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ATB: bankrupt or not bankrupt?
On the rating of the bank from Fitch - Dmitry Shcherbakov
Dmitry ShcherbakovEditor in Chief EastRussia
It would probably be correct to say a few words about the recent news (arising from the filing of several federal publications): the international rating agency Fitch is still confident of the possibility of the bankruptcy of one Far Eastern bank - the Asia-Pacific Bank, or ATB. And ATB in the Far East is supposedly a magnitude, so many people are worried. However, let's see.
Posts on the rating of Fitch continue to appear in local media so far - here, for example, "East-Media" was noted literally 21 November with reference to Vedomosti, and the portal Vostok.Today even gives comment to own expert.
The first thing I want to note. Fitch Ratings announced that the default of the bank is likely (assigned to it the CCC rating), back in November 2016. ATB then had a story with a "daughter" called M2M Private Bank, who is interested, you can read the same Vedomosti a year ago. Thus, the situation for the year has not actually changed.
Second: what is Fitch really saying?
Here Original message from 14 November, and the company transferred it 16 November - last Thursday. That's when the news came down.
To further understand the situation, I will explain two terms. The Issuer Default Rating (IDR) is an issuer default rating that takes into account possible support from the authorities or the “parent” business structure. The Viability Rating (VR) is an individual credit rating (excluding support), or a sustainability rating. Both are ranked on a scale from highest to lowest - from AAA to D (or F). The last is the bottom, default, bankruptcy. The CAS is the pre-default stage, below CC and C (and then D). This is Fitch’s system.
With ratings like AAA, AA or even A- in Russia, trouble. Or rather - no way. Even for large banks, the situation is much more fig. In Sber, for example, and IDR, and VR has the value BBB-. And Gazprombank has BB + and BB-. This means, for example, that Gazprombank needs only to lower its rating (down the chain) to positions B +, B, B- - and the next will be the CAS.
Let's return to ATB.
Fitch retained the CCC rating for IDB. This means, the agency explains, that the bank's default "is a real possibility, given the weak capitalization." However, the bank "continues to service its obligations and has acceptable liquidity reserves". But in the next 6 months - not a fact that will be able to ensure compliance with the requirements of the Central Bank.
As for the VR rating, let me quote Fitch. ATB still has a "significant shortage of capital". "In May 2017, the agency lowered the stability rating of ATB after the license was revoked from its 100-percent subsidiary banking structure M2M. Today, the ATB depends on the provision of the CBR with a regulatory easing in respect of the reservation of a loan issued by M2M, without which the bank will violate the minimum regulatory requirements for capitalization. "
In other words, if ATB now provided 100-percent coverage of the loan with M2M reserves, the two basic indicators of the bank - fixed capital and total capital - would fall below the minimum allowable (3,1% and 6,1%). But now, when covered in 32%, they are within the permissible range. The Central Bank, Fitch reminds, provided a temporary regulatory easing regarding the reservation of this loan until the end of 2017, and ATB has a plan on how to do it.
The second risk of the bank is related to "loans to related parties, which, according to regulatory reporting, are reserved for today at 50%." "Except for the above, the remaining loans have acceptable quality, which indicates a reasonable prospect of sustainability, provided that the bank successfully restores its capitalization." "The liquidity stock is also adequate: liquid assets cover acceptable 27% of customer accounts. At the same time, the liquidity of ATB could be under pressure if investors begin to feel ever more worried about the prospects for the bank's stability after violating capital requirements, "Fitch concludes.
So, all the magic is that investors do not panic. As usual.
Now the question number three: why was everyone worried about ATB?
According to the Central Bank of Russia, 01.09.2017 359 506 thousand rubles were placed on 539 in the Far Eastern Federal District on accounts of banks registered in the district territory. customer accounts in rubles (of which 297 193 513 thousand rubles are deposits of natural persons) and more 53 750 534 thousand rubles. means in currency (29 132 371 thousand rubles - contributions of physical persons). In total - something about 413,25 billion rubles. Commitments to the population - 326,3 billion rubles.
I emphasize that this is among the banks registered in the region, that is, local banks. ATB - one of them (registration at the bank in Blagoveshchensk). There are only 17 left in the entire Far East (those who do not believe, see the statistics of the Central Bank). That is, without Sberbank, VTB24, GPB and others - in the “Far Eastern” banks, which are considered regional.
Now we look at the last banking rating of Interfax.
|Organization||Region||Funds of individuals||Deposits of individuals||Settlement accounts of individuals||Individuals' funds in% to|
|current. val.||meas.%||number||current. val.||meas.%|
|ATB||AmurskObl||64 208 361,00||-8,58%||41||59 313 666,00||-11,12%||4 894 695,00||65,10|
As can be seen from the table, according to the results of the third quarter, the funds of citizens on 64,2 billion rubles were placed in ATB.
This is 19,6% of the overall indicator.
The fifth part of citizens' funds, placed in regional banks of the Far Eastern Federal District (without taking into account Sberbank and other "feds", I remind) is at ATB. No wonder that the people got agitated: the bank is rather big.
But the reasons for the unrest among the depositors and customers of the bank is not more than a year ago.
Although I personally choose a more stable bank.