Irkutsk
Ulan-Ude

Blagoveshchensk
Chita
Yakutsk

Birobidzhan
Vladivostok
Khabarovsk

Magadan
Yuzhno-Sakhalinsk

Anadyr
Petropavlovsk-
Kamchatsky
Moscow

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"And we will go to the North"

The inflow of population in the Far East goes only to two subjects

The statistics bodies of nine DFO subjects published data on the influx-outflow of the population for January-April 2018. EastRussia once again studied the migration flows and regretfully states: despite the investment "achievements" of the macroregion and the positive dynamics of the two northern entities, the Kamchatka Territory and the Chukotka Autonomous District, the general demographic break still does not smell. From the Far East, people are still leaving as much as they come, and they continue to lose their permanent population.

Photo: shutterstock.com
The demographic challenge is still the key one for the Russian authorities, which declare the "accelerated" development of the Far East. Attraction of private investment, one of the main tasks of the Ministry for the Development of the Russian Far East, in theory, should entail first a halt in the migration outflow, and then a gradual increase in the population in eastern Russia. By 2025, we recall that, according to optimistic forecasts, the Far Eastern Federal District can get plus 50 thousand residents due to natural growth and another plus 250 thousand due to migration. However, so far the demographic statistics are ruthless: the Far Eastern Federal District, which demonstrated the best investment inflow among federal districts in 2017, continues to lose in the number of permanent residents. 

In 2017, it would seem that there was a turning point in the migration balance - the outflow did not stop, but slowed down. But the beginning of 2018 put everything in its place again: over the past year, 20 thousand fewer people live in the Far East, taking into account those leaving and dying. 

The dynamics of the population in the Far Eastern Federal District (Rosstat)
Year
The population of the Far Eastern Federal District at 1 January, pers.
Loss, people
2015
6 211 021

2016
6 194 696
16 052
2017
6 182 679
12 290
2018
+6 162 427
20 252
The negative migration balance of all nine subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District is far from news: the migration decline in population, as EastRussia has already written more than once, was observed in most subjects of the Russian Federation within the borders of the Far East both in 2016 and in 2017.  

Data on migration for 2016-2017 years (Rosstat)
 Subject DFO
Increase / decrease in 2016 year
Increase / decrease in 2017 year
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
-4153%
-4649%
Amur Region
-3270%
-2104%
Primorsky Krai
-3209%
-5591%
Kamchatka
-1805%
544
Jewish Autonomous Region
-1602%
-1943%
Khabarovsk Krai
-1586%
-3690%
Chukotka
-516%
-656%
Magadan region
-502%
-1398%
Sakhalin Region
-487%
2387 *
* - data for January-November 2017 years

The first four months of 2018 showed that only one constituent entity of the Far Eastern Federal District, Kamchatka Krai, was able to maintain the positive migration balance received in 2017. Over the past year, 544 more people arrived in it than left, in January-April 2018 - 426 more people. 

The migration balance with a plus sign was also shown by Chukotka (as a result of the January-April movements, there was an 61 resident). 

The rest of the subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District continue to lose population due to migration processes. Moreover, these losses are nowhere less than four or five hundred people, and in Yakutia and the Khabarovsk Territory they exceeded a thousand people. Primorye is still among the leaders in terms of migration activity (arrival and departure), in second place is the Khabarovsk Territory, in third place is Yakutia. 

Data on migration in the Far Eastern Federal District during the first four months of 2018 (Rosstat)
 Subject DFO
Arrived, people.
Dropped out, man.
Migration balance
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
11272
12562
-1290%
Amur Region
8437
9212
-775%
Primorsky Krai
21428
21941
-513%
Kamchatka
4340
3914
426
Jewish Autonomous Region
956
1414
-458%
Khabarovsk Krai
14125
15465
-1340%
Chukotka
1478
1417
61
Magadan region
2157
2788
-631%
Sakhalin Oblast *
4459
4926
-467%
* - data for January-March 2018 years

It is significant that the natural increase, that is, the excess of fertility over mortality, according to the data for four months of 2018, is observed only in two subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District: in the Republic of Sakha (Yakutia) and the Chukotka Autonomous Okrug. 

Data on natural increase in the Far Eastern Federal District during the first four months of the year 2018 (Rosstat)
 Subject DFO
Was born
Died
Natural increase / decrease
The Republic of Sakha (Yakutia)
4253
2590
1663
Amur Region
2885
3728
-843%
Primorsky Krai
6419
9002
-2583%
Kamchatka
1137
1154
-17%
Jewish Autonomous Region
604
779
-175%
Khabarovsk Krai
4868
5802
-934%
Chukotka
213
193
20
Magadan region
434
543
-109%
Sakhalin Oblast *
1496
1624
-128%
* - data for January-March 2018 years

Thus, according to the data of four months, the migration loss in Yakutia is compensated by natural growth, the migration inflow in Kamchatka is weakened by natural decline, and the migratory and natural tributaries are formed in Chukotka at once. The remaining subjects of the Far Eastern Federal District continue to lose the population, making the authorities' plans to turn the outflow of residents from the Far East into an inflow of less feasible. 
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