This logic was described approximately three years ago in the report of one of the analytical centers close to the presidential administration, it does not hide. As for the cost of the election, I do not think that saving money plays any significant role here, "Titkov stressed.

The expert does not predict the problems of the Amur region, on the whole the situation there is stable. In the Kamchatka Territory, the bulk of voters live in Petropavlovsk-Kamchatsky, there is a long tradition of protest voting, even from the time of perestroika, but Ilyukhin Titkov does not see strong rivals in Vladimir Ilyukhin. "In the Irkutsk region, the situation is the most difficult: Sergei Eroschenko is little popular primarily among regional elites, with whom he managed to spoil relations during the period of governorship. This is the head of the region, which is more inclined to press and resolve issues by force than to negotiate, as was customary in the Irkutsk region earlier. Voters of the region as a whole are also independent enough, they can present surprises. But despite this, the previous practice will outweigh the previous practice: since 2012, all the heads of regions, even the weak, with a dubious reputation, have been re-elected in the first round, who with a more convincing result, who with less, "the expert predicts.

Alexei Titkov has no doubt that Oleg Kozhemyako will surely win the elections in Sakhalin. He is an experienced politician with a lot of successful election campaigns, starting with the Primorsky Territory. The Jewish Autonomous Region is generally quite a calm region: "If there are any surprises and can happen, it is only because they can calculate that the campaign will be won by itself and will not be invested in it. I think Alexander Levintal will win the elections already in the first round, there is a common problem for all regions of the Far East - a historically low turnout and lower support for the ruling candidates, whether presidential candidates, governors, or parties, compared to other regions. current market conditions, with the support of candidates for president, I think these problems will be successfully overcome "as a whole.

Political character

The Vice President of the Center for Political Technologies Rostislav Turovsky is confident that there was no urgent need for a large number of early election campaigns this year. According to him, saving money is an argument only for the general public and it does not stand up to criticism, since it is not money that could affect other spending items. Mass resignations are of a political nature: “Last year there was an agiotage associated with the intensification of the crisis processes in the regions, respectively, with the fears of the governors, that the worsening situation will affect their ratings and may lead to increased competition. This year, in fact, it turns out that the federal center, firstly, succumbed to gubernatorial lobbying (the governors want to get elected as soon as possible), and secondly, indirectly acknowledged that the financial and economic situation in the regions will deteriorate and we must hurry before the ratings of the authorities crawl down ".

For the Far East, this motif is pronounced. If no decision is taken on Buryatia, only in this region direct elections will not be held yet. "If we talk about specific personalities, then Ilyukhin and Eroshchenko are quite experienced and punchy leaders who managed to establish good relations with the presidential administration. Actually, for this reason they received a "green light" for the elections. The situation with Ilyukhin was simpler, he began to demonstrate his interest in elections long enough and got a good idea on the federal agenda. Therefore, he had every chance to break through the solution of his interests, he did it. With Eroschenko the situation was more complicated, because the region is not easy, with intra-elite conflicts, and Eroshchenko's positions there are not so strong, "Turovsky says. - But, apparently, there were arguments in favor of holding early elections there, because at this stage, from my point of view, Eroshchenko managed to stabilize the situation after the municipal elections, to reach an agreement with the main part of the elites and with these arguments to convince the Kremlin In holding early elections. In this context, just and interesting is the head of Buryatia Vyacheslav Nogovitsyn. In his region, the conflicts have assumed a protracted and public character, the splits in the elites are noticeable and obvious. This clearly complicates the decision on early elections and its prospects to remain the head of the region. "

According to plan

The Amur Region, Sakhalin, the Jewish Autonomous District - from Rostislav Turovsky's point of view, relatively competitive election campaigns are possible in all these regions because there has been a change of governors everywhere, and on Sakhalin and in the Jewish Autonomous Region governors - and completely new to these Regions people. Therefore, some voters will still be ready to vote for opposition candidates, the political scientist believes. On the other hand, there is no certainty with these candidates everywhere: "For example, in the case of Sakhalin, it is not at all clear who can act as the opposition of Kozhemyako. Given his stiffness and assertiveness, he will be able to overcome the resistance, even if it will. But I would like to stress once again that it may not be, because there are no strong candidates who could have advanced against it. "

In the case of the EAO and the Amur Region, the level of competition may ultimately be higher, primarily due to the efforts of the Communist Party and the LDPR, since they have a good electoral base in these regions. They can expose sufficiently strong and visible candidates and gain a lot of votes. "The Communist Party will be able to do this in the Amur region, and in the Jewish, the LDPR at least in the Amur region will be able to make a statement. On the other hand, temporarily executing - Levintal and Kozlov - not so strong and bright personalities, so they will have to develop, gain popularity, win political points. It will not be easy to do this because they are not charismatic leaders. The final result of the elections will be in favor of the current heads of regions, but there is the possibility for the opposition to get a substantial number of votes in the EAO and the Amur Region, "Rostislav Turovsky said.

In Kamchatka, a political analyst does not foresee competition yet, in the Irkutsk region it is likely to be somewhat more substantial, but in any case, the governor will be calmly re-elected: “Decisions were made about who will remain in the governor’s posts after passing through the election procedure. Of course, we are talking about the legitimization of the current governors, and they are selected by the president through the appointment of the acting, so the key decision has already been made, it must be confirmed by voters. There will be no surprises in the sense of defeat for the current heads of regions. Surprises can come only from the point of view of votes that opponents will gain. ”

Election of governors will be held 13 September, a single day of voting. In the 10 regions, the elections will be planned - the powers of the governors expire there, in the DFO, the Jewish Autonomous Region is among them. Unscheduled elections in the Far East will be held in the Sakhalin region (Alexander Khoroshavin, suspected of receiving a large bribe, resigned, he is now under investigation), in the Amur region (Governor Oleg Kozhemyako was appointed interim head of the Sakhalin region), in the Kamchatka region and the Irkutsk region.

In the elections of 2014, already in the first round, the current leaders of the regions won. Last year, governors also asked the president in large numbers to resign.

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